ScoreProb
Liga MX Mexico Round 16 2026

Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul

Tigres UANL Home · Elo 1,544
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Cruz Azul Away · Elo 1,617
Estadio Universitario, San Nicolas de los Garza Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Cruz Azul win
Tigres UANL win
32.0%
Draw
26.8%
Cruz Azul winPick
41.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.2%
No43.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.6%
Under 2.546.4%

How much we know

Tigres UANL history82 matches
Cruz Azul history89 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 14 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 23:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Cruz Azul are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Cruz Azul are rated 73 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,617 against 1,544. On rating alone Cruz Azul would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Cruz Azul score more

    1.46 goals a game over 82 matches for Tigres UANL, against 1.81 over 89 for Cruz Azul.

  • Defences are close

    Tigres UANL concede 1.11 a game, Cruz Azul 1.19.

  • Cruz Azul games more often go over 2.5 goals

    51% of Tigres UANL matches, against 62% for Cruz Azul. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Tigres UANL
Cruz Azul
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1544.3
ELO
1617.1
82
ELO · Matches
89
1544.3
Current Team ELO
1617.1
1617.1
Current Opponent ELO
1544.3
-72.74
Current ELO Difference
72.74
0.40
Expected score
0.60
82
History Matches
89
0.03
Residual Mean
0.06
52.11
Overperformance
55.30
-0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.20
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.70
10.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
0.77
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.11
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.11
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.22
Overall performance9 signals
90
82
Matches
89
1.51
PPG
1.92
40.2%
Win rate
53.9%
30.5%
Draw rate
30.3%
29.3%
Loss rate
15.7%
69.5%
Over 1.5 rate
83.1%
51.2%
Over 2.5 rate
61.8%
25.6%
Over 3.5 rate
31.5%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
Venue performance10 signals
100
41
Matches
43
2.10
PPG
1.72
61.0%
Win rate
44.2%
26.8%
Draw rate
39.5%
12.2%
Loss rate
16.3%
75.6%
Over 1.5 rate
86.0%
53.7%
Over 2.5 rate
58.1%
34.1%
Over 3.5 rate
27.9%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.16
41
History Matches
43
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.46
Goals for per game
1.81
72.0%
Scoring rate
88.8%
54.9%
BTTS rate
67.4%
2.07
Goals for per game
1.65
87.8%
Scoring rate
86.0%
58.5%
BTTS rate
72.1%
1.60
Goals for per game
1.60
100.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
80.0%
82
History Matches
89
1.46
Goals Mean
1.81
1.49
Goals Std
1.20
72.0%
Scored 1+ rate
88.8%
36.6%
Scored 2+ rate
53.9%
17.1%
Scored 3+ rate
27.0%
2.07
Venue Goals Mean
1.65
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.11
Goals against per game
1.19
69.5%
Conceding rate
71.9%
0.85
Goals against per game
1.26
63.4%
Conceding rate
76.7%
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
80.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
82
History Matches
89
1.11
Conceded Mean
1.19
0.99
Conceded Std
1.09
28.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.8%
13.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.9%
0.85
Venue Conceded Mean
1.26
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.5%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
11.2%
36.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
12.2%
Failed-to-score rate
14.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
30.5%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
11.2%
36.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
12.2%
Failed-to-score rate
14.0%
30.5%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
82
History Matches
89
0.99
Result entropy
0.90
1.78
Goal Difference Std
1.62
0.96
Stability score
10.27
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
82
Eligible Matches
89
20
Lead Matches
32
85.0%
Lead Win Rate
84.4%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.89
16
Trailing Matches
13
18.8%
Non-loss rate
61.5%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
23.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
82
Halftime Coverage Matches
89
0.55
First Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.91
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.97
0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.92
Rest days
76.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
15
Short Rest History Matches
19
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.11
48
Normal Rest History Matches
51
1.67
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.80
18
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.28
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.20
5
Current Competition Matches
5
0.80
Current Competition PPG
1.20
-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.40
7
Competition Season Count
10
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.34
Portability PPG Std
0.56
1.09
Portability PPG Range
1.67
59.18
Portability Score
47.37
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
82
Clean History Matches
89
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-72.74
PPG-0.41
GF-0.35
GA-0.08
PPG-0.40
PPG0.38
PPG0.00
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate2.4%
Failed-to-score rate16.8%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate13.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-7
Goals Mean-0.35
Goals Std0.29
Scored 1+ rate-0.17
Scored 2+ rate-0.17
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean0.42
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.21
History Matches-7
Conceded Mean-0.08
Conceded Std-0.10
Clean-sheet rate2.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate5.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.21
History Matches-7
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std0.17
Stability score-9.31
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.11
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches-12
Lead Win Rate0.6%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.43
Trailing Win Rate-0.17
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.21
Portability PPG Range-0.58
Portability Score11.81
Rest days1.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.77
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.14
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.72
Current Team ELO-72.74
Current Opponent ELO72.74
Current ELO Difference-145.5
Expected score-0.21
History Matches-7
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Tigres UANL

L
CF Pachuca3–0Tigres UANL31 Oct · away
Pick: CF Pachuca 41% · hit
L
Tigres UANL0–2Leon21 Oct · home
Pick: Tigres UANL 45% · missed
D
Guadalajara Chivas1–1Tigres UANL17 Oct · away
Pick: Guadalajara Chivas 47% · missed
D
Santos Laguna0–0Tigres UANL30 Aug · away
Pick: Tigres UANL 54% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Cruz Azul

W
Cruz Azul2–1Leon2 Nov · home
Pick: Cruz Azul 50% · hit
W
Club Queretaro1–3Cruz Azul26 Oct · away
Pick: Cruz Azul 41% · hit
D
U.N.A.M. - Pumas3–3Cruz Azul12 Oct · away
Pick: U.N.A.M. - Pumas 45% · missed
W
Necaxa1–3Cruz Azul29 Aug · away
Pick: Cruz Azul 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Tigres UANL and Cruz Azul meet in Liga MX on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 23:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Universitario, San Nicolas de los Garza. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Tigres UANL win 32.0%, draw 26.8%, Cruz Azul win 41.2%. The pick is Cruz Azul win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.6%. Both teams to score: 56.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.