ScoreProb
Persha Liga Ukraine Round 15 2026

UCSA vs Probiy Horodenka

UCSA Home · Elo 1,452
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Probiy Horodenka Away · Elo 1,489
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: UCSA win
UCSA winPick
53.8%
Draw
20.3%
Probiy Horodenka win
25.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.3%
No47.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.2%
Under 2.547.8%

How much we know

UCSA history48 matches
Probiy Horodenka history43 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why UCSA are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Probiy Horodenka are rated 37 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,489 against 1,452. On rating alone Probiy Horodenka would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Probiy Horodenka score more

    1.02 goals a game over 48 matches for UCSA, against 1.30 over 43 for Probiy Horodenka.

  • Probiy Horodenka concede fewer

    UCSA concede 1.50 a game, Probiy Horodenka 1.30.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    46% of UCSA matches, against 49% for Probiy Horodenka. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
UCSA
Probiy Horodenka
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1451.7
ELO
1488.9
48
ELO · Matches
43
1451.7
Current Team ELO
1488.9
1488.9
Current Opponent ELO
1451.7
-37.19
Current ELO Difference
37.19
0.45
Expected score
0.55
48
History Matches
43
-0.05
Residual Mean
-0.01
46.30
Overperformance
49.00
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
1.80
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.20
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.90
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.41
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.89
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.76
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.69
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
43
1.06
PPG
1.37
27.1%
Win rate
39.5%
25.0%
Draw rate
18.6%
47.9%
Loss rate
41.9%
68.8%
Over 1.5 rate
67.4%
45.8%
Over 2.5 rate
48.8%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
32.6%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
22
1.13
PPG
1.32
26.1%
Win rate
36.4%
34.8%
Draw rate
22.7%
39.1%
Loss rate
40.9%
60.9%
Over 1.5 rate
63.6%
47.8%
Over 2.5 rate
45.5%
26.1%
Over 3.5 rate
31.8%
1.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
23
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.02
Goals for per game
1.30
50.0%
Scoring rate
67.4%
37.5%
BTTS rate
41.9%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.09
52.2%
Scoring rate
68.2%
39.1%
BTTS rate
40.9%
1.75
Goals for per game
1.00
75.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
48
History Matches
43
1.02
Goals Mean
1.30
1.23
Goals Std
1.25
50.0%
Scored 1+ rate
67.4%
31.3%
Scored 2+ rate
34.9%
16.7%
Scored 3+ rate
23.3%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.09
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.50
Goals against per game
1.30
75.0%
Conceding rate
65.1%
1.48
Goals against per game
1.27
69.6%
Conceding rate
59.1%
1.50
Goals against per game
2.25
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
48
History Matches
43
1.50
Conceded Mean
1.30
1.31
Conceded Std
1.25
39.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.2%
25.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.3%
1.48
Venue Conceded Mean
1.27
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
34.9%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
32.6%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
40.9%
47.8%
Failed-to-score rate
31.8%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
34.9%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
32.6%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
40.9%
47.8%
Failed-to-score rate
31.8%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
34.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
43
0.96
Result entropy
0.95
1.78
Goal Difference Std
1.80
4.16
Stability score
4.94
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
45
Eligible Matches
43
13
Lead Matches
18
69.2%
Lead Win Rate
72.2%
0.74
Lead Points Retention
0.76
13
Trailing Matches
11
7.7%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.53
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.91
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
78.04
Rest days
78.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
21
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.14
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.43
26
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.04
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.21
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.50
PPG
0.50
25.0%
Win rate
0.0%
75.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.50
Current Competition PPG
0.50
0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.25
7
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.36
Portability PPG Std
0.72
0.88
Portability PPG Range
1.75
57.93
Portability Score
41.08
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
43
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-37.19
PPG-0.31
GF-0.28
GA0.20
PPG1.00
PPG-0.19
PPG0.20
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate17.4%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate16.0%
History Matches5
Goals Mean-0.28
Goals Std-0.02
Scored 1+ rate-0.17
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean-0.09
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.52
History Matches5
Conceded Mean0.20
Conceded Std0.06
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Conceded 2+ rate2.4%
Conceded 3+ rate1.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.21
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.48
History Matches5
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.02
Stability score-0.78
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.53
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate7.7%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.50
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.35
Portability PPG Range-0.88
Portability Score16.86
Rest days-0.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.29
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Current Team ELO-37.19
Current Opponent ELO37.19
Current ELO Difference-74.37
Expected score-0.11
History Matches5
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.70
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

UCSA

L
Kulykiv2–0UCSA1 Nov · away
Pick: Kulykiv 51% · hit
W
UCSA3–2Lokomotiv Kyiv25 Oct · home
Pick: UCSA 40% · hit
D
Kolos Kovalivka II0–0UCSA17 Oct · away
Pick: Kolos Kovalivka II 48% · missed
L
Ahrobiznes Volochysk3–2UCSA4 Oct · away
Pick: Ahrobiznes Volochysk 50% · hit
L
UCSA1–2Inhulets29 Aug · home
Pick: UCSA 48% · missed

Probiy Horodenka

L
Oleksandria2–0Probiy Horodenka24 Oct · away
Pick: Oleksandria 66% · hit
W
Kulykiv1–2Probiy Horodenka4 Oct · away
Pick: Kulykiv 66% · missed
L
Probiy Horodenka0–3Viktoriya Mykolaivka30 Aug · home
Pick: Viktoriya Mykolaivka 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

UCSA and Probiy Horodenka meet in Persha Liga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: UCSA win 53.8%, draw 20.3%, Probiy Horodenka win 25.9%. The pick is UCSA win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.2%. Both teams to score: 52.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.