ScoreProb
1st League - FBiH Bosnia & Herzegovina FBiH - 13 2026

Zvijezda Gradačac vs Vitez

Zvijezda Gradačac Home · Elo 1,475
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Vitez Away · Elo 1,448
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Zvijezda Gradačac win
Zvijezda Gradačac winPick
47.7%
Draw
28.0%
Vitez win
24.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.6%
No51.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.9%
Under 2.549.1%

How much we know

Zvijezda Gradačac history18 matches
Vitez history27 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Zvijezda Gradačac are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Zvijezda Gradačac are rated 27 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,475 against 1,448. On rating alone Zvijezda Gradačac would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Zvijezda Gradačac score far more

    1.89 goals a game over 18 matches for Zvijezda Gradačac, against 1.00 over 27 for Vitez.

  • Zvijezda Gradačac concede fewer

    Zvijezda Gradačac concede 1.28 a game, Vitez 1.44.

  • Zvijezda Gradačac games more often go over 2.5 goals

    61% of Zvijezda Gradačac matches, against 48% for Vitez. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Zvijezda Gradačac
Vitez
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1474.8
ELO
1448.2
18
ELO · Matches
27
1474.8
Current Team ELO
1448.2
1448.2
Current Opponent ELO
1474.8
26.66
Current ELO Difference
-26.66
0.54
Expected score
0.46
18
History Matches
27
-0.10
Residual Mean
-0.09
45.25
Overperformance
44.69
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.40
2.60
Goals for per game
0.60
1.20
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
0.80
2.30
Goals for per game
0.60
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.60
2.37
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.80
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.72
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.54
Overall performance9 signals
90
18
Matches
27
1.11
PPG
1.07
33.3%
Win rate
29.6%
11.1%
Draw rate
18.5%
55.6%
Loss rate
51.9%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
61.1%
Over 2.5 rate
48.1%
27.8%
Over 3.5 rate
18.5%
2.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
Venue performance10 signals
100
6
Matches
13
2.17
PPG
0.62
66.7%
Win rate
15.4%
16.7%
Draw rate
15.4%
16.7%
Loss rate
69.2%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
84.6%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
53.8%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
38.5%
2.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
6
History Matches
13
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.89
Goals for per game
1.00
72.2%
Scoring rate
63.0%
55.6%
BTTS rate
44.4%
3.00
Goals for per game
1.00
83.3%
Scoring rate
61.5%
50.0%
BTTS rate
53.8%
0.00
Goals for per game
0.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
18
History Matches
27
1.89
Goals Mean
1.00
2.02
Goals Std
1.02
72.2%
Scored 1+ rate
63.0%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
25.9%
33.3%
Scored 3+ rate
7.4%
3.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.28
Goals against per game
1.44
83.3%
Conceding rate
74.1%
0.83
Goals against per game
1.92
66.7%
Conceding rate
92.3%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
18
History Matches
27
1.28
Conceded Mean
1.44
0.73
Conceded Std
1.07
44.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
51.9%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.5%
0.83
Venue Conceded Mean
1.92
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
37.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
7.7%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
37.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
7.7%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
18
History Matches
27
0.85
Result entropy
0.92
2.36
Goal Difference Std
1.62
14.72
Stability score
7.77
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
18
Eligible Matches
27
6
Lead Matches
9
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
55.6%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.63
4
Trailing Matches
12
0.0%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
18
Halftime Coverage Matches
27
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
1.22
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.44
0.78
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.85
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.85
Rest days
76.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
9
Normal Rest History Matches
14
1.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.36
8
Long Rest History Matches
12
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.75
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Portability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
2
Matches
2
0.00
PPG
0.50
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.50
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
4
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
18
Clean History Matches
27
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO26.66
PPG0.04
GF0.89
GA-0.17
PPG-0.50
PPG1.55
PPG0.80
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate25.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches-9
Goals Mean0.89
Goals Std1.01
Scored 1+ rate9.3%
Scored 2+ rate7.4%
Scored 3+ rate25.9%
Venue Goals Mean2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.70
Recent 10 Goals Std1.57
History Matches-9
Conceded Mean-0.17
Conceded Std-0.34
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Conceded Mean-1.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.34
History Matches-9
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std0.74
Stability score6.95
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.19
Eligible Matches-9
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate11.1%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate-0.17
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches-9
First Half Goals For Mean0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.78
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days0.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.02
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.25
Current Team ELO26.66
Current Opponent ELO-26.66
Current ELO Difference53.32
Expected score0.08
History Matches-9
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance0.56
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Zvijezda Gradačac

W
Rudar Kakanj0–6Zvijezda Gradačac31 Oct · away
Pick: Zvijezda Gradačac 58% · hit
W
Zvijezda Gradačac4–1Čapljina24 Oct · home
Pick: Zvijezda Gradačac 75% · hit
L
Igman Konjic1–0Zvijezda Gradačac17 Oct · away
Pick: Igman Konjic 53% · hit
W
Zvijezda Gradačac2–0Radnik Hadžići29 Aug · home
Pick: Radnik Hadžići 48% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Vitez

W
Vitez2–1TOŠK Tešanj31 Oct · home
Pick: TOŠK Tešanj 39% · missed
L
Posušje3–1Vitez28 Oct · away
Pick: Posušje 57% · hit
W
Budućnost Banovići1–2Vitez24 Oct · away
Pick: Budućnost Banovići 46% · missed
W
Vitez2–1Tomislav17 Oct · home
Pick: Vitez 48% · hit
D
Vitez1–1Jedinstvo Bihać29 Aug · home
Pick: Jedinstvo Bihać 51% · missed

About this match

Zvijezda Gradačac and Vitez meet in 1st League - FBiH on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Zvijezda Gradačac win 47.7%, draw 28.0%, Vitez win 24.3%. The pick is Zvijezda Gradačac win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.9%. Both teams to score: 48.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.