ScoreProb
2. Liga Austria Round 12 2026

WSPG Wels vs Sturm Graz II

WSPG Wels Home · Elo 1,516
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sturm Graz II Away · Elo 1,422
Huber-Arena, Wels Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: WSPG Wels win
WSPG Wels winPick
58.8%
Draw
19.9%
Sturm Graz II win
21.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.8%
No40.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.3%
Under 2.535.7%

How much we know

WSPG Wels history66 matches
Sturm Graz II history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why WSPG Wels are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • WSPG Wels are rated 95 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,516 against 1,422. On rating alone WSPG Wels would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.53 goals a game over 66 matches for WSPG Wels, against 1.42 over 62 for Sturm Graz II.

  • WSPG Wels concede fewer

    WSPG Wels concede 1.47 a game, Sturm Graz II 1.73.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    58% of WSPG Wels matches, against 63% for Sturm Graz II. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
WSPG Wels
Sturm Graz II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1516.5
ELO
1421.6
66
ELO · Matches
62
1516.5
Current Team ELO
1421.6
1421.6
Current Opponent ELO
1516.5
94.92
Current ELO Difference
-94.92
0.63
Expected score
0.37
66
History Matches
62
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.05
51.40
Overperformance
46.19
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.24
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.60
1.40
Goals for per game
1.00
1.60
Goals against per game
3.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
0.30
1.30
Goals for per game
1.00
2.10
Goals against per game
2.80
30.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.18
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.80
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.30
1.72
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.78
Overall performance9 signals
90
66
Matches
62
1.36
PPG
1.06
37.9%
Win rate
29.0%
22.7%
Draw rate
19.4%
39.4%
Loss rate
51.6%
80.3%
Over 1.5 rate
85.5%
57.6%
Over 2.5 rate
62.9%
39.4%
Over 3.5 rate
37.1%
1.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
27
1.49
PPG
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
25.9%
28.6%
Draw rate
22.2%
31.4%
Loss rate
51.9%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
37.0%
1.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
35
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.53
Goals for per game
1.42
75.8%
Scoring rate
74.2%
63.6%
BTTS rate
64.5%
1.54
Goals for per game
1.11
80.0%
Scoring rate
74.1%
65.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.25
Goals for per game
1.25
75.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
66
History Matches
62
1.53
Goals Mean
1.42
1.26
Goals Std
1.36
75.8%
Scored 1+ rate
74.2%
43.9%
Scored 2+ rate
32.3%
25.8%
Scored 3+ rate
21.0%
1.54
Venue Goals Mean
1.11
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.47
Goals against per game
1.73
84.8%
Conceding rate
88.7%
1.40
Goals against per game
1.81
82.9%
Conceding rate
88.9%
1.75
Goals against per game
2.75
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
66
History Matches
62
1.47
Conceded Mean
1.73
1.05
Conceded Std
1.09
42.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
54.8%
13.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.4%
1.40
Venue Conceded Mean
1.81
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
15.2%
Clean-sheet rate
11.3%
24.2%
Failed-to-score rate
25.8%
17.1%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
15.2%
Clean-sheet rate
11.3%
24.2%
Failed-to-score rate
25.8%
17.1%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
15.2%
Clean-sheet rate
11.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
66
History Matches
62
0.98
Result entropy
0.93
1.68
Goal Difference Std
1.90
2.47
Stability score
7.31
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
62
18
Lead Matches
16
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
81.3%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.88
17
Trailing Matches
23
23.5%
Non-loss rate
13.0%
17.6%
Trailing Win Rate
4.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.66
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
0.84
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.92
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.92
Rest days
76.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
37
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.49
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.28
25
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.36
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.81
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.00
PPG
0.75
25.0%
Win rate
25.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
1.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.18
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.75
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.50
7
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.61
Portability PPG Std
0.32
1.89
Portability PPG Range
0.75
44.90
Portability Score
61.22
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
66
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO94.92
PPG0.30
GF0.11
GA-0.26
PPG0.25
PPG0.49
PPG0.80
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate3.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate6.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches4
Goals Mean0.11
Goals Std-0.10
Scored 1+ rate1.6%
Scored 2+ rate11.7%
Scored 3+ rate4.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.43
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.18
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.26
Conceded Std-0.05
Clean-sheet rate3.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.41
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.17
History Matches4
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.22
Stability score-4.84
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.52
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.06
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate10.5%
Trailing Win Rate13.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.30
Portability PPG Range1.14
Portability Score-16.31
Rest days0.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.21
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.55
Current Team ELO94.92
Current Opponent ELO-94.92
Current ELO Difference189.8
Expected score0.27
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance5.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

WSPG Wels

L
SKN ST. Polten2–1WSPG Wels30 Oct · away
Pick: SKN ST. Polten 47% · hit
W
WSPG Wels1–0Wolfsberger AC27 Oct · home
Pick: Wolfsberger AC 51% · missed
L
WSPG Wels2–6Voitsberg23 Oct · home
Pick: WSPG Wels 44% · missed
D
Austria Vienna (Am)2–2WSPG Wels16 Oct · away
Pick: Austria Vienna (Am) 46% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Sturm Graz II

W
Sturm Graz II2–0Voitsberg31 Oct · home
Pick: Voitsberg 51% · missed
L
Austria Vienna (Am)1–0Sturm Graz II23 Oct · away
Pick: Austria Vienna (Am) 61% · hit
L
Sturm Graz II0–2SV Kapfenberg18 Oct · home
Pick: Sturm Graz II 47% · missed
W
Sturm Graz II5–2Rapid Wien II30 Aug · home
Pick: Rapid Wien II 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

WSPG Wels and Sturm Graz II meet in 2. Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:30 UTC. The match is played at Huber-Arena, Wels. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: WSPG Wels win 58.8%, draw 19.9%, Sturm Graz II win 21.4%. The pick is WSPG Wels win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.3%. Both teams to score: 59.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.