ScoreProb
UEFA Europa Conference League World Round 3 2026

Trabzonspor vs SC Freiburg

Trabzonspor Home · Elo 1,616
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
SC Freiburg Away · Elo 1,615
Papara Park, Trabzon Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Trabzonspor win
Trabzonspor winPick
39.4%
Draw
25.7%
SC Freiburg win
34.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.7%
No44.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.5%
Under 2.542.5%

How much we know

Trabzonspor history73 matches
SC Freiburg history77 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 17:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.4%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Trabzonspor are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,616 against 1,615. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.68 goals a game over 73 matches for Trabzonspor, against 1.68 over 77 for SC Freiburg.

  • Defences are close

    Trabzonspor concede 1.23 a game, SC Freiburg 1.26.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    55% of Trabzonspor matches, against 61% for SC Freiburg. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Trabzonspor
SC Freiburg
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1616.0
ELO
1614.9
73
ELO · Matches
77
1616.0
Current Team ELO
1614.9
1614.9
Current Opponent ELO
1616.0
1.07
Current ELO Difference
-1.07
0.50
Expected score
0.50
73
History Matches
77
0.08
Residual Mean
0.08
56.59
Overperformance
56.06
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.40
1.00
Goals for per game
2.60
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.90
1.10
Goals for per game
2.40
1.40
Goals against per game
1.30
50.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.40
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.43
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.12
Overall performance9 signals
90
73
Matches
77
1.78
PPG
1.74
50.7%
Win rate
50.6%
26.0%
Draw rate
22.1%
23.3%
Loss rate
27.3%
78.1%
Over 1.5 rate
76.6%
54.8%
Over 2.5 rate
61.0%
27.4%
Over 3.5 rate
35.1%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
Venue performance10 signals
100
39
Matches
37
1.79
PPG
1.46
51.3%
Win rate
40.5%
25.6%
Draw rate
24.3%
23.1%
Loss rate
35.1%
79.5%
Over 1.5 rate
67.6%
51.3%
Over 2.5 rate
51.4%
28.2%
Over 3.5 rate
29.7%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
39
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.68
Goals for per game
1.68
83.6%
Scoring rate
79.2%
60.3%
BTTS rate
55.8%
1.64
Goals for per game
1.32
82.1%
Scoring rate
64.9%
53.8%
BTTS rate
45.9%
73
History Matches
77
1.68
Goals Mean
1.68
1.28
Goals Std
1.29
83.6%
Scored 1+ rate
79.2%
49.3%
Scored 2+ rate
51.9%
21.9%
Scored 3+ rate
24.7%
1.64
Venue Goals Mean
1.32
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.23
Goals against per game
1.26
71.2%
Conceding rate
68.8%
1.21
Goals against per game
1.32
69.2%
Conceding rate
67.6%
73
History Matches
77
1.23
Conceded Mean
1.26
1.12
Conceded Std
1.24
31.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.5%
16.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.9%
1.21
Venue Conceded Mean
1.32
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
31.2%
16.4%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
35.1%
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
31.2%
16.4%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
35.1%
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
31.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
73
History Matches
77
0.94
Result entropy
0.94
1.57
Goal Difference Std
1.85
5.87
Stability score
6.03
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
73
Eligible Matches
75
23
Lead Matches
28
78.3%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.88
19
Trailing Matches
13
47.4%
Non-loss rate
46.2%
5.3%
Trailing Win Rate
15.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
73
Halftime Coverage Matches
75
0.70
First Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
0.99
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.07
Rest days
74.07
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
15
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.40
53
Normal Rest History Matches
43
1.74
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.86
17
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.82
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.67
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
8
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.55
Portability PPG Std
0.50
1.63
Portability PPG Range
1.62
47.75
Portability Score
49.97
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
73
Clean History Matches
77
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO1.07
PPG0.04
GF0.01
GA-0.03
PPG0.34
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches-4
Goals Mean0.01
Goals Std-0.01
Scored 1+ rate4.3%
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.32
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.60
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean-0.03
Conceded Std-0.13
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate0.00
Venue Conceded Mean-0.12
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.09
History Matches-4
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.28
Stability score-0.16
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.57
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate1.2%
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.05
Portability PPG Range0.01
Portability Score-2.22
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-13
Short Rest Points Per Match1.60
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.12
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.16
Current Team ELO1.07
Current Opponent ELO-1.07
Current ELO Difference2.13
Expected score0.00
History Matches-4
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.54
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Trabzonspor

W
Trabzonspor2–0Gaziantep FK1 Nov · home
Pick: Trabzonspor 50% · hit
W
Rizespor3–4Trabzonspor26 Oct · away
Pick: Trabzonspor 46% · hit
W
Trabzonspor2–0Heart Of Midlothian22 Oct · home
Pick: Trabzonspor 37% · hit
W
Trabzonspor2–0Beşiktaş19 Oct · home
Pick: Trabzonspor 39% · hit
W
KuPS2–4Trabzonspor15 Oct · away
Pick: KuPS 49% · missed

SC Freiburg

W
FC Augsburg1–2SC Freiburg31 Oct · away
Pick: SC Freiburg 46% · hit
W
SC Freiburg3–2VfL Wolfsburg28 Oct · home
Pick: SC Freiburg 58% · hit
L
SC Freiburg1–3Bayern München25 Oct · home
Pick: Bayern München 53% · hit
L
Monaco3–0SC Freiburg22 Oct · away
Pick: SC Freiburg 43% · missed
L
Bayer Leverkusen2–1SC Freiburg18 Oct · away
Pick: Bayer Leverkusen 53% · hit

About this match

Trabzonspor and SC Freiburg meet in UEFA Europa Conference League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 17:45 UTC. The match is played at Papara Park, Trabzon. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Trabzonspor win 39.4%, draw 25.7%, SC Freiburg win 34.9%. The pick is Trabzonspor win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.5%. Both teams to score: 55.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.