ScoreProb
Regionalliga - South Austria South - 14 2026

Tillmitsch vs Hartberg (Am)

Tillmitsch Home · Elo 1,565
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hartberg (Am) Away · Elo 1,481
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tillmitsch win
Tillmitsch winPick
77.6%
Draw
11.4%
Hartberg (Am) win
11.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.0%
No46.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.576.7%
Under 2.523.3%

How much we know

Tillmitsch history45 matches
Hartberg (Am) history3 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (77.6%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Tillmitsch are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Tillmitsch are rated 84 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,565 against 1,481. On rating alone Tillmitsch would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Tillmitsch score far more

    2.11 goals a game over 45 matches for Tillmitsch, against 0.67 over 3 for Hartberg (Am).

  • Tillmitsch concede fewer

    Tillmitsch concede 1.64 a game, Hartberg (Am) 2.33.

  • Tillmitsch games more often go over 2.5 goals

    76% of Tillmitsch matches, against 67% for Hartberg (Am). The model puts this match at 77% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Tillmitsch
Hartberg (Am)
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1564.7
ELO
1481.0
45
ELO · Matches
3
1564.7
Current Team ELO
1481.0
1481.0
Current Opponent ELO
1564.7
83.71
Current ELO Difference
-83.71
0.62
Expected score
0.38
45
History Matches
3
0.08
Residual Mean
-0.35
55.31
Overperformance
45.46
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.35
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
3
1.40
PPG
0.33
1.20
Goals for per game
0.67
1.20
Goals against per game
2.33
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
3
1.90
PPG
0.33
2.20
Goals for per game
0.67
1.40
Goals against per game
2.33
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.67
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.33
1.36
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.25
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
2.48
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.70
Overall performance9 signals
90
45
Matches
3
1.73
PPG
0.33
51.1%
Win rate
0.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
28.9%
Loss rate
66.7%
91.1%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
75.6%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
55.6%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
2.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
0.00
62.5%
Win rate
0.0%
12.5%
Draw rate
0.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
58.3%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
24
History Matches
2
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.11
Goals for per game
0.67
86.7%
Scoring rate
33.3%
68.9%
BTTS rate
33.3%
2.33
Goals for per game
0.00
87.5%
Scoring rate
0.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
1.67
Goals for per game
0.67
66.7%
Scoring rate
33.3%
66.7%
BTTS rate
33.3%
45
History Matches
3
2.11
Goals Mean
0.67
1.39
Goals Std
0.94
86.7%
Scored 1+ rate
33.3%
62.2%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
40.0%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
2.33
Venue Goals Mean
0.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.64
Goals against per game
2.33
80.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.33
Goals against per game
2.50
87.5%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
45
History Matches
3
1.64
Conceded Mean
2.33
1.51
Conceded Std
1.25
42.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
66.7%
20.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
33.3%
1.33
Venue Conceded Mean
2.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
45
History Matches
3
0.93
Result entropy
0.58
2.34
Goal Difference Std
1.70
6.82
Stability score
42.06
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
45
Eligible Matches
3
17
Lead Matches
1
76.5%
Lead Win Rate
0.0%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.33
12
Trailing Matches
2
16.7%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
3
0.93
First Half Goals For Mean
0.33
0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.33
1.18
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.33
0.96
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.13
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
24
Normal Rest History Matches
1
1.58
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.00
19
Long Rest History Matches
1
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.00
PPG
0.33
66.7%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.00
Current Competition PPG
0.33
0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.67
7
Competition Season Count
1
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.90
Portability PPG Std
—
2.38
Portability PPG Range
—
35.60
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
45
Clean History Matches
3
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO83.71
PPG1.40
GF1.44
GA-0.69
PPG1.67
PPG2.00
PPG1.07
PPG1.57
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches42
Clean-sheet rate20.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.53
History Matches22
Clean-sheet rate12.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.88
History Matches42
Goals Mean1.44
Goals Std0.44
Scored 1+ rate53.3%
Scored 2+ rate28.9%
Scored 3+ rate40.0%
Venue Goals Mean2.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.53
Recent 10 Goals Std0.66
History Matches42
Conceded Mean-0.69
Conceded Std0.26
Clean-sheet rate20.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.24
Conceded 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Conceded Mean-1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.93
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.11
History Matches42
Result entropy0.35
Goal Difference Std0.64
Stability score-35.24
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.24
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.78
Eligible Matches42
Lead Matches16
Lead Win Rate76.5%
Lead Points Retention0.49
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate16.7%
Trailing Win Rate8.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches42
First Half Goals For Mean0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.64
Second Half Goals For Mean0.84
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.33
Competition Season Count6
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Rest days-0.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches23
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.58
Long Rest History Matches18
Long Rest Points Per Match1.00
Current Team ELO83.71
Current Opponent ELO-83.71
Current ELO Difference167.4
Expected score0.24
History Matches42
Residual Mean0.42
Overperformance9.85
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.43

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Tillmitsch

L
Weiz5–0Tillmitsch30 Oct · away
Pick: Weiz 52% · hit
W
Tillmitsch3–1Allerheiligen23 Oct · home
Pick: Tillmitsch 68% · hit
L
Deutschlandsberger SC2–1Tillmitsch16 Oct · away
Pick: Deutschlandsberger SC 40% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Hartberg (Am)

W
Hartberg (Am)2–1Kalsdorf30 Oct · home
Pick: Kalsdorf 58% · missed
W
Hartberg (Am)2–0Weiz24 Oct · home
Pick: Weiz 50% · missed
W
Allerheiligen3–4Hartberg (Am)16 Oct · away
Pick: Allerheiligen 65% · missed
L
Hartberg (Am)1–4Allerheiligen30 Aug · home
Pick: Allerheiligen 47% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Tillmitsch and Hartberg (Am) meet in Regionalliga - South on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Tillmitsch win 77.6%, draw 11.4%, Hartberg (Am) win 11.0%. The pick is Tillmitsch win. Over 2.5 goals: 76.7%. Both teams to score: 54.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.