ScoreProb
Pro League U23 United Arab Emirates Round 8 2026

United FC U23 vs Al Nasr U23

United FC U23 Home · Elo 1,516
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
Al Nasr U23 Away · Elo 1,478
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: United FC U23 win
United FC U23 winPick
53.0%
Draw
22.1%
Al Nasr U23 win
24.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.7%
No44.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.5%
Under 2.539.5%

How much we know

United FC U23 history2 matches
Al Nasr U23 history15 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    9 Nov · 12:55 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why United FC U23 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • United FC U23 are rated 38 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,516 against 1,478. On rating alone United FC U23 would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • United FC U23 score far more

    2.50 goals a game over 2 matches for United FC U23, against 1.33 over 15 for Al Nasr U23.

  • United FC U23 concede fewer

    United FC U23 concede 1.00 a game, Al Nasr U23 1.73.

  • United FC U23 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of United FC U23 matches, against 40% for Al Nasr U23. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
United FC U23
Al Nasr U23
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1516.2
ELO
1478.0
2
ELO · Matches
15
1516.2
Current Team ELO
1478.0
1478.0
Current Opponent ELO
1516.2
38.27
Current ELO Difference
-38.27
0.55
Expected score
0.45
2
History Matches
15
0.50
Residual Mean
-0.08
54.53
Overperformance
46.57
0.50
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
2
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
0.40
2.50
Goals for per game
1.40
1.00
Goals against per game
2.40
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
2
Matches
10
3.00
PPG
0.90
2.50
Goals for per game
1.60
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Win rate
10.0%
2.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
0.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.92
Overall performance9 signals
90
2
Matches
15
3.00
PPG
1.07
100.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
46.7%
0.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
86.7%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.08
Venue performance10 signals
100
2
Matches
8
3.00
PPG
0.50
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.93
2
History Matches
8
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.50
Goals for per game
1.33
100.0%
Scoring rate
86.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
73.3%
2.50
Goals for per game
1.25
100.0%
Scoring rate
87.5%
50.0%
BTTS rate
87.5%
2.50
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
2
History Matches
15
2.50
Goals Mean
1.33
1.50
Goals Std
1.01
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
86.7%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
26.7%
50.0%
Scored 3+ rate
13.3%
2.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.25
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.00
Goals against per game
1.73
50.0%
Conceding rate
86.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.13
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
3.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
2
History Matches
15
1.00
Conceded Mean
1.73
1.00
Conceded Std
1.12
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
53.3%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.7%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
2.13
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
2
History Matches
15
0.00
Result entropy
0.95
0.50
Goal Difference Std
1.08
100.0
Stability score
4.99
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
2
Eligible Matches
13
2
Lead Matches
7
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
28.6%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.52
0
Trailing Matches
3
—
Non-loss rate
33.3%
—
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
2
Halftime Coverage Matches
13
2.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.85
1.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.23
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.95
Rest days
78.95
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
0
Normal Rest History Matches
4
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.25
1
Long Rest History Matches
10
3.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.80
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Portability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
2
Matches
2
3.00
PPG
0.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.50
1
Competition Season Count
2
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
2
Clean History Matches
15
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreNon-loss rateTrailing Win RatePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO38.27
PPG1.93
GF1.17
GA-0.73
PPG3.00
PPG2.50
PPG2.60
PPG2.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-13
Clean-sheet rate36.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate50.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches-13
Goals Mean1.17
Goals Std0.49
Scored 1+ rate13.3%
Scored 2+ rate23.3%
Scored 3+ rate36.7%
Venue Goals Mean1.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.39
History Matches-13
Conceded Mean-0.73
Conceded Std-0.12
Clean-sheet rate36.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate-0.27
Venue Conceded Mean-1.13
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.00
History Matches-13
Result entropy-0.95
Goal Difference Std-0.58
Stability score95.01
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.82
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.42
Eligible Matches-11
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate71.4%
Lead Points Retention0.48
Trailing Matches-3
Halftime Coverage Matches-11
First Half Goals For Mean1.15
First Half Goals Against Mean0.46
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean-1.23
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days-2.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest History Matches-9
Long Rest Points Per Match2.20
Current Team ELO38.27
Current Opponent ELO-38.27
Current ELO Difference76.54
Expected score0.11
History Matches-13
Residual Mean0.58
Overperformance7.96
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.62

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

United FC U23

W
Khorfakkan U230–4United FC U2331 Oct · away
Pick: United FC U23 65% · hit
L
United FC U231–5Al Dhafra U2317 Oct · home
Pick: United FC U23 65% · missed
L
Ittihad Kalba U233–1United FC U2329 Aug · away
Pick: Ittihad Kalba U23 40% · hit
W
United FC U234–2Bani Yas U2324 Aug · home
Pick: United FC U23 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Al Nasr U23

D
Al Nasr U233–3Al Sharjah U232 Nov · home
Pick: Al Sharjah U23 58% · missed
D
Hatta U232–2Al Nasr U2318 Oct · away
Pick: Hatta U23 42% · missed
L
Al Nasr U231–3Al Ain U2330 Aug · home
Pick: Al Ain U23 69% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

United FC U23 and Al Nasr U23 meet in Pro League U23 on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 12:55 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: United FC U23 win 53.0%, draw 22.1%, Al Nasr U23 win 24.9%. The pick is United FC U23 win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.5%. Both teams to score: 55.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.