ScoreProb
Serie A Women Italy Round 6 2026

Ternana W vs Fiorentina W

Ternana W Home · Elo 1,435
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Fiorentina W Away · Elo 1,516
Stadio Libero Liberati, Terni Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Fiorentina W win
Ternana W win
27.7%
Draw
25.7%
Fiorentina W winPick
46.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.4%
No46.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.3%
Under 2.548.7%

How much we know

Ternana W history24 matches
Fiorentina W history38 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Fiorentina W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Fiorentina W are rated 82 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,516 against 1,435. On rating alone Fiorentina W would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Fiorentina W score far more

    0.79 goals a game over 24 matches for Ternana W, against 1.34 over 38 for Fiorentina W.

  • Fiorentina W concede fewer

    Ternana W concede 1.92 a game, Fiorentina W 1.34.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    46% of Ternana W matches, against 47% for Fiorentina W. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ternana W
Fiorentina W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1434.8
ELO
1516.4
24
ELO · Matches
38
1434.8
Current Team ELO
1516.4
1516.4
Current Opponent ELO
1434.8
-81.54
Current ELO Difference
81.54
0.38
Expected score
0.62
24
History Matches
38
-0.13
Residual Mean
0.02
42.69
Overperformance
51.44
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.00
0.60
Goals for per game
1.80
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.50
0.90
Goals for per game
1.50
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.83
Overall performance9 signals
90
24
Matches
38
0.71
PPG
1.42
16.7%
Win rate
39.5%
20.8%
Draw rate
23.7%
62.5%
Loss rate
36.8%
70.8%
Over 1.5 rate
65.8%
45.8%
Over 2.5 rate
47.4%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
28.9%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.40
Venue performance10 signals
100
12
Matches
19
1.08
PPG
1.16
25.0%
Win rate
31.6%
33.3%
Draw rate
21.1%
41.7%
Loss rate
47.4%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
73.7%
41.7%
Over 2.5 rate
42.1%
41.7%
Over 3.5 rate
26.3%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
12
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.79
Goals for per game
1.34
50.0%
Scoring rate
71.1%
37.5%
BTTS rate
52.6%
1.25
Goals for per game
1.16
66.7%
Scoring rate
63.2%
50.0%
BTTS rate
47.4%
24
History Matches
38
0.79
Goals Mean
1.34
0.96
Goals Std
1.26
50.0%
Scored 1+ rate
71.1%
20.8%
Scored 2+ rate
34.2%
8.3%
Scored 3+ rate
21.1%
1.25
Venue Goals Mean
1.16
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.92
Goals against per game
1.34
79.2%
Conceding rate
73.7%
1.58
Goals against per game
1.53
75.0%
Conceding rate
84.2%
24
History Matches
38
1.92
Conceded Mean
1.34
1.41
Conceded Std
1.13
62.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.1%
29.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.2%
1.58
Venue Conceded Mean
1.53
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.9%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
36.8%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.9%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
36.8%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
24
History Matches
38
0.84
Result entropy
0.98
1.62
Goal Difference Std
1.40
16.33
Stability score
2.06
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
24
Eligible Matches
38
2
Lead Matches
11
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
72.7%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.82
15
Trailing Matches
11
6.7%
Non-loss rate
18.2%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
24
Halftime Coverage Matches
38
0.33
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
1.17
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
0.46
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.92
Rest days
76.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
11
Normal Rest History Matches
15
0.82
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.47
12
Long Rest History Matches
22
0.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.45
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
5
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.13
—
Portability PPG Range
0.30
—
Portability Score
79.36
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
24
Clean History Matches
38
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-81.54
PPG-0.71
GF-0.55
GA0.57
PPG-0.07
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-14
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate21.1%
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate9.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-14
Goals Mean-0.55
Goals Std-0.31
Scored 1+ rate-0.21
Scored 2+ rate-0.13
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean0.09
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.12
History Matches-14
Conceded Mean0.57
Conceded Std0.28
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate20.4%
Conceded 3+ rate16.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.06
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.00
History Matches-14
Result entropy-0.14
Goal Difference Std0.22
Stability score14.27
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.53
Eligible Matches-14
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate-0.23
Lead Points Retention-0.15
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.12
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches-14
First Half Goals For Mean-0.25
First Half Goals Against Mean0.54
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.30
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.65
Long Rest History Matches-10
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.79
Current Team ELO-81.54
Current Opponent ELO81.54
Current ELO Difference-163.1
Expected score-0.23
History Matches-14
Residual Mean-0.16
Overperformance-8.75
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ternana W

D
Ternana W1–1Como 1907 W31 Oct · home
Pick: Ternana W 58% · missed
L
AC Milan W3–0Ternana W24 Oct · away
Pick: AC Milan W 57% · hit
W
Ternana W1–0Lazio W17 Oct · home
Pick: Lazio W 48% · missed
L
Fiorentina W3–1Ternana W30 Aug · away
Pick: Fiorentina W 61% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Fiorentina W

L
Fiorentina W1–2Juventus W2 Nov · home
Pick: Juventus W 46% · hit
W
Parma W1–2Fiorentina W25 Oct · away
Pick: Fiorentina W 45% · hit
D
Como W1–1Fiorentina W17 Oct · away
Pick: Fiorentina W 40% · missed
W
Fiorentina W3–1Ternana W30 Aug · home
Pick: Fiorentina W 61% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Ternana W and Fiorentina W meet in Serie A Women on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadio Libero Liberati, Terni. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Ternana W win 27.7%, draw 25.7%, Fiorentina W win 46.6%. The pick is Fiorentina W win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.3%. Both teams to score: 53.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.