ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 Spain Group 6 - 10 2026

Utiel vs Buñol

Utiel Home · Elo 1,460
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Buñol Away · Elo 1,511
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Utiel win
Utiel winPick
51.1%
Draw
27.2%
Buñol win
21.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.8%
No53.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.0%
Under 2.556.0%

How much we know

Utiel history53 matches
Buñol history33 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Utiel are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Buñol are rated 51 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,511 against 1,460. On rating alone Buñol would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    0.94 goals a game over 53 matches for Utiel, against 1.03 over 33 for Buñol.

  • Defences are close

    Utiel concede 1.09 a game, Buñol 1.21.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    38% of Utiel matches, against 39% for Buñol. The model puts this match at 44% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 10 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Utiel
Buñol
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1459.7
ELO
1510.9
53
ELO · Matches
33
1459.7
Current Team ELO
1510.9
1510.9
Current Opponent ELO
1459.7
-51.22
Current ELO Difference
51.22
0.43
Expected score
0.57
53
History Matches
33
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.01
47.30
Overperformance
50.79
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
0.40
1.60
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.30
1.10
Goals for per game
0.70
1.60
Goals against per game
1.50
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.78
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.69
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.23
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
33
1.26
PPG
1.48
30.2%
Win rate
39.4%
35.8%
Draw rate
30.3%
34.0%
Loss rate
30.3%
60.4%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
37.7%
Over 2.5 rate
39.4%
18.9%
Over 3.5 rate
24.2%
1.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
17
1.37
PPG
1.29
33.3%
Win rate
35.3%
37.0%
Draw rate
23.5%
29.6%
Loss rate
41.2%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
76.5%
37.0%
Over 2.5 rate
47.1%
11.1%
Over 3.5 rate
29.4%
1.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
27
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.94
Goals for per game
1.03
64.2%
Scoring rate
66.7%
47.2%
BTTS rate
39.4%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
74.1%
Scoring rate
70.6%
55.6%
BTTS rate
52.9%
53
History Matches
33
0.94
Goals Mean
1.03
0.86
Goals Std
0.90
64.2%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
26.4%
Scored 2+ rate
30.3%
3.8%
Scored 3+ rate
6.1%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.09
Goals against per game
1.21
67.9%
Conceding rate
60.6%
1.07
Goals against per game
1.65
70.4%
Conceding rate
82.4%
53
History Matches
33
1.09
Conceded Mean
1.21
0.98
Conceded Std
1.30
30.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
11.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.2%
1.07
Venue Conceded Mean
1.65
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
39.4%
35.8%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
29.6%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
25.9%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
39.4%
35.8%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
29.6%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
25.9%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
39.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
33
1.00
Result entropy
0.99
1.22
Goal Difference Std
1.71
0.23
Stability score
0.73
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
33
8
Lead Matches
5
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
40.0%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.60
10
Trailing Matches
11
30.0%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
18.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
33
0.42
First Half Goals For Mean
0.24
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
0.53
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
183.0
Rest days
183.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
25
Normal Rest History Matches
13
1.52
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.46
26
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.08
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.33
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
1
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.28
Portability PPG Std
—
0.66
Portability PPG Range
—
64.40
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
33
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO-51.22
PPG-0.22
GF-0.09
GA-0.12
PPG0.08
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches20
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate2.5%
History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate12.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches20
Goals Mean-0.09
Goals Std-0.05
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.16
History Matches20
Conceded Mean-0.12
Conceded Std-0.32
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.57
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.77
History Matches20
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.49
Stability score-0.50
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.87
Eligible Matches20
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate47.5%
Lead Points Retention0.32
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate2.7%
Trailing Win Rate-0.18
Halftime Coverage Matches20
First Half Goals For Mean0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-3.00
Normal Rest History Matches12
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.06
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.26
Current Team ELO-51.22
Current Opponent ELO51.22
Current ELO Difference-102.4
Expected score-0.15
History Matches20
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.49
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Utiel

L
Utiel0–1Villarreal III25 Oct · home
Pick: Villarreal III 38% · hit
L
Saguntino3–2Utiel4 Oct · away
Pick: Saguntino 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Buñol

W
Buñol2–0Vall de Uxó31 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 38% · missed
W
Crevillente0–1Buñol25 Oct · away
Pick: Crevillente 44% · missed
L
Buñol0–1Torrent4 Oct · home
Pick: Torrent 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Utiel and Buñol meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Utiel win 51.1%, draw 27.2%, Buñol win 21.7%. The pick is Utiel win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.0%. Both teams to score: 46.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.