ScoreProb
Ligue 2 Algeria Round 9 2026

WA Tlemcen vs GC Mascara

WA Tlemcen Home · Elo 1,496
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
GC Mascara Away · Elo 1,464
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: GC Mascara win
WA Tlemcen win
31.9%
Draw
31.5%
GC Mascara winPick
36.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.5%
No51.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.540.0%
Under 2.560.0%

How much we know

WA Tlemcen history28 matches
GC Mascara history42 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why GC Mascara are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • WA Tlemcen are rated 32 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,496 against 1,464. On rating alone WA Tlemcen would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    0.93 goals a game over 28 matches for WA Tlemcen, against 0.98 over 42 for GC Mascara.

  • WA Tlemcen concede fewer

    WA Tlemcen concede 1.11 a game, GC Mascara 1.31.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    32% of WA Tlemcen matches, against 38% for GC Mascara. The model puts this match at 40% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 9 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
WA Tlemcen
GC Mascara@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1495.7
ELO
1464.2
28
ELO · Matches
42
1495.7
Current Team ELO
1464.2
1464.2
Current Opponent ELO
1495.7
31.57
Current ELO Difference
-31.57
0.55
Expected score
0.45
28
History Matches
42
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.05
49.55
Overperformance
46.62
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.80
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.30
0.80
Goals for per game
1.60
1.30
Goals against per game
1.20
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.27
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.63
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
28
Matches
42
1.32
PPG
1.00
35.7%
Win rate
23.8%
25.0%
Draw rate
28.6%
39.3%
Loss rate
47.6%
57.1%
Over 1.5 rate
69.0%
32.1%
Over 2.5 rate
38.1%
17.9%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
Venue performance10 signals
100
14
Matches
23
1.50
PPG
0.52
35.7%
Win rate
8.7%
42.9%
Draw rate
26.1%
21.4%
Loss rate
65.2%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
82.6%
21.4%
Over 2.5 rate
47.8%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
21.7%
1.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.38
14
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.93
Goals for per game
0.98
64.3%
Scoring rate
59.5%
39.3%
BTTS rate
42.9%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.78
64.3%
Scoring rate
52.2%
42.9%
BTTS rate
47.8%
28
History Matches
42
0.93
Goals Mean
0.98
0.88
Goals Std
1.03
64.3%
Scored 1+ rate
59.5%
21.4%
Scored 2+ rate
26.2%
7.1%
Scored 3+ rate
9.5%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
0.78
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.11
Goals against per game
1.31
64.3%
Conceding rate
73.8%
0.64
Goals against per game
1.78
57.1%
Conceding rate
87.0%
28
History Matches
42
1.11
Conceded Mean
1.31
1.08
Conceded Std
1.08
32.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.1%
10.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.7%
0.64
Venue Conceded Mean
1.78
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
26.2%
35.7%
Failed-to-score rate
40.5%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
13.0%
35.7%
Failed-to-score rate
47.8%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
26.2%
35.7%
Failed-to-score rate
40.5%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
13.0%
35.7%
Failed-to-score rate
47.8%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
26.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
28
History Matches
42
0.98
Result entropy
0.96
1.39
Goal Difference Std
1.52
1.57
Stability score
4.16
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
28
Eligible Matches
42
6
Lead Matches
13
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
53.8%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.64
6
Trailing Matches
11
16.7%
Non-loss rate
18.2%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
28
Halftime Coverage Matches
42
0.32
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
0.61
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
182.0
Rest days
182.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
14
Normal Rest History Matches
22
1.21
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.86
13
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.54
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.21
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
3
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.11
—
Portability PPG Range
0.22
—
Portability Score
82.17
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
28
Clean History Matches
42
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO31.57
PPG0.32
GF-0.05
GA-0.20
PPG0.98
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-14
Clean-sheet rate9.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate29.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches-14
Goals Mean-0.05
Goals Std-0.15
Scored 1+ rate4.8%
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.22
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.24
History Matches-14
Conceded Mean-0.20
Conceded Std0.00
Clean-sheet rate9.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.40
History Matches-14
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.13
Stability score-2.59
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.00
Eligible Matches-14
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate46.2%
Lead Points Retention0.36
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.02
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches-14
First Half Goals For Mean-0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.35
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.33
Current Team ELO31.57
Current Opponent ELO-31.57
Current ELO Difference63.15
Expected score0.09
History Matches-14
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.93
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

WA Tlemcen

L
Sidi Benali3–2WA Tlemcen30 Oct · away
Pick: Sidi Benali 37% · hit
L
WA Tlemcen0–2Blida13 Oct · home
Pick: WA Tlemcen 59% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

GC Mascara

W
GC Mascara5–1Hussein Dey30 Oct · home
Pick: Hussein Dey 34% · missed
W
Koléa2–4GC Mascara24 Oct · away
Pick: Koléa 40% · missed
W
GC Mascara1–0Usm El Harrach19 Oct · home
Pick: Usm El Harrach 45% · missed
W
GC Mascara2–0Sidi Benali13 Oct · home
Pick: GC Mascara 64% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

WA Tlemcen and GC Mascara meet in Ligue 2 on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: WA Tlemcen win 31.9%, draw 31.5%, GC Mascara win 36.6%. The pick is GC Mascara win. Over 2.5 goals: 40.0%. Both teams to score: 48.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.