ScoreProb
3. Division Denmark Round 15 2026

Vanløse vs Hørsholm-Usserød

Vanløse Home · Elo 1,538
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hørsholm-Usserød Away · Elo 1,508
Vanlose Idraetspark Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Vanløse win
Vanløse winPick
53.2%
Draw
23.6%
Hørsholm-Usserød win
23.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.6%
No43.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.5%
Under 2.537.5%

How much we know

Vanløse history63 matches
Hørsholm-Usserød history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Vanløse are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Vanløse are rated 31 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,538 against 1,508. On rating alone Vanløse would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Hørsholm-Usserød score more

    1.57 goals a game over 63 matches for Vanløse, against 1.90 over 59 for Hørsholm-Usserød.

  • Vanløse concede fewer

    Vanløse concede 1.24 a game, Hørsholm-Usserød 1.69.

  • Hørsholm-Usserød games more often go over 2.5 goals

    51% of Vanløse matches, against 64% for Hørsholm-Usserød. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Vanløse
Hørsholm-Usserød
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1538.1
ELO
1507.6
63
ELO · Matches
59
1538.1
Current Team ELO
1507.6
1507.6
Current Opponent ELO
1538.1
30.54
Current ELO Difference
-30.54
0.54
Expected score
0.46
63
History Matches
59
0.02
Residual Mean
0.00
51.89
Overperformance
49.85
0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
2.20
2.80
Goals for per game
2.80
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.70
2.00
Goals for per game
2.50
1.00
Goals against per game
1.80
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.50
1.26
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.12
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.25
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.19
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
59
1.54
PPG
1.42
42.9%
Win rate
39.0%
25.4%
Draw rate
25.4%
31.7%
Loss rate
35.6%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
86.4%
50.8%
Over 2.5 rate
64.4%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
52.5%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.04
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
32
1.63
PPG
1.38
46.7%
Win rate
37.5%
23.3%
Draw rate
25.0%
30.0%
Loss rate
37.5%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
46.7%
Over 2.5 rate
68.8%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
53.1%
2.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
30
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.57
Goals for per game
1.90
79.4%
Scoring rate
81.4%
50.8%
BTTS rate
57.6%
1.60
Goals for per game
1.75
76.7%
Scoring rate
84.4%
36.7%
BTTS rate
59.4%
2.00
Goals for per game
2.25
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
63
History Matches
59
1.57
Goals Mean
1.90
1.31
Goals Std
1.39
79.4%
Scored 1+ rate
81.4%
44.4%
Scored 2+ rate
59.3%
17.5%
Scored 3+ rate
28.8%
1.60
Venue Goals Mean
1.75
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.24
Goals against per game
1.69
65.1%
Conceding rate
76.3%
1.17
Goals against per game
1.81
53.3%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
63
History Matches
59
1.24
Conceded Mean
1.69
1.22
Conceded Std
1.37
36.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.8%
15.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.1%
1.17
Venue Conceded Mean
1.81
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
34.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.7%
20.6%
Failed-to-score rate
18.6%
46.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
15.6%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
34.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.7%
20.6%
Failed-to-score rate
18.6%
46.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
15.6%
34.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
59
0.98
Result entropy
0.99
1.94
Goal Difference Std
2.04
2.11
Stability score
1.41
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
56
18
Lead Matches
21
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
76.2%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.83
16
Trailing Matches
14
31.3%
Non-loss rate
35.7%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
0.98
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.09
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.90
Rest days
73.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
39
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.77
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.44
23
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.09
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.40
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.75
PPG
1.25
50.0%
Win rate
25.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.09
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.75
Current Competition PPG
1.25
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.25
8
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.67
Portability PPG Std
0.48
1.89
Portability PPG Range
1.22
42.82
Portability Score
51.07
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO30.54
PPG0.12
GF-0.33
GA-0.46
PPG0.50
PPG0.26
PPG0.20
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate11.2%
Failed-to-score rate2.0%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate21.7%
Failed-to-score rate7.7%
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.33
Goals Std-0.08
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate-0.15
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean-0.15
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.15
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.46
Conceded Std-0.15
Clean-sheet rate11.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.14
Conceded 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Conceded Mean-0.65
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.47
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.10
Stability score0.70
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.36
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate1.6%
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.04
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.29
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.75
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.19
Portability PPG Range0.67
Portability Score-8.26
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.33
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.31
Current Team ELO30.54
Current Opponent ELO-30.54
Current ELO Difference61.07
Expected score0.09
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Vanløse

W
Holbæk B&I0–1Vanløse31 Oct · away
Pick: Holbæk B&I 49% · missed
W
Vanløse1–0ASA Aarhus24 Oct · home
Pick: Vanløse 58% · hit
L
Vanløse0–2Nykobing FC21 Oct · home
Pick: Vanløse 47% · missed
D
Næsby2–2Vanløse17 Oct · away
Pick: Næsby 38% · missed
D
Vanløse2–2Frem29 Aug · home
Pick: Vanløse 52% · missed

Hørsholm-Usserød

W
Hørsholm-Usserød3–2Sundby31 Oct · home
Pick: Hørsholm-Usserød 52% · hit
W
Holstebro0–4Hørsholm-Usserød24 Oct · away
Pick: Holstebro 54% · missed
D
Hørsholm-Usserød1–1Frem17 Oct · home
Pick: Hørsholm-Usserød 42% · missed
L
Hørsholm-Usserød0–2Brønshøj29 Aug · home
Pick: Hørsholm-Usserød 48% · missed
W
FC Helsingor2–5Hørsholm-Usserød25 Aug · away
Pick: FC Helsingor 51% · missed

About this match

Vanløse and Hørsholm-Usserød meet in 3. Division on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Vanlose Idraetspark. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Vanløse win 53.2%, draw 23.6%, Hørsholm-Usserød win 23.2%. The pick is Vanløse win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.5%. Both teams to score: 56.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.