ScoreProb
III Liga - Group 4 Poland Group IV - 17 2026

Wisłoka Dębica vs Czarni Połaniec

Wisłoka Dębica Home · Elo 1,483
Fri 13 Nov
UTC
Not started
Czarni Połaniec Away · Elo 1,519
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Wisłoka Dębica win
Wisłoka Dębica winPick
39.0%
Draw
25.9%
Czarni Połaniec win
35.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.4%
No44.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.6%
Under 2.545.4%

How much we know

Wisłoka Dębica history58 matches
Czarni Połaniec history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    13 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.0%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,748 matches.

Why Wisłoka Dębica are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Czarni Połaniec are rated 36 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,519 against 1,483. On rating alone Czarni Połaniec would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Czarni Połaniec score more

    1.21 goals a game over 58 matches for Wisłoka Dębica, against 1.59 over 59 for Czarni Połaniec.

  • Wisłoka Dębica concede fewer

    Wisłoka Dębica concede 1.41 a game, Czarni Połaniec 1.58.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    52% of Wisłoka Dębica matches, against 58% for Czarni Połaniec. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Wisłoka Dębica
Czarni Połaniec@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1483.2
ELO
1519.4
58
ELO · Matches
59
1483.2
Current Team ELO
1519.4
1519.4
Current Opponent ELO
1483.2
-36.24
Current ELO Difference
36.24
0.45
Expected score
0.55
58
History Matches
59
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.02
48.27
Overperformance
51.17
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.80
1.40
Goals for per game
1.60
1.60
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.80
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.33
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
59
1.26
PPG
1.46
32.8%
Win rate
44.1%
27.6%
Draw rate
13.6%
39.7%
Loss rate
42.4%
69.0%
Over 1.5 rate
79.7%
51.7%
Over 2.5 rate
57.6%
27.6%
Over 3.5 rate
37.3%
1.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.08
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
30
1.12
PPG
1.17
30.8%
Win rate
33.3%
19.2%
Draw rate
16.7%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
61.5%
Over 1.5 rate
76.7%
46.2%
Over 2.5 rate
56.7%
23.1%
Over 3.5 rate
36.7%
1.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.21
26
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.21
Goals for per game
1.59
69.0%
Scoring rate
76.3%
55.2%
BTTS rate
55.9%
1.15
Goals for per game
1.53
61.5%
Scoring rate
70.0%
38.5%
BTTS rate
56.7%
1.40
Goals for per game
1.60
80.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
58
History Matches
59
1.21
Goals Mean
1.59
1.35
Goals Std
1.32
69.0%
Scored 1+ rate
76.3%
27.6%
Scored 2+ rate
45.8%
13.8%
Scored 3+ rate
25.4%
1.15
Venue Goals Mean
1.53
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.41
Goals against per game
1.58
74.1%
Conceding rate
76.3%
1.42
Goals against per game
1.80
65.4%
Conceding rate
83.3%
1.60
Goals against per game
1.60
100.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
58
History Matches
59
1.41
Conceded Mean
1.58
1.22
Conceded Std
1.49
39.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.1%
20.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.3%
1.42
Venue Conceded Mean
1.80
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.7%
31.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.7%
34.6%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
38.5%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.7%
31.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.7%
34.6%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
38.5%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
59
0.99
Result entropy
0.91
1.74
Goal Difference Std
2.08
1.00
Stability score
9.35
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
58
11
Lead Matches
13
81.8%
Lead Win Rate
92.3%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.95
20
Trailing Matches
25
30.0%
Non-loss rate
16.0%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
4.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.48
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.72
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
0.72
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.95
0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.04
Rest days
83.33
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.60
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
25
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.28
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.13
27
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.30
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.60
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.40
Current Competition PPG
1.80
-0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
5
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.23
Portability PPG Std
0.29
0.57
Portability PPG Range
0.80
68.91
Portability Score
63.02
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-36.24
PPG-0.20
GF-0.39
GA-0.16
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.05
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate2.1%
Failed-to-score rate7.3%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate17.9%
Failed-to-score rate8.5%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.39
Goals Std0.03
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.18
Scored 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Goals Mean-0.38
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.33
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.16
Conceded Std-0.27
Clean-sheet rate2.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate0.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.38
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.23
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.34
Stability score-8.35
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.00
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate14.0%
Trailing Win Rate6.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.20
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.07
Portability PPG Range-0.23
Portability Score5.89
Rest days-0.29
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.40
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.15
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.30
Current Team ELO-36.24
Current Opponent ELO36.24
Current ELO Difference-72.47
Expected score-0.10
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.89
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Wisłoka Dębica

W
Wisłoka Dębica2–1KSZO 192931 Oct · home
Pick: KSZO 1929 47% · missed
L
Wisła Kraków II3–1Wisłoka Dębica24 Oct · away
Pick: Wisła Kraków II 49% · hit
W
Wisłoka Dębica4–0Naprzód17 Oct · home
Pick: Wisłoka Dębica 51% · hit
L
Siarka Tarnobrzeg1–0Wisłoka Dębica29 Aug · away
Pick: Siarka Tarnobrzeg 55% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Czarni Połaniec

D
Jarosław2–2Czarni Połaniec31 Oct · away
Pick: Jarosław 47% · missed
W
Czarni Połaniec2–1Busko-Zdroj24 Oct · home
Pick: Czarni Połaniec 61% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Wisłoka Dębica and Czarni Połaniec meet in III Liga - Group 4 on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Wisłoka Dębica win 39.0%, draw 25.9%, Czarni Połaniec win 35.1%. The pick is Wisłoka Dębica win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.6%. Both teams to score: 55.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.