ScoreProb
Liga MX Mexico Round 16 2026

Toluca vs Monterrey

Toluca Home · Elo 1,608
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Monterrey Away · Elo 1,573
Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Toluca win
Toluca winPick
43.5%
Draw
24.8%
Monterrey win
31.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.7%
No42.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.6%
Under 2.539.4%

How much we know

Toluca history74 matches
Monterrey history75 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 16 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 01:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Toluca are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Toluca are rated 35 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,608 against 1,573. On rating alone Toluca would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    2.01 goals a game over 74 matches for Toluca, against 1.83 over 75 for Monterrey.

  • Toluca concede fewer

    Toluca concede 1.08 a game, Monterrey 1.27.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    62% of Toluca matches, against 57% for Monterrey. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Toluca
Monterrey
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1608.2
ELO
1572.9
74
ELO · Matches
75
1608.2
Current Team ELO
1572.9
1572.9
Current Opponent ELO
1608.2
35.31
Current ELO Difference
-35.31
0.55
Expected score
0.45
74
History Matches
75
0.07
Residual Mean
0.05
55.69
Overperformance
53.80
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.80
1.60
Goals for per game
2.20
0.60
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.90
1.80
Goals for per game
2.20
1.20
Goals against per game
1.30
50.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.66
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.64
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.56
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.97
Overall performance9 signals
90
74
Matches
75
1.93
PPG
1.67
56.8%
Win rate
48.0%
23.0%
Draw rate
22.7%
20.3%
Loss rate
29.3%
75.7%
Over 1.5 rate
84.0%
62.2%
Over 2.5 rate
57.3%
40.5%
Over 3.5 rate
37.3%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
Venue performance10 signals
100
38
Matches
37
2.18
PPG
1.41
65.8%
Win rate
37.8%
21.1%
Draw rate
27.0%
13.2%
Loss rate
35.1%
81.6%
Over 1.5 rate
83.8%
68.4%
Over 2.5 rate
51.4%
47.4%
Over 3.5 rate
29.7%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
38
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.01
Goals for per game
1.83
79.7%
Scoring rate
86.7%
56.8%
BTTS rate
62.7%
2.29
Goals for per game
1.62
86.8%
Scoring rate
78.4%
63.2%
BTTS rate
59.5%
1.60
Goals for per game
2.40
80.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
74
History Matches
75
2.01
Goals Mean
1.83
1.44
Goals Std
1.28
79.7%
Scored 1+ rate
86.7%
62.2%
Scored 2+ rate
54.7%
41.9%
Scored 3+ rate
26.7%
2.29
Venue Goals Mean
1.62
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.08
Goals against per game
1.27
66.2%
Conceding rate
73.3%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.30
68.4%
Conceding rate
75.7%
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
74
History Matches
75
1.08
Conceded Mean
1.27
1.02
Conceded Std
1.07
29.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.0%
9.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.3%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.30
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
20.3%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
13.2%
Failed-to-score rate
21.6%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
33.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
20.3%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
13.2%
Failed-to-score rate
21.6%
33.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
74
History Matches
75
0.89
Result entropy
0.95
1.55
Goal Difference Std
1.68
10.53
Stability score
4.56
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
73
Eligible Matches
74
29
Lead Matches
34
89.7%
Lead Win Rate
76.5%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.82
13
Trailing Matches
16
53.8%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
38.5%
Trailing Win Rate
18.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
73
Halftime Coverage Matches
74
0.84
First Half Goals For Mean
0.97
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
1.16
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.53
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.91
Rest days
78.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
12
Short Rest History Matches
10
2.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.90
39
Normal Rest History Matches
42
1.62
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.69
22
Long Rest History Matches
22
2.32
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.59
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.45
5
Current Competition Matches
5
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.80
0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
10
Competition Season Count
9
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
8
0.14
Portability PPG Std
0.39
0.38
Portability PPG Range
1.25
78.33
Portability Score
56.10
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
74
Clean History Matches
75
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO35.31
PPG0.27
GF0.19
GA-0.19
PPG0.20
PPG0.78
PPG0.20
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate7.1%
Failed-to-score rate6.9%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate7.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.19
Goals Std0.16
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate7.5%
Scored 3+ rate15.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.67
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.50
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.19
Conceded Std-0.05
Clean-sheet rate7.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate0.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.44
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.13
Stability score5.97
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.41
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate13.2%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate28.8%
Trailing Win Rate19.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean0.30
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.20
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std-0.25
Portability PPG Range-0.87
Portability Score22.23
Rest days-0.09
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.43
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.08
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.73
Current Team ELO35.31
Current Opponent ELO-35.31
Current ELO Difference70.61
Expected score0.10
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.89
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Toluca

D
Leon1–1Toluca24 Oct · away
Pick: Toluca 40% · missed
D
Toluca2–2Club Tijuana22 Oct · home
Pick: Toluca 57% · missed
D
Toluca1–1Atletico San Luis18 Oct · home
Pick: Toluca 69% · missed
W
Toluca4–0FC Juarez31 Aug · home
Pick: Toluca 69% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Monterrey

W
Puebla1–4Monterrey22 Oct · away
Pick: Monterrey 47% · hit
W
Monterrey2–1CF Pachuca19 Oct · home
Pick: Monterrey 58% · hit
L
Monterrey1–3Atletico San Luis31 Aug · home
Pick: Monterrey 70% · missed
W
Monterrey2–1Chicago Fire26 Aug · home
Pick: Monterrey 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Toluca and Monterrey meet in Liga MX on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 01:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Toluca win 43.5%, draw 24.8%, Monterrey win 31.6%. The pick is Toluca win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.6%. Both teams to score: 57.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.