ScoreProb
Regionalliga - Nord Germany North - 17 2026

Werder Bremen II vs Bremer SV

Werder Bremen II Home · Elo 1,481
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bremer SV Away · Elo 1,503
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bremer SV win
Werder Bremen II win
37.3%
Draw
24.5%
Bremer SV winPick
38.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes66.0%
No34.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.7%
Under 2.534.3%

How much we know

Werder Bremen II history60 matches
Bremer SV history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.3%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Bremer SV are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,481 against 1,503. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Werder Bremen II score more

    2.10 goals a game over 60 matches for Werder Bremen II, against 1.43 over 60 for Bremer SV.

  • Bremer SV concede fewer

    Werder Bremen II concede 2.00 a game, Bremer SV 1.47.

  • Werder Bremen II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    78% of Werder Bremen II matches, against 55% for Bremer SV. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 20 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Werder Bremen II
Bremer SV
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1481.0
ELO
1502.7
60
ELO · Matches
60
1481.0
Current Team ELO
1502.7
1502.7
Current Opponent ELO
1481.0
-21.73
Current ELO Difference
21.73
0.47
Expected score
0.53
60
History Matches
60
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.01
48.58
Overperformance
50.91
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.23
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
0.80
1.00
Goals for per game
0.40
3.00
Goals against per game
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
0.70
1.90
Goals for per game
0.70
2.60
Goals against per game
1.70
30.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
1.81
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.64
2.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.68
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.90
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.67
Overall performance9 signals
90
60
Matches
60
1.30
PPG
1.35
33.3%
Win rate
36.7%
30.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
36.7%
Loss rate
38.3%
93.3%
Over 1.5 rate
76.7%
78.3%
Over 2.5 rate
55.0%
61.7%
Over 3.5 rate
31.7%
2.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
27
1.38
PPG
1.33
37.9%
Win rate
37.0%
24.1%
Draw rate
22.2%
37.9%
Loss rate
40.7%
93.1%
Over 1.5 rate
81.5%
79.3%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
58.6%
Over 3.5 rate
25.9%
3.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.02
29
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.10
Goals for per game
1.43
86.7%
Scoring rate
71.7%
76.7%
BTTS rate
53.3%
2.28
Goals for per game
1.30
86.2%
Scoring rate
70.4%
72.4%
BTTS rate
51.9%
1.25
Goals for per game
0.25
75.0%
Scoring rate
25.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
60
History Matches
60
2.10
Goals Mean
1.43
1.76
Goals Std
1.20
86.7%
Scored 1+ rate
71.7%
53.3%
Scored 2+ rate
45.0%
31.7%
Scored 3+ rate
21.7%
2.28
Venue Goals Mean
1.30
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.00
Goals against per game
1.47
85.0%
Conceding rate
76.7%
1.86
Goals against per game
1.52
82.8%
Conceding rate
77.8%
2.50
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
60
History Matches
60
2.00
Conceded Mean
1.47
1.55
Conceded Std
1.31
55.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.3%
31.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
1.86
Venue Conceded Mean
1.52
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
15.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.3%
17.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
29.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
75.0%
15.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.3%
17.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
29.6%
15.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
60
History Matches
60
1.00
Result entropy
0.98
2.64
Goal Difference Std
1.83
0.30
Stability score
1.51
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
60
Eligible Matches
56
22
Lead Matches
16
63.6%
Lead Win Rate
68.8%
0.74
Lead Points Retention
0.73
19
Trailing Matches
18
36.8%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
15.8%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
60
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.90
First Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.92
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
1.20
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
1.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
79.85
Rest days
83.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.33
28
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.29
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.15
27
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.44
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.73
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.25
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
25.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
75.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.25
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.75
5
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.58
Portability PPG Std
0.42
1.67
Portability PPG Range
1.13
46.29
Portability Score
54.42
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
60
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-21.73
PPG-0.05
GF0.67
GA0.53
PPG-0.75
PPG0.05
PPG-0.60
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.67
Goals Std0.56
Scored 1+ rate15.0%
Scored 2+ rate8.3%
Scored 3+ rate10.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.98
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std1.17
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.53
Conceded Std0.24
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate16.7%
Conceded 3+ rate11.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.34
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.18
History Matches0
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.82
Stability score-1.21
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.23
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate3.5%
Trailing Win Rate4.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean0.29
Second Half Goals For Mean0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.35
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.16
Portability PPG Range0.54
Portability Score-8.13
Rest days-3.15
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.42
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.14
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.28
Current Team ELO-21.73
Current Opponent ELO21.73
Current ELO Difference-43.46
Expected score-0.06
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.33
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Werder Bremen II

W
VfB Lübeck2–5Werder Bremen II31 Oct · away
Pick: VfB Lübeck 51% · missed
L
Werder Bremen II1–4Hamburger SV II28 Oct · home
Pick: Werder Bremen II 51% · missed
W
Werder Bremen II3–2Kickers Emden24 Oct · home
Pick: Werder Bremen II 42% · hit
L
SSV Jeddeloh3–2Werder Bremen II17 Oct · away
Pick: SSV Jeddeloh 50% · hit
L
Werder Bremen II0–2Hannover 96 II6 Oct · home
Pick: Hannover 96 II 50% · hit

Bremer SV

D
SSV Jeddeloh0–0Bremer SV1 Nov · away
Pick: SSV Jeddeloh 43% · missed
W
Bremer SV4–1Hamburger SV II25 Oct · home
Pick: Bremer SV 52% · hit
L
Atlas Delmenhorst2–0Bremer SV16 Oct · away
Pick: Atlas Delmenhorst 56% · hit
D
Bremer SV2–2Schöningen30 Aug · home
Pick: Schöningen 49% · missed
L
Eimsbütteler TV3–1Bremer SV26 Aug · away
Pick: Eimsbütteler TV 56% · hit

About this match

Werder Bremen II and Bremer SV meet in Regionalliga - Nord on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Werder Bremen II win 37.3%, draw 24.5%, Bremer SV win 38.3%. The pick is Bremer SV win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.7%. Both teams to score: 66.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.