ScoreProb
Serie D - Girone H Italy Group H - 11 2026

USD Palmese vs Martina Franca

USD Palmese Home · Elo 1,489
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Martina Franca Away · Elo 1,564
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Martina Franca win
USD Palmese win
29.4%
Draw
27.8%
Martina Franca winPick
42.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.2%
No49.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.5%
Under 2.552.5%

How much we know

USD Palmese history47 matches
Martina Franca history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Martina Franca are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Martina Franca are rated 75 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,564 against 1,489. On rating alone Martina Franca would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Martina Franca score more

    1.13 goals a game over 47 matches for USD Palmese, against 1.27 over 56 for Martina Franca.

  • Martina Franca concede fewer

    USD Palmese concede 1.30 a game, Martina Franca 0.95.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    43% of USD Palmese matches, against 39% for Martina Franca. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 18 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
USD Palmese
Martina Franca@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1489.1
ELO
1564.1
47
ELO · Matches
56
1489.1
Current Team ELO
1564.1
1564.1
Current Opponent ELO
1489.1
-75.08
Current ELO Difference
75.08
0.39
Expected score
0.61
47
History Matches
56
0.00
Residual Mean
0.06
49.68
Overperformance
54.59
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.20
0.20
Goals for per game
1.00
2.20
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.40
0.90
Goals for per game
1.40
1.30
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.51
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.49
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.08
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.17
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
56
1.19
PPG
1.68
27.7%
Win rate
46.4%
36.2%
Draw rate
28.6%
36.2%
Loss rate
25.0%
66.0%
Over 1.5 rate
62.5%
42.6%
Over 2.5 rate
39.3%
29.8%
Over 3.5 rate
17.9%
1.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
26
1.32
PPG
1.15
32.0%
Win rate
26.9%
36.0%
Draw rate
34.6%
32.0%
Loss rate
38.5%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
57.7%
28.0%
Over 2.5 rate
34.6%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
15.4%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.35
25
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.13
Goals for per game
1.27
61.7%
Scoring rate
69.6%
48.9%
BTTS rate
39.3%
1.04
Goals for per game
0.88
60.0%
Scoring rate
61.5%
36.0%
BTTS rate
46.2%
47
History Matches
56
1.13
Goals Mean
1.27
1.25
Goals Std
1.13
61.7%
Scored 1+ rate
69.6%
29.8%
Scored 2+ rate
37.5%
12.8%
Scored 3+ rate
16.1%
1.04
Venue Goals Mean
0.88
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.30
Goals against per game
0.95
74.5%
Conceding rate
57.1%
1.08
Goals against per game
1.19
68.0%
Conceding rate
69.2%
47
History Matches
56
1.30
Conceded Mean
0.95
1.13
Conceded Std
1.12
31.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
21.4%
19.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.7%
1.08
Venue Conceded Mean
1.19
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
38.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
38.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
56
0.99
Result entropy
0.97
1.68
Goal Difference Std
1.60
0.68
Stability score
3.45
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
47
Eligible Matches
56
14
Lead Matches
20
64.3%
Lead Win Rate
85.0%
0.74
Lead Points Retention
0.90
15
Trailing Matches
12
20.0%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
13.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.55
First Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
0.57
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
190.0
Rest days
175.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
4
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.25
32
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.28
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.52
14
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.07
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.95
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.14
Portability PPG Std
0.08
0.27
Portability PPG Range
0.16
78.57
Portability Score
86.01
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-75.08
PPG-0.49
GF-0.14
GA0.35
PPG0.17
PPG-0.60
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate7.9%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate1.2%
Failed-to-score rate1.5%
History Matches-9
Goals Mean-0.14
Goals Std0.12
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.16
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.49
History Matches-9
Conceded Mean0.35
Conceded Std0.00
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate10.5%
Conceded 3+ rate8.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.11
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.41
History Matches-9
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.08
Stability score-2.77
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.17
Eligible Matches-9
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate-0.21
Lead Points Retention-0.16
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.05
Trailing Win Rate13.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-9
First Half Goals For Mean-0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.26
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.06
Portability PPG Range0.11
Portability Score-7.44
Rest days15.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.23
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.88
Current Team ELO-75.08
Current Opponent ELO75.08
Current ELO Difference-150.2
Expected score-0.21
History Matches-9
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-4.91
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

USD Palmese

L
USD Palmese1–2Ischia1 Nov · home
Pick: Ischia 39% · hit
D
Melfi2–2USD Palmese24 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 36% · hit
W
USD Palmese4–2Nardò4 Oct · home
Pick: Nardò 37% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Martina Franca

D
Ischia1–1Martina Franca25 Oct · away
Pick: Martina Franca 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

USD Palmese and Martina Franca meet in Serie D - Girone H on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: USD Palmese win 29.4%, draw 27.8%, Martina Franca win 42.8%. The pick is Martina Franca win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.5%. Both teams to score: 50.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.