ScoreProb
Copa Chile Chile Quarter-finals 2026

Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido

Union La Calera Home · Elo 1,483
LIVE · 32'
0–1
Half time 0–1
Wed 4 Nov · 22:00 UTC
Coquimbo Unido Away · Elo 1,612
Venue to be confirmed Referee: J. Cabero Pick published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff
Pre-match probability, unchanged Model pick: Union La Calera win
Union La Calera winPick
39.1%
Draw
30.2%
Coquimbo Unido win
30.7%

Timeline

Newest at the bottom

27'
GoalE. Hernandez

Our pre-match picks, right now

Updates with every goal. There is no in-play model: this is the pre-match pick against the live score.

Match resultPick: Union La Calera win · 39.1%
Behind: trailing 0–1
Both teams to scorePick: No · 53.5%
Holding
Over 2.5 goalsPick: Under · 56.3%
Holding: 1 goal so far
The pre-match numbers never change after kickoff. That is what makes the record verifiable.

Both teams to score

Yes46.5%
No53.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.543.7%
Under 2.556.3%

How much we know

Union La Calera history55 matches
Coquimbo Unido history78 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Life of this match

Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 13 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. Kickoff
    4 Nov · 22:00 UTC
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

Share this match

A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.

The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
Save picture

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.1%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Union La Calera are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Coquimbo Unido are rated 129 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,612 against 1,483. On rating alone Coquimbo Unido would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Coquimbo Unido score more

    0.98 goals a game over 55 matches for Union La Calera, against 1.44 over 78 for Coquimbo Unido.

  • Coquimbo Unido concede fewer

    Union La Calera concede 1.29 a game, Coquimbo Unido 0.82.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    42% of Union La Calera matches, against 42% for Coquimbo Unido. The model puts this match at 44% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Union La Calera
Coquimbo Unido@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1482.7
ELO
1611.8
55
ELO · Matches
78
1482.7
Current Team ELO
1611.8
1611.8
Current Opponent ELO
1482.7
-129.1
Current ELO Difference
129.1
0.32
Expected score
0.68
55
History Matches
78
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.07
48.42
Overperformance
55.20
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.20
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.40
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
1.60
Goals against per game
0.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.20
1.00
Goals for per game
0.80
1.10
Goals against per game
0.80
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.40
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.22
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.60
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.92
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.63
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
78
1.07
PPG
1.94
27.3%
Win rate
55.1%
25.5%
Draw rate
28.2%
47.3%
Loss rate
16.7%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
41.8%
Over 2.5 rate
42.3%
21.8%
Over 3.5 rate
15.4%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.31
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
40
1.04
PPG
1.83
24.0%
Win rate
52.5%
32.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
44.0%
Loss rate
22.5%
68.0%
Over 1.5 rate
67.5%
52.0%
Over 2.5 rate
37.5%
28.0%
Over 3.5 rate
15.0%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.43
25
History Matches
40
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.98
Goals for per game
1.44
63.6%
Scoring rate
79.5%
40.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.24
Goals for per game
1.33
68.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
48.0%
BTTS rate
47.5%
2.17
Goals for per game
1.33
83.3%
Scoring rate
100.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
50.0%
55
History Matches
78
0.98
Goals Mean
1.44
1.04
Goals Std
1.10
63.6%
Scored 1+ rate
79.5%
20.0%
Scored 2+ rate
41.0%
10.9%
Scored 3+ rate
17.9%
1.24
Venue Goals Mean
1.33
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.29
Goals against per game
0.82
70.9%
Conceding rate
60.3%
1.40
Goals against per game
0.90
76.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
55
History Matches
78
1.29
Conceded Mean
0.82
1.19
Conceded Std
0.83
34.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
16.7%
16.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.1%
1.40
Venue Conceded Mean
0.90
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.1%
Clean-sheet rate
39.7%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
20.5%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
32.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
29.1%
Clean-sheet rate
39.7%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
20.5%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
32.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
29.1%
Clean-sheet rate
39.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
78
0.96
Result entropy
0.90
1.69
Goal Difference Std
1.31
3.80
Stability score
10.44
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
78
14
Lead Matches
26
57.1%
Lead Win Rate
80.8%
0.62
Lead Points Retention
0.87
15
Trailing Matches
14
26.7%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
13.3%
Trailing Win Rate
21.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
78
0.45
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
0.53
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.90
0.76
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.90
Rest days
73.25
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
6
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.17
31
Normal Rest History Matches
48
0.90
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.13
22
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.32
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.78
Competition & season17 signals
170
6
Matches
6
1.83
PPG
2.00
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
50.0%
16.7%
Loss rate
0.0%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
16.7%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.07
6
Current Competition Matches
6
1.83
Current Competition PPG
2.00
1.17
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.83
5
Competition Season Count
8
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.73
Portability PPG Std
0.39
1.95
Portability PPG Range
1.07
40.61
Portability Score
56.10
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
78
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-129.1
PPG-0.86
GF-0.45
GA0.47
PPG-0.17
PPG-0.79
PPG-0.60
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-23
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate15.9%
History Matches-15
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate12.0%
History Matches-23
Goals Mean-0.45
Goals Std-0.07
Scored 1+ rate-0.16
Scored 2+ rate-0.21
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean-0.09
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.70
History Matches-23
Conceded Mean0.47
Conceded Std0.36
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate17.9%
Conceded 3+ rate11.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.62
History Matches-23
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std0.38
Stability score-6.64
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.29
Eligible Matches-23
Lead Matches-12
Lead Win Rate-0.24
Lead Points Retention-0.25
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.23
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches-23
First Half Goals For Mean-0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.37
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.17
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.33
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.34
Portability PPG Range0.88
Portability Score-15.49
Rest days1.65
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-5
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Normal Rest History Matches-17
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.22
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.46
Current Team ELO-129.1
Current Opponent ELO129.1
Current ELO Difference-258.2
Expected score-0.36
History Matches-23
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-6.78
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.23

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Union La Calera

L
Coquimbo Unido1–0Union La Calera30 Oct · away
Pick: Coquimbo Unido 61% · hit
W
Union La Calera3–1U. Catolica25 Oct · home
Pick: U. Catolica 51% · missed
L
Union La Calera0–1D. La Serena31 Aug · home
Pick: D. La Serena 38% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Coquimbo Unido

W
Coquimbo Unido1–0Union La Calera30 Oct · home
Pick: Coquimbo Unido 61% · hit
L
Nublense2–1Coquimbo Unido25 Oct · away
Pick: Nublense 37% · hit
W
Coquimbo Unido2–1Cobreloa7 Oct · home
Pick: Coquimbo Unido 58% · hit
L
Coquimbo Unido1–2U. Catolica26 Aug · home
Pick: Coquimbo Unido 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Union La Calera and Coquimbo Unido meet in Copa Chile on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 22:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Union La Calera win 39.1%, draw 30.2%, Coquimbo Unido win 30.7%. The pick is Union La Calera win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.7%. Both teams to score: 46.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.