ScoreProb
Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein Germany Schleswig-Holstein - 16 2026

VfR Neumünster vs Union Neumünster

VfR Neumünster Home · Elo 1,575
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Union Neumünster Away · Elo 1,535
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: VfR Neumünster win
VfR Neumünster winPick
57.4%
Draw
18.5%
Union Neumünster win
24.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes66.5%
No33.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.577.8%
Under 2.522.2%

How much we know

VfR Neumünster history46 matches
Union Neumünster history46 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why VfR Neumünster are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • VfR Neumünster are rated 39 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,575 against 1,535. On rating alone VfR Neumünster would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Union Neumünster score more

    2.11 goals a game over 46 matches for VfR Neumünster, against 2.37 over 46 for Union Neumünster.

  • Defences are close

    VfR Neumünster concede 1.78 a game, Union Neumünster 1.74.

  • VfR Neumünster games more often go over 2.5 goals

    89% of VfR Neumünster matches, against 78% for Union Neumünster. The model puts this match at 78% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
VfR Neumünster
Union Neumünster
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1574.8
ELO
1535.5
46
ELO · Matches
46
1574.8
Current Team ELO
1535.5
1535.5
Current Opponent ELO
1574.8
39.34
Current ELO Difference
-39.34
0.56
Expected score
0.44
46
History Matches
46
0.08
Residual Mean
0.03
55.60
Overperformance
52.33
0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
1.60
3.00
Goals for per game
2.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.80
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.70
2.10
Goals for per game
2.50
1.60
Goals against per game
2.30
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.50
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.36
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
1.62
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.19
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.94
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
46
1.72
PPG
1.72
50.0%
Win rate
52.2%
21.7%
Draw rate
15.2%
28.3%
Loss rate
32.6%
95.7%
Over 1.5 rate
91.3%
89.1%
Over 2.5 rate
78.3%
63.0%
Over 3.5 rate
65.2%
2.18
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.62
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
24
1.74
PPG
1.50
47.8%
Win rate
41.7%
30.4%
Draw rate
25.0%
21.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
95.7%
Over 1.5 rate
91.7%
87.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
60.9%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
2.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.81
23
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.11
Goals for per game
2.37
91.3%
Scoring rate
84.8%
80.4%
BTTS rate
60.9%
2.00
Goals for per game
2.42
87.0%
Scoring rate
87.5%
82.6%
BTTS rate
75.0%
3.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
80.0%
46
History Matches
46
2.11
Goals Mean
2.37
1.22
Goals Std
1.70
91.3%
Scored 1+ rate
84.8%
67.4%
Scored 2+ rate
71.7%
39.1%
Scored 3+ rate
45.7%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
2.42
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.78
Goals against per game
1.74
84.8%
Conceding rate
76.1%
1.87
Goals against per game
2.00
91.3%
Conceding rate
87.5%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.80
80.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
46
History Matches
46
1.78
Conceded Mean
1.74
1.38
Conceded Std
1.52
47.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.8%
28.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.3%
1.87
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
15.2%
Clean-sheet rate
23.9%
8.7%
Failed-to-score rate
15.2%
8.7%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
13.0%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
15.2%
Clean-sheet rate
23.9%
8.7%
Failed-to-score rate
15.2%
8.7%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
13.0%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
15.2%
Clean-sheet rate
23.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
46
0.94
Result entropy
0.90
2.18
Goal Difference Std
2.62
5.75
Stability score
9.76
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
46
Eligible Matches
46
22
Lead Matches
19
77.3%
Lead Win Rate
78.9%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.84
12
Trailing Matches
13
33.3%
Non-loss rate
15.4%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
0.98
First Half Goals For Mean
1.13
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
1.13
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.24
1.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.98
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.00
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
29
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.55
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.63
15
Long Rest History Matches
17
2.20
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.88
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
1.60
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
5
Current Competition Matches
5
2.60
Current Competition PPG
1.60
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.20
4
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.46
Portability PPG Std
0.44
1.00
Portability PPG Range
0.99
52.27
Portability Score
53.32
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
46
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO39.34
PPG0.00
GF-0.26
GA0.04
PPG1.00
PPG0.24
PPG1.00
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate0.5%
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.26
Goals Std-0.48
Scored 1+ rate6.5%
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean-0.42
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.34
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.04
Conceded Std-0.14
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.13
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.44
History Matches0
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.45
Stability score-4.01
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.79
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate17.9%
Trailing Win Rate8.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.80
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.02
Portability PPG Range0.01
Portability Score-1.05
Rest days0.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.08
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.32
Current Team ELO39.34
Current Opponent ELO-39.34
Current ELO Difference78.68
Expected score0.11
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

VfR Neumünster

L
VfR Neumünster1–2Rotenhof1 Nov · home
Pick: VfR Neumünster 67% · missed
D
Oldenburger SV2–2VfR Neumünster27 Oct · away
Pick: VfR Neumünster 61% · missed
W
TSB Flensburg2–3VfR Neumünster25 Oct · away
Pick: VfR Neumünster 56% · hit
W
VfR Neumünster3–2Hohenwestedt18 Oct · home
Pick: VfR Neumünster 61% · hit
W
VfR Neumünster3–0Eckernförder SV30 Aug · home
Pick: VfR Neumünster 83% · hit

Union Neumünster

L
Kaltenkirchen1–0Union Neumünster31 Oct · away
Pick: Union Neumünster 40% · missed
W
Rapid Lubeck1–7Union Neumünster17 Oct · away
Pick: Rapid Lubeck 47% · missed
L
Union Neumünster1–4Kilia Kiel29 Aug · home
Pick: Kilia Kiel 42% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

VfR Neumünster and Union Neumünster meet in Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: VfR Neumünster win 57.4%, draw 18.5%, Union Neumünster win 24.1%. The pick is VfR Neumünster win. Over 2.5 goals: 77.8%. Both teams to score: 66.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.