ScoreProb
3. liga - West Slovakia West - 14 2026

Trenčín II vs Baník Prievidza

Trenčín II Home · Elo 1,508
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Baník Prievidza Away · Elo 1,526
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Trenčín II win
Trenčín II winPick
52.1%
Draw
19.2%
Baník Prievidza win
28.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes67.6%
No32.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.577.9%
Under 2.522.1%

How much we know

Trenčín II history28 matches
Baník Prievidza history40 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 0 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 09:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Trenčín II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,508 against 1,526. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    2.21 goals a game over 28 matches for Trenčín II, against 2.05 over 40 for Baník Prievidza.

  • Baník Prievidza concede fewer

    Trenčín II concede 2.14 a game, Baník Prievidza 1.78.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    79% of Trenčín II matches, against 73% for Baník Prievidza. The model puts this match at 78% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Trenčín II
Baník Prievidza
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1507.7
ELO
1525.5
28
ELO · Matches
40
1507.7
Current Team ELO
1525.5
1525.5
Current Opponent ELO
1507.7
-17.78
Current ELO Difference
17.78
0.47
Expected score
0.53
28
History Matches
40
0.01
Residual Mean
0.02
50.79
Overperformance
51.46
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
1.60
Goals for per game
1.80
1.80
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.40
2.50
Goals for per game
1.80
2.20
Goals against per game
2.10
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
2.38
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.25
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.37
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.45
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.85
Overall performance9 signals
90
28
Matches
40
1.50
PPG
1.50
46.4%
Win rate
40.0%
10.7%
Draw rate
30.0%
42.9%
Loss rate
30.0%
89.3%
Over 1.5 rate
92.5%
78.6%
Over 2.5 rate
72.5%
57.1%
Over 3.5 rate
55.0%
2.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.10
Venue performance10 signals
100
14
Matches
22
2.07
PPG
1.05
64.3%
Win rate
22.7%
14.3%
Draw rate
36.4%
21.4%
Loss rate
40.9%
92.9%
Over 1.5 rate
90.9%
78.6%
Over 2.5 rate
72.7%
64.3%
Over 3.5 rate
59.1%
2.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.95
14
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.21
Goals for per game
2.05
82.1%
Scoring rate
85.0%
60.7%
BTTS rate
75.0%
2.93
Goals for per game
1.64
100.0%
Scoring rate
72.7%
71.4%
BTTS rate
68.2%
2.67
Goals for per game
1.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
100.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
28
History Matches
40
2.21
Goals Mean
2.05
1.80
Goals Std
1.56
82.1%
Scored 1+ rate
85.0%
57.1%
Scored 2+ rate
60.0%
46.4%
Scored 3+ rate
30.0%
2.93
Venue Goals Mean
1.64
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.14
Goals against per game
1.78
78.6%
Conceding rate
90.0%
1.57
Goals against per game
2.14
71.4%
Conceding rate
95.5%
1.67
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
28
History Matches
40
2.14
Conceded Mean
1.78
1.83
Conceded Std
1.17
57.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
55.0%
35.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
1.57
Venue Conceded Mean
2.14
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
15.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
4.5%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
15.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
4.5%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
28
History Matches
40
0.87
Result entropy
0.99
2.88
Goal Difference Std
2.10
12.74
Stability score
0.88
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
28
Eligible Matches
39
12
Lead Matches
16
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
68.8%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.75
11
Trailing Matches
9
9.1%
Non-loss rate
55.6%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
28
Halftime Coverage Matches
39
0.96
First Half Goals For Mean
0.90
1.04
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
1.25
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.18
1.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.15
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.04
Rest days
77.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
9
Normal Rest History Matches
19
2.11
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.89
18
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.28
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.11
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.33
PPG
1.00
66.7%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.33
Current Competition PPG
1.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.33
3
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.97
Portability PPG Std
0.47
2.33
Portability PPG Range
1.12
33.94
Portability Score
51.59
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
28
Clean History Matches
40
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-17.78
PPG0.00
GF0.16
GA0.37
PPG1.33
PPG1.03
PPG0.00
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-12
Clean-sheet rate11.4%
Failed-to-score rate2.9%
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate24.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.27
History Matches-12
Goals Mean0.16
Goals Std0.24
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate16.4%
Venue Goals Mean1.29
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std1.13
History Matches-12
Conceded Mean0.37
Conceded Std0.65
Clean-sheet rate11.4%
Conceded 2+ rate2.1%
Conceded 3+ rate15.7%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.56
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.21
History Matches-12
Result entropy-0.12
Goal Difference Std0.78
Stability score11.85
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.60
Eligible Matches-11
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate14.6%
Lead Points Retention0.14
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.46
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-11
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.45
Second Half Goals For Mean0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.33
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.50
Portability PPG Range1.21
Portability Score-17.66
Rest days0.25
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-10
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.22
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.17
Current Team ELO-17.78
Current Opponent ELO17.78
Current ELO Difference-35.57
Expected score-0.05
History Matches-12
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.67
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Trenčín II

L
Častkovce1–0Trenčín II31 Oct · away
Pick: Častkovce 41% · hit
L
Trenčín II0–1MŠK Senec25 Oct · home
Pick: Trenčín II 48% · missed
L
Gabčíkovo3–2Trenčín II17 Oct · away
Pick: Gabčíkovo 44% · hit
L
Trenčín II2–4Nitra4 Oct · home
Pick: Nitra 42% · hit
L
Dunajská Lužná1–0Trenčín II29 Aug · away
Pick: Dunajská Lužná 38% · hit

Baník Prievidza

L
Veľké Ludince3–0Baník Prievidza25 Oct · away
Pick: Baník Prievidza 46% · missed
W
Baník Prievidza3–2Spartak Myjava17 Oct · home
Pick: Baník Prievidza 41% · hit
L
Nitra2–0Baník Prievidza29 Aug · away
Pick: Nitra 51% · hit
W
Priehrada1–3Baník Prievidza26 Aug · away
Pick: Baník Prievidza 40% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Trenčín II and Baník Prievidza meet in 3. liga - West on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 09:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Trenčín II win 52.1%, draw 19.2%, Baník Prievidza win 28.7%. The pick is Trenčín II win. Over 2.5 goals: 77.9%. Both teams to score: 67.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.