ScoreProb
1st League - FBiH Bosnia & Herzegovina FBiH - 13 2026

TOŠK Tešanj vs Tomislav

TOŠK Tešanj Home · Elo 1,492
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Tomislav Away · Elo 1,444
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: TOŠK Tešanj win
TOŠK Tešanj winPick
52.6%
Draw
21.8%
Tomislav win
25.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.5%
No42.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.7%
Under 2.546.3%

How much we know

TOŠK Tešanj history42 matches
Tomislav history43 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why TOŠK Tešanj are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • TOŠK Tešanj are rated 47 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,492 against 1,444. On rating alone TOŠK Tešanj would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • TOŠK Tešanj score more

    1.45 goals a game over 42 matches for TOŠK Tešanj, against 1.23 over 43 for Tomislav.

  • Defences are close

    TOŠK Tešanj concede 1.31 a game, Tomislav 1.44.

  • Tomislav games more often go over 2.5 goals

    52% of TOŠK Tešanj matches, against 60% for Tomislav. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
TOŠK Tešanj
Tomislav
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1491.6
ELO
1444.4
42
ELO · Matches
43
1491.6
Current Team ELO
1444.4
1444.4
Current Opponent ELO
1491.6
47.11
Current ELO Difference
-47.11
0.57
Expected score
0.43
42
History Matches
43
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.07
49.30
Overperformance
45.13
-0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.40
Goals against per game
2.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
0.90
0.90
Goals for per game
1.50
1.40
Goals against per game
2.10
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.36
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.22
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.37
Overall performance9 signals
90
42
Matches
43
1.40
PPG
1.14
38.1%
Win rate
27.9%
26.2%
Draw rate
30.2%
35.7%
Loss rate
41.9%
78.6%
Over 1.5 rate
79.1%
52.4%
Over 2.5 rate
60.5%
31.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.6%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
23
1.71
PPG
0.87
42.9%
Win rate
21.7%
42.9%
Draw rate
21.7%
14.3%
Loss rate
56.5%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
73.9%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
60.9%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
26.1%
1.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
21
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.45
Goals for per game
1.23
76.2%
Scoring rate
74.4%
50.0%
BTTS rate
58.1%
1.48
Goals for per game
0.96
85.7%
Scoring rate
69.6%
42.9%
BTTS rate
56.5%
0.50
Goals for per game
0.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
42
History Matches
43
1.45
Goals Mean
1.23
1.24
Goals Std
1.10
76.2%
Scored 1+ rate
74.4%
40.5%
Scored 2+ rate
32.6%
19.0%
Scored 3+ rate
9.3%
1.48
Venue Goals Mean
0.96
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.31
Goals against per game
1.44
69.0%
Conceding rate
74.4%
0.90
Goals against per game
1.74
47.6%
Conceding rate
78.3%
1.00
Goals against per game
3.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
42
History Matches
43
1.31
Conceded Mean
1.44
1.18
Conceded Std
1.19
47.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.2%
7.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.9%
0.90
Venue Conceded Mean
1.74
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
23.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.6%
52.4%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
23.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.6%
52.4%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
42
History Matches
43
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
1.82
Goal Difference Std
1.77
1.12
Stability score
1.48
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
41
Eligible Matches
42
13
Lead Matches
17
92.3%
Lead Win Rate
58.8%
0.95
Lead Points Retention
0.65
12
Trailing Matches
12
8.3%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
41
Halftime Coverage Matches
42
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.90
Rest days
76.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
22
Normal Rest History Matches
22
1.23
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.41
19
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.63
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.90
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
0.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-3.00
3
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.03
Portability PPG Std
0.15
0.07
Portability PPG Range
0.31
93.81
Portability Score
76.47
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
42
Clean History Matches
43
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO47.11
PPG0.27
GF0.22
GA-0.13
PPG1.50
PPG0.84
PPG0.80
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate5.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate30.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.22
Goals Std0.14
Scored 1+ rate1.8%
Scored 2+ rate7.9%
Scored 3+ rate9.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.52
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.42
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.13
Conceded Std0.00
Clean-sheet rate5.4%
Conceded 2+ rate3.4%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Conceded Mean-0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.20
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.05
Stability score-0.35
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.26
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate33.5%
Lead Points Retention0.30
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.17
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.50
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.12
Portability PPG Range-0.24
Portability Score17.34
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.18
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.73
Current Team ELO47.11
Current Opponent ELO-47.11
Current ELO Difference94.22
Expected score0.13
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

TOŠK Tešanj

L
Vitez2–1TOŠK Tešanj31 Oct · away
Pick: TOŠK Tešanj 39% · missed
W
TOŠK Tešanj5–2Rudar Prijedor28 Oct · home
Pick: TOŠK Tešanj 38% · hit
W
TOŠK Tešanj5–1Rudar Kakanj25 Oct · home
Pick: TOŠK Tešanj 79% · hit
D
Čapljina1–1TOŠK Tešanj17 Oct · away
Pick: TOŠK Tešanj 47% · missed
L
TOŠK Tešanj0–1GOŠK Gabela30 Aug · home
Pick: GOŠK Gabela 49% · hit

Tomislav

W
Tomislav2–0Budućnost Banovići31 Oct · home
Pick: Budućnost Banovići 43% · missed
L
Tomislav1–3Posušje24 Oct · home
Pick: Posušje 46% · hit
L
Vitez2–1Tomislav17 Oct · away
Pick: Vitez 48% · hit
L
Tomislav2–4Travnik29 Aug · home
Pick: Travnik 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

TOŠK Tešanj and Tomislav meet in 1st League - FBiH on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: TOŠK Tešanj win 52.6%, draw 21.8%, Tomislav win 25.6%. The pick is TOŠK Tešanj win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.7%. Both teams to score: 57.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.