ScoreProb
Persian Gulf Pro League Iran Round 12 2026

Tractor Sazi vs Kheybar Khorramabad

Tractor Sazi Home · Elo 1,632
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kheybar Khorramabad Away · Elo 1,502
Yadegar-e-Emam Stadium, Tabriz Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tractor Sazi win
Tractor Sazi winPick
66.6%
Draw
22.8%
Kheybar Khorramabad win
10.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes40.0%
No60.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.6%
Under 2.553.4%

How much we know

Tractor Sazi history54 matches
Kheybar Khorramabad history42 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (66.6%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Tractor Sazi are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Tractor Sazi are rated 129 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,632 against 1,502. On rating alone Tractor Sazi would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Tractor Sazi score more

    1.50 goals a game over 54 matches for Tractor Sazi, against 0.98 over 42 for Kheybar Khorramabad.

  • Tractor Sazi concede fewer

    Tractor Sazi concede 0.67 a game, Kheybar Khorramabad 1.05.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    41% of Tractor Sazi matches, against 36% for Kheybar Khorramabad. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Tractor Sazi
Kheybar Khorramabad
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1631.8
ELO
1502.4
54
ELO · Matches
42
1631.8
Current Team ELO
1502.4
1502.4
Current Opponent ELO
1631.8
129.3
Current ELO Difference
-129.3
0.68
Expected score
0.32
54
History Matches
42
0.13
Residual Mean
-0.01
59.17
Overperformance
49.65
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
0.60
Goals against per game
1.60
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.00
1.10
Goals for per game
1.20
0.80
Goals against per game
1.50
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.81
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.68
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.90
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
42
1.96
PPG
1.29
53.7%
Win rate
31.0%
35.2%
Draw rate
35.7%
11.1%
Loss rate
33.3%
61.1%
Over 1.5 rate
61.9%
40.7%
Over 2.5 rate
35.7%
20.4%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.12
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
23
1.90
PPG
1.00
51.7%
Win rate
21.7%
34.5%
Draw rate
34.8%
13.8%
Loss rate
43.5%
58.6%
Over 1.5 rate
56.5%
44.8%
Over 2.5 rate
34.8%
20.7%
Over 3.5 rate
8.7%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.13
29
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.50
Goals for per game
0.98
72.2%
Scoring rate
64.3%
38.9%
BTTS rate
47.6%
1.45
Goals for per game
0.74
69.0%
Scoring rate
52.2%
41.4%
BTTS rate
43.5%
1.67
Goals for per game
1.33
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
54
History Matches
42
1.50
Goals Mean
0.98
1.37
Goals Std
0.89
72.2%
Scored 1+ rate
64.3%
42.6%
Scored 2+ rate
28.6%
20.4%
Scored 3+ rate
4.8%
1.45
Venue Goals Mean
0.74
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.67
Goals against per game
1.05
46.3%
Conceding rate
69.0%
0.79
Goals against per game
1.09
51.7%
Conceding rate
73.9%
0.00
Goals against per game
1.67
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
54
History Matches
42
0.67
Conceded Mean
1.05
0.86
Conceded Std
0.87
14.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.0%
5.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.8%
0.79
Venue Conceded Mean
1.09
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
53.7%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
48.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
31.0%
Failed-to-score rate
47.8%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
53.7%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
48.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
31.0%
Failed-to-score rate
47.8%
53.7%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
42
0.86
Result entropy
1.00
1.56
Goal Difference Std
1.12
13.93
Stability score
0.15
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
42
17
Lead Matches
11
88.2%
Lead Win Rate
72.7%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.79
4
Trailing Matches
9
75.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
50.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
42
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
0.87
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.43
0.48
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
74.88
Rest days
74.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
39
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.95
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.19
14
Long Rest History Matches
15
2.14
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.53
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
3.00
PPG
0.67
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
66.7%
0.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
3
Current Competition Matches
3
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.67
1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.33
8
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.53
Portability PPG Std
0.27
1.50
Portability PPG Range
0.59
48.32
Portability Score
64.66
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
42
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO129.3
PPG0.68
GF0.52
GA-0.38
PPG2.33
PPG0.90
PPG1.40
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate22.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate22.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches12
Goals Mean0.52
Goals Std0.48
Scored 1+ rate7.9%
Scored 2+ rate14.0%
Scored 3+ rate15.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.71
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.05
History Matches12
Conceded Mean-0.38
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate22.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.16
Conceded 3+ rate0.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.27
History Matches12
Result entropy-0.14
Goal Difference Std0.44
Stability score13.78
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.78
Eligible Matches12
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate15.5%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate41.7%
Trailing Win Rate50.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches12
First Half Goals For Mean0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.27
Second Half Goals For Mean0.44
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.26
Portability PPG Range0.91
Portability Score-16.34
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches13
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.76
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.61
Current Team ELO129.3
Current Opponent ELO-129.3
Current ELO Difference258.7
Expected score0.36
History Matches12
Residual Mean0.13
Overperformance9.52
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Tractor Sazi

D
Tractor Sazi2–2Neftchi2 Nov · home
Pick: Tractor Sazi 35% · missed
L
Al Ain2–1Tractor Sazi26 Oct · away
Pick: Al Ain 55% · hit
W
Tractor Sazi3–0Sanat Naft22 Oct · home
Pick: Tractor Sazi 58% · hit
D
Tractor Sazi0–0Al Shamal12 Oct · home
Pick: Tractor Sazi 59% · missed
D
Tractor Sazi1–1Esteghlal FC8 Oct · home
Pick: Tractor Sazi 38% · missed

Kheybar Khorramabad

L
Kheybar Khorramabad1–2Sepahan FC30 Oct · home
Pick: Kheybar Khorramabad 36% · missed
W
Gol Gohar0–1Kheybar Khorramabad23 Oct · away
Pick: Gol Gohar 53% · missed
W
Kheybar Khorramabad2–1Esteghlal Khuzestan18 Oct · home
Pick: Kheybar Khorramabad 55% · hit
D
Kheybar Khorramabad0–0Persepolis FC14 Oct · home
Pick: Persepolis FC 45% · missed
L
Kheybar Khorramabad2–3Paykan24 Aug · home
Pick: Kheybar Khorramabad 45% · missed

About this match

Tractor Sazi and Kheybar Khorramabad meet in Persian Gulf Pro League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Yadegar-e-Emam Stadium, Tabriz. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Tractor Sazi win 66.6%, draw 22.8%, Kheybar Khorramabad win 10.6%. The pick is Tractor Sazi win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.6%. Both teams to score: 40.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.