ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 Spain Group 18 - 10 2026

Toledo vs Marchamalo

Toledo Home · Elo 1,601
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Marchamalo Away · Elo 1,490
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Toledo win
Toledo winPick
54.7%
Draw
26.2%
Marchamalo win
19.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.6%
No53.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.3%
Under 2.554.7%

How much we know

Toledo history58 matches
Marchamalo history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.7%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Toledo are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Toledo are rated 112 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,601 against 1,490. On rating alone Toledo would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.47 goals a game over 58 matches for Toledo, against 1.32 over 50 for Marchamalo.

  • Toledo concede fewer

    Toledo concede 0.53 a game, Marchamalo 1.18.

  • Marchamalo games more often go over 2.5 goals

    33% of Toledo matches, against 46% for Marchamalo. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 19 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Toledo
Marchamalo
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1601.5
ELO
1489.9
58
ELO · Matches
50
1601.5
Current Team ELO
1489.9
1489.9
Current Opponent ELO
1601.5
111.5
Current ELO Difference
-111.5
0.66
Expected score
0.34
58
History Matches
50
0.09
Residual Mean
-0.02
56.79
Overperformance
48.80
-0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.40
0.80
Goals for per game
0.80
0.80
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.30
1.00
Goals for per game
0.80
0.50
Goals against per game
1.00
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.55
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.60
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.91
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.08
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
50
1.90
PPG
1.28
53.4%
Win rate
36.0%
29.3%
Draw rate
20.0%
17.2%
Loss rate
44.0%
55.2%
Over 1.5 rate
66.0%
32.8%
Over 2.5 rate
46.0%
19.0%
Over 3.5 rate
24.0%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
27
2.10
PPG
1.11
64.5%
Win rate
29.6%
16.1%
Draw rate
22.2%
19.4%
Loss rate
48.1%
64.5%
Over 1.5 rate
63.0%
45.2%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
29.0%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
2.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
31
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.47
Goals for per game
1.32
70.7%
Scoring rate
68.0%
27.6%
BTTS rate
44.0%
1.87
Goals for per game
1.33
77.4%
Scoring rate
63.0%
29.0%
BTTS rate
40.7%
58
History Matches
50
1.47
Goals Mean
1.32
1.51
Goals Std
1.39
70.7%
Scored 1+ rate
68.0%
36.2%
Scored 2+ rate
34.0%
19.0%
Scored 3+ rate
16.0%
1.87
Venue Goals Mean
1.33
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.53
Goals against per game
1.18
37.9%
Conceding rate
70.0%
0.65
Goals against per game
1.15
41.9%
Conceding rate
66.7%
58
History Matches
50
0.53
Conceded Mean
1.18
0.81
Conceded Std
0.99
12.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.0%
1.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.0%
0.65
Venue Conceded Mean
1.15
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
62.1%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
29.3%
Failed-to-score rate
32.0%
58.1%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
37.0%
62.1%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
29.3%
Failed-to-score rate
32.0%
58.1%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
37.0%
62.1%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
50
0.91
Result entropy
0.96
1.80
Goal Difference Std
1.79
9.19
Stability score
4.34
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
49
18
Lead Matches
15
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.84
8
Trailing Matches
10
25.0%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.26
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.93
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
168.0
Rest days
81.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
37
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.81
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.36
19
Long Rest History Matches
24
2.05
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.21
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.03
Portability PPG Std
0.13
0.06
Portability PPG Range
0.25
94.65
Portability Score
80.00
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO111.5
PPG0.62
GF0.15
GA-0.65
PPG0.99
PPG-0.60
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate32.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate24.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches8
Goals Mean0.15
Goals Std0.12
Scored 1+ rate2.7%
Scored 2+ rate2.2%
Scored 3+ rate3.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.54
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.95
History Matches8
Conceded Mean-0.65
Conceded Std-0.18
Clean-sheet rate32.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.24
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.33
History Matches8
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.01
Stability score4.85
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.83
Eligible Matches9
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate3.3%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate5.0%
Trailing Win Rate12.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches9
First Half Goals For Mean-0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.25
Second Half Goals For Mean0.30
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.42
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.10
Portability PPG Range-0.19
Portability Score14.65
Rest days86.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches12
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.45
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.84
Current Team ELO111.5
Current Opponent ELO-111.5
Current ELO Difference223.1
Expected score0.31
History Matches8
Residual Mean0.11
Overperformance8.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Toledo

W
San Clemente2–3Toledo31 Oct · away
Pick: Toledo 49% · hit
W
Toledo2–0Almansa25 Oct · home
Pick: Toledo 66% · hit
L
Manchego1–0Toledo17 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 37% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Marchamalo

D
Marchamalo3–3Quintanar del Rey31 Oct · home
Pick: Marchamalo 36% · missed
L
San Clemente3–1Marchamalo25 Oct · away
Pick: Marchamalo 42% · missed
W
Marchamalo1–0Socuéllamos17 Oct · home
Pick: Marchamalo 38% · hit
W
Marchamalo2–0Unión Adarve30 Aug · home
Pick: Marchamalo 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Toledo and Marchamalo meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Toledo win 54.7%, draw 26.2%, Marchamalo win 19.1%. The pick is Toledo win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.3%. Both teams to score: 46.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.