ScoreProb
Ettan - Södra Sweden Södra - 30 2026

Utsikten vs Kristianstad

Utsikten Home · Elo 1,365
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kristianstad Away · Elo 1,526
Nordic Wellness Arena Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Kristianstad win
Utsikten win
29.7%
Draw
21.8%
Kristianstad winPick
48.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.2%
No42.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.2%
Under 2.536.8%

How much we know

Utsikten history64 matches
Kristianstad history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Kristianstad are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Kristianstad are rated 161 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,526 against 1,365. On rating alone Kristianstad would be expected to take 72% of the points on offer.

  • Kristianstad score more

    1.19 goals a game over 64 matches for Utsikten, against 1.60 over 55 for Kristianstad.

  • Kristianstad concede fewer

    Utsikten concede 2.17 a game, Kristianstad 1.27.

  • Utsikten games more often go over 2.5 goals

    75% of Utsikten matches, against 62% for Kristianstad. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Utsikten
Kristianstad
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1365.0
ELO
1526.3
64
ELO · Matches
55
1365.0
Current Team ELO
1526.3
1526.3
Current Opponent ELO
1365.0
-161.3
Current ELO Difference
161.3
0.28
Expected score
0.72
64
History Matches
55
-0.10
Residual Mean
0.02
42.04
Overperformance
51.67
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.80
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.80
Goals against per game
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.60
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.10
2.00
Goals against per game
1.60
10.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.60
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
55
0.72
PPG
1.69
15.6%
Win rate
49.1%
25.0%
Draw rate
21.8%
59.4%
Loss rate
29.1%
90.6%
Over 1.5 rate
78.2%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
61.8%
43.8%
Over 3.5 rate
30.9%
1.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
27
0.97
PPG
1.59
22.6%
Win rate
48.1%
29.0%
Draw rate
14.8%
48.4%
Loss rate
37.0%
87.1%
Over 1.5 rate
81.5%
67.7%
Over 2.5 rate
63.0%
38.7%
Over 3.5 rate
29.6%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.14
31
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.19
Goals for per game
1.60
70.3%
Scoring rate
83.6%
65.6%
BTTS rate
56.4%
1.35
Goals for per game
1.48
71.0%
Scoring rate
81.5%
64.5%
BTTS rate
55.6%
0.83
Goals for per game
1.06
55.6%
Scoring rate
72.2%
55.6%
BTTS rate
61.1%
64
History Matches
55
1.19
Goals Mean
1.60
1.10
Goals Std
1.22
70.3%
Scored 1+ rate
83.6%
31.3%
Scored 2+ rate
47.3%
10.9%
Scored 3+ rate
18.2%
1.35
Venue Goals Mean
1.48
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.17
Goals against per game
1.27
93.8%
Conceding rate
67.3%
1.87
Goals against per game
1.48
90.3%
Conceding rate
74.1%
2.56
Goals against per game
1.61
94.4%
Conceding rate
77.8%
64
History Matches
55
2.17
Conceded Mean
1.27
1.31
Conceded Std
1.41
64.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.7%
37.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.4%
1.87
Venue Conceded Mean
1.48
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
6.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
29.7%
Failed-to-score rate
16.4%
9.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
29.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
5.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
44.4%
Failed-to-score rate
27.8%
6.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
29.7%
Failed-to-score rate
16.4%
9.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
29.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
6.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
55
0.86
Result entropy
0.95
1.96
Goal Difference Std
2.05
13.88
Stability score
5.28
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
51
12
Lead Matches
19
58.3%
Lead Win Rate
73.7%
0.64
Lead Points Retention
0.77
31
Trailing Matches
10
19.4%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
0.45
First Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.95
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.73
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
1.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.90
Rest days
76.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
34
Normal Rest History Matches
29
0.71
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.69
28
Long Rest History Matches
25
0.71
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.76
Competition & season17 signals
170
18
Matches
18
0.39
PPG
0.94
5.6%
Win rate
22.2%
22.2%
Draw rate
27.8%
72.2%
Loss rate
50.0%
88.9%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
77.8%
Over 2.5 rate
61.1%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
27.8%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
18
Current Competition Matches
18
0.39
Current Competition PPG
0.94
-1.72
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.56
7
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.30
Portability PPG Std
0.56
0.75
Portability PPG Range
1.29
62.24
Portability Score
47.17
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-161.3
PPG-0.97
GF-0.41
GA0.90
PPG-0.56
PPG-0.62
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate-0.26
Failed-to-score rate13.3%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate10.5%
History Matches9
Goals Mean-0.41
Goals Std-0.11
Scored 1+ rate-0.13
Scored 2+ rate-0.16
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean-0.13
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.28
History Matches9
Conceded Mean0.90
Conceded Std-0.10
Clean-sheet rate-0.26
Conceded 2+ rate31.3%
Conceded 3+ rate21.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.39
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.02
History Matches9
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std-0.10
Stability score8.60
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.40
Eligible Matches13
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate-0.15
Lead Points Retention-0.13
Trailing Matches21
Non-loss rate-0.01
Trailing Win Rate-0.20
Halftime Coverage Matches13
First Half Goals For Mean-0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean0.48
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.40
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.56
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.17
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.26
Portability PPG Range-0.54
Portability Score15.07
Rest days-2.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.98
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.05
Current Team ELO-161.3
Current Opponent ELO161.3
Current ELO Difference-322.6
Expected score-0.43
History Matches9
Residual Mean-0.13
Overperformance-9.63
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Utsikten

W
Atvidabergs FF1–2Utsikten1 Nov · away
Pick: Atvidabergs FF 76% · missed
L
Utsikten1–4Tvååker23 Oct · home
Pick: Tvååker 60% · hit
L
Olympic4–1Utsikten18 Oct · away
Pick: Olympic 64% · hit
L
Trelleborg2–1Utsikten30 Aug · away
Pick: Trelleborg 69% · hit
L
Utsikten1–2BK Hacken25 Aug · home
Pick: BK Hacken 49% · hit

Kristianstad

W
Kristianstad3–0Eskilsminne31 Oct · home
Pick: Eskilsminne 42% · missed
W
Rosengård1–2Kristianstad24 Oct · away
Pick: Rosengård 49% · missed
W
Kristianstad3–1Trollhättan18 Oct · home
Pick: Kristianstad 45% · hit
W
Kristianstad5–2Atvidabergs FF29 Aug · home
Pick: Atvidabergs FF 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Utsikten and Kristianstad meet in Ettan - Södra on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Nordic Wellness Arena. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Utsikten win 29.7%, draw 21.8%, Kristianstad win 48.5%. The pick is Kristianstad win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.2%. Both teams to score: 57.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.