ScoreProb
Oberliga - Westfalen Germany Westfalen - 13 2026

TuS Hordel vs Schermbeck

TuS Hordel Home · Elo 1,491
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Schermbeck Away · Elo 1,460
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: TuS Hordel win
TuS Hordel winPick
46.8%
Draw
23.5%
Schermbeck win
29.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.6%
No38.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.567.9%
Under 2.532.1%

How much we know

TuS Hordel history4 matches
Schermbeck history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why TuS Hordel are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • TuS Hordel are rated 31 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,491 against 1,460. On rating alone TuS Hordel would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Schermbeck score more

    1.25 goals a game over 4 matches for TuS Hordel, against 1.58 over 59 for Schermbeck.

  • Schermbeck concede fewer

    TuS Hordel concede 2.00 a game, Schermbeck 1.76.

  • Schermbeck games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of TuS Hordel matches, against 66% for Schermbeck. The model puts this match at 68% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
TuS Hordel
Schermbeck
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1490.8
ELO
1459.6
4
ELO · Matches
59
1490.8
Current Team ELO
1459.6
1459.6
Current Opponent ELO
1490.8
31.21
Current ELO Difference
-31.21
0.54
Expected score
0.46
4
History Matches
59
-0.12
Residual Mean
-0.03
48.05
Overperformance
48.09
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
4
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.40
1.25
Goals for per game
1.00
2.00
Goals against per game
2.60
25.0%
Win rate
0.0%
4
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.40
1.25
Goals for per game
1.70
2.00
Goals against per game
1.80
25.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.64
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.35
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.22
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.95
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.02
Overall performance9 signals
90
4
Matches
59
1.00
PPG
1.22
25.0%
Win rate
32.2%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.4%
50.0%
Loss rate
42.4%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
88.1%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.1%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
44.1%
2.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
Venue performance10 signals
100
2
Matches
27
2.00
PPG
1.37
50.0%
Win rate
40.7%
50.0%
Draw rate
14.8%
0.0%
Loss rate
44.4%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
85.2%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
63.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
44.4%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
2
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.25
Goals for per game
1.58
50.0%
Scoring rate
76.3%
50.0%
BTTS rate
66.1%
2.50
Goals for per game
1.63
100.0%
Scoring rate
81.5%
100.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.67
Goals for per game
0.67
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
4
History Matches
59
1.25
Goals Mean
1.58
1.64
Goals Std
1.26
50.0%
Scored 1+ rate
76.3%
25.0%
Scored 2+ rate
50.8%
25.0%
Scored 3+ rate
20.3%
2.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.63
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.00
Goals against per game
1.76
100.0%
Conceding rate
84.7%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.63
100.0%
Conceding rate
77.8%
1.33
Goals against per game
3.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
4
History Matches
59
2.00
Conceded Mean
1.76
1.22
Conceded Std
1.28
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
54.2%
25.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.7%
1.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.63
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.3%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.3%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
4
History Matches
59
0.95
Result entropy
0.98
2.17
Goal Difference Std
1.86
5.36
Stability score
1.98
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
4
Eligible Matches
59
0
Lead Matches
18
—
Lead Win Rate
61.1%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.70
3
Trailing Matches
27
33.3%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
14.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
4
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
1.75
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.98
0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
78.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
1
Normal Rest History Matches
29
0.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.34
2
Long Rest History Matches
28
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.14
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
0.00
33.3%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.67
2
Competition Season Count
5
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
—
Portability PPG Std
0.64
—
Portability PPG Range
1.67
—
Portability Score
43.75
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
4
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO31.21
PPG-0.22
GF-0.33
GA0.24
PPG1.33
PPG0.63
PPG0.60
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-55
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate26.3%
History Matches-25
Clean-sheet rate-0.22
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches-55
Goals Mean-0.33
Goals Std0.37
Scored 1+ rate-0.26
Scored 2+ rate-0.26
Scored 3+ rate4.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.87
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.45
Recent 10 Goals Std0.29
History Matches-55
Conceded Mean0.24
Conceded Std-0.06
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate1.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.13
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.06
History Matches-55
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.30
Stability score3.39
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.14
Eligible Matches-55
Lead Matches-18
Trailing Matches-24
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.15
Halftime Coverage Matches-55
First Half Goals For Mean-0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean0.92
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.68
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.00
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Rest days-1.83
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-28
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.34
Long Rest History Matches-26
Long Rest Points Per Match0.86
Current Team ELO31.21
Current Opponent ELO-31.21
Current ELO Difference62.41
Expected score0.09
History Matches-55
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

TuS Hordel

D
Eintracht Rheine3–3TuS Hordel25 Oct · away
Pick: Eintracht Rheine 63% · missed
D
TuS Hordel1–1Sprockhovel18 Oct · home
Pick: Sprockhovel 56% · missed
L
TuS Hordel1–4Vreden4 Oct · home
Pick: Vreden 36% · hit
D
Victoria Clarholz1–1TuS Hordel30 Aug · away
Pick: Victoria Clarholz 53% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Schermbeck

L
Schermbeck1–2Lippstadt 0823 Oct · home
Pick: Lippstadt 08 51% · hit
L
Maaslingen3–1Schermbeck18 Oct · away
Pick: Maaslingen 52% · hit
L
ASC Dortmund1–0Schermbeck14 Oct · away
Pick: ASC Dortmund 63% · hit
L
Schermbeck1–3Sprockhovel4 Oct · home
Pick: Schermbeck 42% · missed
L
Verl II1–0Schermbeck30 Aug · away
Pick: Verl II 52% · hit

About this match

TuS Hordel and Schermbeck meet in Oberliga - Westfalen on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: TuS Hordel win 46.8%, draw 23.5%, Schermbeck win 29.7%. The pick is TuS Hordel win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.9%. Both teams to score: 61.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.