ScoreProb
NPFL Nigeria Round 12 2027

Warri Wolves vs Katsina United

Warri Wolves Home · Elo 1,486
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Katsina United Away · Elo 1,508
Warri Township Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Draw
Warri Wolves win
33.5%
DrawPick
45.3%
Katsina United win
21.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.3%
No55.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.536.0%
Under 2.564.0%

How much we know

Warri Wolves history38 matches
Katsina United history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why a draw is the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,486 against 1,508. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    0.95 goals a game over 38 matches for Warri Wolves, against 0.90 over 52 for Katsina United.

  • Defences are close

    Warri Wolves concede 1.08 a game, Katsina United 1.04.

  • Warri Wolves games more often go over 2.5 goals

    34% of Warri Wolves matches, against 25% for Katsina United. The model puts this match at 36% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Warri Wolves
Katsina United
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1486.4
ELO
1508.0
38
ELO · Matches
52
1486.4
Current Team ELO
1508.0
1508.0
Current Opponent ELO
1486.4
-21.65
Current ELO Difference
21.65
0.47
Expected score
0.53
38
History Matches
52
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.01
48.84
Overperformance
50.58
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.80
0.60
Goals for per game
1.60
1.60
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.40
1.10
Goals for per game
1.10
1.50
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.30
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.36
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.85
Overall performance9 signals
90
38
Matches
52
1.29
PPG
1.38
34.2%
Win rate
38.5%
26.3%
Draw rate
23.1%
39.5%
Loss rate
38.5%
55.3%
Over 1.5 rate
51.9%
34.2%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
10.5%
Over 3.5 rate
13.5%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
Venue performance10 signals
100
19
Matches
26
1.84
PPG
0.50
47.4%
Win rate
7.7%
42.1%
Draw rate
26.9%
10.5%
Loss rate
65.4%
57.9%
Over 1.5 rate
53.8%
21.1%
Over 2.5 rate
19.2%
5.3%
Over 3.5 rate
7.7%
1.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
19
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.95
Goals for per game
0.90
63.2%
Scoring rate
53.8%
36.8%
BTTS rate
28.8%
1.05
Goals for per game
0.27
68.4%
Scoring rate
23.1%
31.6%
BTTS rate
19.2%
38
History Matches
52
0.95
Goals Mean
0.90
0.86
Goals Std
1.15
63.2%
Scored 1+ rate
53.8%
28.9%
Scored 2+ rate
19.2%
2.6%
Scored 3+ rate
11.5%
1.05
Venue Goals Mean
0.27
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.08
Goals against per game
1.04
57.9%
Conceding rate
65.4%
0.53
Goals against per game
1.50
36.8%
Conceding rate
84.6%
38
History Matches
52
1.08
Conceded Mean
1.04
1.22
Conceded Std
1.14
28.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.1%
13.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.7%
0.53
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
42.1%
Clean-sheet rate
34.6%
36.8%
Failed-to-score rate
46.2%
63.2%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
31.6%
Failed-to-score rate
76.9%
42.1%
Clean-sheet rate
34.6%
36.8%
Failed-to-score rate
46.2%
63.2%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
31.6%
Failed-to-score rate
76.9%
42.1%
Clean-sheet rate
34.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
38
History Matches
52
0.99
Result entropy
0.98
1.30
Goal Difference Std
1.75
1.22
Stability score
2.30
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
38
Eligible Matches
52
5
Lead Matches
14
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.90
12
Trailing Matches
10
8.3%
Non-loss rate
10.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
38
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.34
First Half Goals For Mean
0.42
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.37
0.61
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.45
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
168.0
Rest days
168.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
32
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.13
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.31
5
Long Rest History Matches
21
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.43
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.05
—
Portability PPG Range
0.10
—
Portability Score
90.57
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
38
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-21.65
PPG-0.10
GF0.04
GA0.04
PPG1.34
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-14
Clean-sheet rate7.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate47.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.45
History Matches-14
Goals Mean0.04
Goals Std-0.29
Scored 1+ rate9.3%
Scored 2+ rate9.7%
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean0.78
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.26
History Matches-14
Conceded Mean0.04
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate7.5%
Conceded 2+ rate5.9%
Conceded 3+ rate5.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.97
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.25
History Matches-14
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.45
Stability score-1.07
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.22
Eligible Matches-14
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate14.3%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.02
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-14
First Half Goals For Mean-0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean0.27
Second Half Goals For Mean0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.19
Long Rest History Matches-16
Long Rest Points Per Match0.57
Current Team ELO-21.65
Current Opponent ELO21.65
Current ELO Difference-43.31
Expected score-0.06
History Matches-14
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-1.74
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Warri Wolves

D
Plateau United1–1Warri Wolves1 Nov · away
Pick: Plateau United 57% · missed
D
Warri Wolves0–0Kano Pillars24 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 39% · hit
D
Enyimba0–0Warri Wolves18 Oct · away
Pick: Enyimba 54% · missed
L
Bendel Insurance2–1Warri Wolves30 Aug · away
Pick: Bendel Insurance 60% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Katsina United

W
Katsina United2–1Sporting Lagos1 Nov · home
Pick: Katsina United 66% · hit
L
Kano Pillars1–0Katsina United18 Oct · away
Pick: Kano Pillars 47% · hit
D
Inter Lagos1–1Katsina United4 Oct · away
Pick: Inter Lagos 38% · missed
D
Enugu Rangers1–1Katsina United30 Aug · away
Pick: Enugu Rangers 48% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Warri Wolves and Katsina United meet in NPFL on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Warri Township Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Warri Wolves win 33.5%, draw 45.3%, Katsina United win 21.1%. The pick is a draw. Over 2.5 goals: 36.0%. Both teams to score: 44.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.