ScoreProb
Eredivisie Netherlands Round 12 2026

Twente vs Ajax

Twente Home · Elo 1,622
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ajax Away · Elo 1,633
De Grolsch Veste, Enschede Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ajax win
Twente win
25.3%
Draw
26.6%
Ajax winPick
48.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.8%
No40.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.1%
Under 2.537.9%

How much we know

Twente history74 matches
Ajax history83 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Ajax are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,622 against 1,633. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.85 goals a game over 74 matches for Twente, against 1.84 over 83 for Ajax.

  • Defences are close

    Twente concede 1.31 a game, Ajax 1.36.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    57% of Twente matches, against 63% for Ajax. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 17 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Twente
Ajax
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1622.1
ELO
1633.1
74
ELO · Matches
83
1622.1
Current Team ELO
1633.1
1633.1
Current Opponent ELO
1622.1
-11.00
Current ELO Difference
11.00
0.48
Expected score
0.52
74
History Matches
83
0.08
Residual Mean
0.09
56.40
Overperformance
57.30
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.27
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.20
2.60
Goals for per game
2.40
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
2.40
2.40
Goals for per game
2.40
1.50
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
70.0%
2.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.40
1.56
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.63
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
2.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.11
Overall performance9 signals
90
74
Matches
83
1.66
PPG
1.78
44.6%
Win rate
50.6%
32.4%
Draw rate
26.5%
23.0%
Loss rate
22.9%
85.1%
Over 1.5 rate
91.6%
56.8%
Over 2.5 rate
62.7%
37.8%
Over 3.5 rate
43.4%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
36
1.92
PPG
1.75
56.8%
Win rate
47.2%
21.6%
Draw rate
33.3%
21.6%
Loss rate
19.4%
81.1%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
54.1%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
35.1%
Over 3.5 rate
55.6%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.22
37
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.85
Goals for per game
1.84
86.5%
Scoring rate
85.5%
64.9%
BTTS rate
60.2%
1.84
Goals for per game
1.89
86.5%
Scoring rate
86.1%
51.4%
BTTS rate
63.9%
1.50
Goals for per game
2.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
74
History Matches
83
1.85
Goals Mean
1.84
1.32
Goals Std
1.29
86.5%
Scored 1+ rate
85.5%
59.5%
Scored 2+ rate
60.2%
21.6%
Scored 3+ rate
22.9%
1.84
Venue Goals Mean
1.89
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.31
Goals against per game
1.36
74.3%
Conceding rate
71.1%
1.08
Goals against per game
1.64
59.5%
Conceding rate
72.2%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
74
History Matches
83
1.31
Conceded Mean
1.36
1.18
Conceded Std
1.24
35.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.4%
14.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.0%
1.08
Venue Conceded Mean
1.64
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
28.9%
13.5%
Failed-to-score rate
14.5%
40.5%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
13.5%
Failed-to-score rate
13.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
28.9%
13.5%
Failed-to-score rate
14.5%
40.5%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
13.5%
Failed-to-score rate
13.9%
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
28.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
74
History Matches
83
0.97
Result entropy
0.94
1.75
Goal Difference Std
2.01
3.22
Stability score
5.87
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
74
Eligible Matches
83
30
Lead Matches
35
70.0%
Lead Win Rate
74.3%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.83
16
Trailing Matches
15
50.0%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
18.8%
Trailing Win Rate
13.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
74
Halftime Coverage Matches
83
0.77
First Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
1.08
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.95
0.81
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
83.95
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
12
Short Rest History Matches
13
1.58
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.15
36
Normal Rest History Matches
48
1.72
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.75
25
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.56
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.57
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
2.00
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
9
Competition Season Count
9
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.40
Portability PPG Std
0.63
1.26
Portability PPG Range
1.75
55.78
Portability Score
44.06
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
74
Clean History Matches
83
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-11.00
PPG-0.12
GF0.01
GA-0.05
PPG-0.50
PPG0.17
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate12.8%
Failed-to-score rate0.00
History Matches-9
Goals Mean0.01
Goals Std0.03
Scored 1+ rate0.9%
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean-0.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.54
History Matches-9
Conceded Mean-0.05
Conceded Std-0.05
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate2.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.56
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.29
History Matches-9
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.27
Stability score-2.65
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.44
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.01
Eligible Matches-9
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate30.0%
Trailing Win Rate5.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches-9
First Half Goals For Mean-0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.24
Portability PPG Range-0.49
Portability Score11.71
Rest days0.09
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.57
Normal Rest History Matches-12
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.03
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.01
Current Team ELO-11.00
Current Opponent ELO11.00
Current ELO Difference-21.99
Expected score-0.03
History Matches-9
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.91
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.27

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Twente

W
Excelsior0–9Twente1 Nov · away
Pick: Excelsior 47% · missed
W
AZ Alkmaar0–2Twente25 Oct · away
Pick: AZ Alkmaar 63% · missed
W
Lincoln Red Imps FC1–4Twente22 Oct · away
Pick: Lincoln Red Imps FC 46% · missed
L
Twente1–2Utrecht18 Oct · home
Pick: Twente 57% · missed
W
Twente1–0FC Thun15 Oct · home
Pick: Twente 53% · hit

Ajax

W
Ajax1–0AZ Alkmaar31 Oct · home
Pick: AZ Alkmaar 47% · missed
W
Sparta Rotterdam1–2Ajax25 Oct · away
Pick: Ajax 49% · hit
W
Ajax2–0Atalanta22 Oct · home
Pick: Ajax 44% · hit
W
Groningen2–5Ajax18 Oct · away
Pick: Ajax 54% · hit
L
HNK Hajduk Split2–1Ajax15 Oct · away
Pick: HNK Hajduk Split 48% · hit

About this match

Twente and Ajax meet in Eredivisie on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. The match is played at De Grolsch Veste, Enschede. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Twente win 25.3%, draw 26.6%, Ajax win 48.1%. The pick is Ajax win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.1%. Both teams to score: 59.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.