ScoreProb
Eredivisie Netherlands Round 12 2026

Heerenveen vs Feyenoord

Heerenveen Home · Elo 1,566
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Feyenoord Away · Elo 1,632
Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Feyenoord win
Heerenveen win
31.5%
Draw
22.8%
Feyenoord winPick
45.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.0%
No38.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.6%
Under 2.535.4%

How much we know

Heerenveen history64 matches
Feyenoord history79 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Feyenoord are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Feyenoord are rated 66 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,632 against 1,566. On rating alone Feyenoord would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.81 goals a game over 64 matches for Heerenveen, against 1.97 over 79 for Feyenoord.

  • Feyenoord concede fewer

    Heerenveen concede 1.72 a game, Feyenoord 1.39.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    69% of Heerenveen matches, against 61% for Feyenoord. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Heerenveen
Feyenoord
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1566.4
ELO
1632.3
64
ELO · Matches
79
1566.4
Current Team ELO
1632.3
1632.3
Current Opponent ELO
1566.4
-65.91
Current ELO Difference
65.91
0.41
Expected score
0.59
64
History Matches
79
0.06
Residual Mean
0.09
54.21
Overperformance
56.92
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.33
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.60
2.00
Goals for per game
2.40
2.00
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
2.60
2.20
Goals for per game
2.70
1.90
Goals against per game
0.90
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.70
2.09
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.55
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.70
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
1.90
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.66
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
79
1.45
PPG
1.73
39.1%
Win rate
51.9%
28.1%
Draw rate
17.7%
32.8%
Loss rate
30.4%
92.2%
Over 1.5 rate
86.1%
68.8%
Over 2.5 rate
60.8%
46.9%
Over 3.5 rate
39.2%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.08
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
38
1.82
PPG
1.45
48.5%
Win rate
42.1%
36.4%
Draw rate
18.4%
15.2%
Loss rate
39.5%
90.9%
Over 1.5 rate
81.6%
63.6%
Over 2.5 rate
55.3%
45.5%
Over 3.5 rate
34.2%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.45
33
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.81
Goals for per game
1.97
82.8%
Scoring rate
83.5%
70.3%
BTTS rate
60.8%
2.15
Goals for per game
1.84
87.9%
Scoring rate
73.7%
75.8%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.67
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
66.7%
64
History Matches
79
1.81
Goals Mean
1.97
1.34
Goals Std
1.56
82.8%
Scored 1+ rate
83.5%
54.7%
Scored 2+ rate
57.0%
31.3%
Scored 3+ rate
30.4%
2.15
Venue Goals Mean
1.84
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.72
Goals against per game
1.39
85.9%
Conceding rate
73.4%
1.52
Goals against per game
1.53
84.8%
Conceding rate
71.1%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
64
History Matches
79
1.72
Conceded Mean
1.39
1.17
Conceded Std
1.26
56.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.5%
18.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.2%
1.52
Venue Conceded Mean
1.53
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
14.1%
Clean-sheet rate
26.6%
17.2%
Failed-to-score rate
16.5%
15.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.9%
12.1%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
14.1%
Clean-sheet rate
26.6%
17.2%
Failed-to-score rate
16.5%
15.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.9%
12.1%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
14.1%
Clean-sheet rate
26.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
79
0.99
Result entropy
0.92
1.79
Goal Difference Std
2.08
0.82
Stability score
8.16
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
62
Eligible Matches
78
22
Lead Matches
33
77.3%
Lead Win Rate
84.8%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.88
20
Trailing Matches
22
40.0%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
4.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
78
0.74
First Half Goals For Mean
0.99
0.76
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
0.95
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.99
0.90
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.68
Rest days
76.85
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
12
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.42
25
Normal Rest History Matches
42
1.40
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.64
35
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.54
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.13
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
2.33
33.3%
Win rate
66.7%
33.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
2.33
-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.33
6
Competition Season Count
10
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.61
Portability PPG Std
0.80
1.75
Portability PPG Range
2.25
44.94
Portability Score
38.34
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
79
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-65.91
PPG-0.28
GF-0.16
GA0.33
PPG-1.00
PPG0.37
PPG-1.00
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-15
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate0.7%
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-15
Goals Mean-0.16
Goals Std-0.21
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate0.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.31
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.54
History Matches-15
Conceded Mean0.33
Conceded Std-0.09
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Conceded 2+ rate15.7%
Conceded 3+ rate3.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.01
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.44
History Matches-15
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.29
Stability score-7.34
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.54
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.24
Eligible Matches-16
Lead Matches-11
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate12.7%
Trailing Win Rate5.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-16
First Half Goals For Mean-0.25
First Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.67
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.19
Portability PPG Range-0.50
Portability Score6.60
Rest days0.82
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-9
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.42
Normal Rest History Matches-17
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.24
Long Rest History Matches11
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.58
Current Team ELO-65.91
Current Opponent ELO65.91
Current ELO Difference-131.8
Expected score-0.19
History Matches-15
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.71
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.32

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Heerenveen

W
Heerenveen1–0NEC Nijmegen31 Oct · home
Pick: NEC Nijmegen 42% · missed
W
Excelsior Maassluis0–2Heerenveen28 Oct · away
Pick: Excelsior Maassluis 48% · missed
W
ADO Den Haag2–3Heerenveen24 Oct · away
Pick: ADO Den Haag 49% · missed
W
Heerenveen4–0Excelsior16 Oct · home
Pick: Excelsior 43% · missed
D
Willem II2–2Heerenveen30 Aug · away
Pick: Willem II 39% · missed

Feyenoord

L
Feyenoord0–3Inter3 Nov · home
Pick: Inter 46% · hit
D
Feyenoord1–1Fortuna Sittard31 Oct · home
Pick: Feyenoord 70% · missed
D
PSV Eindhoven1–1Feyenoord25 Oct · away
Pick: PSV Eindhoven 48% · missed
L
Real Betis1–0Feyenoord21 Oct · away
Pick: Real Betis 51% · hit
W
Telstar3–4Feyenoord17 Oct · away
Pick: Feyenoord 49% · hit

About this match

Heerenveen and Feyenoord meet in Eredivisie on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:15 UTC. The match is played at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Heerenveen win 31.5%, draw 22.8%, Feyenoord win 45.7%. The pick is Feyenoord win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.6%. Both teams to score: 62.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.