ScoreProb
Liga III - Serie 1 Romania Group 1 - 12 2026

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ vs Viitorul Onesti

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ Home · Elo 1,405
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Viitorul Onesti Away · Elo 1,514
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Viitorul Onesti win
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ win
36.7%
Draw
23.0%
Viitorul Onesti winPick
40.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.2%
No54.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.9%
Under 2.548.1%

How much we know

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ history41 matches
Viitorul Onesti history36 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.4%). Picks in that band won 45.5% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,228 matches.

Why Viitorul Onesti are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Viitorul Onesti are rated 108 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,514 against 1,405. On rating alone Viitorul Onesti would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Viitorul Onesti score more

    1.00 goals a game over 41 matches for Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ, against 1.14 over 36 for Viitorul Onesti.

  • Viitorul Onesti concede fewer

    Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ concede 2.02 a game, Viitorul Onesti 1.14.

  • Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ games more often go over 2.5 goals

    59% of Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ matches, against 36% for Viitorul Onesti. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 13 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
Viitorul Onesti@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1405.4
ELO
1513.7
41
ELO · Matches
36
1405.4
Current Team ELO
1513.7
1513.7
Current Opponent ELO
1405.4
-108.3
Current ELO Difference
108.3
0.35
Expected score
0.65
41
History Matches
36
-0.13
Residual Mean
0.03
41.52
Overperformance
51.88
-0.32
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
0.80
0.60
Goals for per game
0.40
3.40
Goals against per game
1.60
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.20
PPG
1.40
0.60
Goals for per game
0.70
2.80
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.78
2.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.60
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.73
Overall performance9 signals
90
41
Matches
36
0.95
PPG
1.47
24.4%
Win rate
41.7%
22.0%
Draw rate
22.2%
53.7%
Loss rate
36.1%
85.4%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
58.5%
Over 2.5 rate
36.1%
26.8%
Over 3.5 rate
19.4%
2.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.07
Venue performance10 signals
100
18
Matches
16
0.94
PPG
1.19
22.2%
Win rate
31.3%
27.8%
Draw rate
25.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
43.8%
88.9%
Over 1.5 rate
68.8%
61.1%
Over 2.5 rate
37.5%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
2.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.23
18
History Matches
16
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.00
Goals for per game
1.14
63.4%
Scoring rate
58.3%
46.3%
BTTS rate
25.0%
1.06
Goals for per game
0.94
72.2%
Scoring rate
37.5%
55.6%
BTTS rate
12.5%
41
History Matches
36
1.00
Goals Mean
1.14
1.01
Goals Std
1.25
63.4%
Scored 1+ rate
58.3%
24.4%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
9.8%
Scored 3+ rate
13.9%
1.06
Venue Goals Mean
0.94
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
2.02
Goals against per game
1.14
78.0%
Conceding rate
55.6%
1.83
Goals against per game
1.25
77.8%
Conceding rate
56.3%
41
History Matches
36
2.02
Conceded Mean
1.14
1.75
Conceded Std
1.23
56.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.9%
36.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.9%
1.83
Venue Conceded Mean
1.25
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
22.0%
Clean-sheet rate
44.4%
36.6%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
43.8%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
62.5%
22.0%
Clean-sheet rate
44.4%
36.6%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
43.8%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
62.5%
22.0%
Clean-sheet rate
44.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
41
History Matches
36
0.92
Result entropy
0.97
2.28
Goal Difference Std
2.07
7.97
Stability score
2.89
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
41
Eligible Matches
16
9
Lead Matches
5
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.70
Lead Points Retention
1.00
21
Trailing Matches
4
23.8%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
4.8%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
41
Halftime Coverage Matches
16
0.37
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.90
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.38
1.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
93.90
Rest days
86.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
21
Normal Rest History Matches
18
0.71
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
17
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.06
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.65
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.44
Portability PPG Std
0.10
0.89
Portability PPG Range
0.27
53.03
Portability Score
82.67
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
41
Clean History Matches
36
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-108.3
PPG-0.52
GF-0.14
GA0.89
PPG-0.24
PPG-0.60
PPG-1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.22
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.22
Failed-to-score rate-0.35
History Matches5
Goals Mean-0.14
Goals Std-0.24
Scored 1+ rate5.1%
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.12
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.14
History Matches5
Conceded Mean0.89
Conceded Std0.52
Clean-sheet rate-0.22
Conceded 2+ rate17.2%
Conceded 3+ rate22.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.58
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.02
History Matches5
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.21
Stability score5.08
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.13
Eligible Matches25
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.33
Lead Points Retention-0.30
Trailing Matches17
Non-loss rate23.8%
Trailing Win Rate4.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches25
First Half Goals For Mean-0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean0.40
Second Half Goals For Mean0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.50
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.34
Portability PPG Range0.62
Portability Score-29.64
Rest days7.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.62
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.59
Current Team ELO-108.3
Current Opponent ELO108.3
Current ELO Difference-216.6
Expected score-0.30
History Matches5
Residual Mean-0.16
Overperformance-10.36
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.32

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ

L
CSM FC Vaslui3–1Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ31 Oct · away
Pick: CSM FC Vaslui 52% · hit
L
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ0–2Târgu Secuiesc24 Oct · home
Pick: Târgu Secuiesc 44% · hit
D
Gheorgheni2–2Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ17 Oct · away
Pick: Gheorgheni 46% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Viitorul Onesti

D
Târgu Secuiesc2–2Viitorul Onesti31 Oct · away
Pick: Târgu Secuiesc 55% · missed
D
Viitorul Onesti2–2Paşcani24 Oct · home
Pick: Viitorul Onesti 61% · missed
D
Aerostar Bacau1–1Viitorul Onesti16 Oct · away
Pick: Viitorul Onesti 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ and Viitorul Onesti meet in Liga III - Serie 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ win 36.7%, draw 23.0%, Viitorul Onesti win 40.4%. The pick is Viitorul Onesti win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.9%. Both teams to score: 45.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.