ScoreProb
Serie A Italy Round 11 2026

Venezia vs Udinese

Venezia Home · Elo 1,628
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Udinese Away · Elo 1,527
Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo, Venice Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Venezia win
Venezia winPick
41.4%
Draw
28.9%
Udinese win
29.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.1%
No45.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.8%
Under 2.546.2%

How much we know

Venezia history71 matches
Udinese history68 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Venezia are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Venezia are rated 100 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,628 against 1,527. On rating alone Venezia would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Venezia score far more

    1.96 goals a game over 71 matches for Venezia, against 1.15 over 68 for Udinese.

  • Venezia concede fewer

    Venezia concede 1.07 a game, Udinese 1.25.

  • Venezia games more often go over 2.5 goals

    55% of Venezia matches, against 43% for Udinese. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Venezia
Udinese@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1627.6
ELO
1527.2
71
ELO · Matches
68
1627.6
Current Team ELO
1527.2
1527.2
Current Opponent ELO
1627.6
100.4
Current ELO Difference
-100.4
0.64
Expected score
0.36
71
History Matches
68
0.09
Residual Mean
0.03
56.96
Overperformance
52.18
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.00
2.20
Goals for per game
0.80
2.00
Goals against per game
0.40
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.20
2.90
Goals for per game
1.00
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.97
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.89
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.98
Overall performance9 signals
90
71
Matches
68
1.76
PPG
1.35
47.9%
Win rate
38.2%
32.4%
Draw rate
20.6%
19.7%
Loss rate
41.2%
84.5%
Over 1.5 rate
67.6%
54.9%
Over 2.5 rate
42.6%
36.6%
Over 3.5 rate
19.1%
2.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
31
2.25
PPG
1.32
72.2%
Win rate
38.7%
8.3%
Draw rate
16.1%
19.4%
Loss rate
45.2%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
74.2%
58.3%
Over 2.5 rate
38.7%
38.9%
Over 3.5 rate
19.4%
2.29
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.61
36
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.96
Goals for per game
1.15
80.3%
Scoring rate
72.1%
53.5%
BTTS rate
44.1%
2.39
Goals for per game
1.13
80.6%
Scoring rate
71.0%
38.9%
BTTS rate
45.2%
0.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
71
History Matches
68
1.96
Goals Mean
1.15
1.66
Goals Std
0.96
80.3%
Scored 1+ rate
72.1%
57.7%
Scored 2+ rate
30.9%
31.0%
Scored 3+ rate
11.8%
2.39
Venue Goals Mean
1.13
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.07
Goals against per game
1.25
63.4%
Conceding rate
69.1%
0.81
Goals against per game
1.32
52.8%
Conceding rate
74.2%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
71
History Matches
68
1.07
Conceded Mean
1.25
1.08
Conceded Std
1.13
31.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.2%
8.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.2%
0.81
Venue Conceded Mean
1.32
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
36.6%
Clean-sheet rate
30.9%
19.7%
Failed-to-score rate
27.9%
47.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
29.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
36.6%
Clean-sheet rate
30.9%
19.7%
Failed-to-score rate
27.9%
47.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
29.0%
36.6%
Clean-sheet rate
30.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
71
History Matches
68
0.94
Result entropy
0.96
2.09
Goal Difference Std
1.54
5.53
Stability score
3.67
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
70
Eligible Matches
67
33
Lead Matches
24
72.7%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.74
9
Trailing Matches
19
33.3%
Non-loss rate
10.5%
22.2%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
70
Halftime Coverage Matches
67
0.93
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.14
Rest days
76.14
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
5
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
47
Normal Rest History Matches
40
1.72
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.53
22
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.82
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.95
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
7
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.51
Portability PPG Std
0.36
1.33
Portability PPG Range
0.88
49.65
Portability Score
58.37
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
71
Clean History Matches
68
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO100.4
PPG0.41
GF0.81
GA-0.18
PPG-1.00
PPG0.93
PPG-0.60
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate5.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate21.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.81
Goals Std0.70
Scored 1+ rate8.2%
Scored 2+ rate26.9%
Scored 3+ rate19.2%
Venue Goals Mean1.26
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.90
Recent 10 Goals Std1.08
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.18
Conceded Std-0.05
Clean-sheet rate5.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.52
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.30
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.54
Stability score1.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.64
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate6.1%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches-10
Non-loss rate22.8%
Trailing Win Rate22.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.15
Portability PPG Range0.46
Portability Score-8.72
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.20
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.86
Current Team ELO100.4
Current Opponent ELO-100.4
Current ELO Difference200.8
Expected score0.28
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.78
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Venezia

L
Como1–0Venezia1 Nov · away
Pick: Como 53% · hit
L
Venezia0–2Inter28 Oct · home
Pick: Inter 55% · hit
L
Genoa1–0Venezia25 Oct · away
Pick: Venezia 37% · missed
W
Venezia1–0Napoli17 Oct · home
Pick: Napoli 47% · missed
L
Atalanta3–1Venezia12 Oct · away
Pick: Atalanta 54% · hit

Udinese

L
Udinese2–5AS Roma31 Oct · home
Pick: AS Roma 52% · hit
D
Parma0–0Udinese28 Oct · away
Pick: Udinese 37% · missed
L
Udinese0–2AC Milan25 Oct · home
Pick: AC Milan 38% · hit
L
Udinese0–3Lecce18 Oct · home
Pick: Udinese 40% · missed
L
Torino2–1Udinese12 Oct · away
Pick: Torino 37% · hit

About this match

Venezia and Udinese meet in Serie A on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. The match is played at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo, Venice. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Venezia win 41.4%, draw 28.9%, Udinese win 29.7%. The pick is Venezia win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.8%. Both teams to score: 54.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.