ScoreProb
League One China Round 30 2026

Wuxi Wugou vs Changchun Yatai

Wuxi Wugou Home · Elo 1,568
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Changchun Yatai Away · Elo 1,435
Wuxi Sport Center Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Wuxi Wugou win
Wuxi Wugou winPick
55.7%
Draw
24.5%
Changchun Yatai win
19.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.6%
No46.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.3%
Under 2.543.7%

How much we know

Wuxi Wugou history53 matches
Changchun Yatai history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 21 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 06:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.7%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Wuxi Wugou are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Wuxi Wugou are rated 133 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,568 against 1,435. On rating alone Wuxi Wugou would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Wuxi Wugou score more

    1.49 goals a game over 53 matches for Wuxi Wugou, against 1.20 over 51 for Changchun Yatai.

  • Wuxi Wugou concede fewer

    Wuxi Wugou concede 0.87 a game, Changchun Yatai 1.73.

  • Changchun Yatai games more often go over 2.5 goals

    40% of Wuxi Wugou matches, against 65% for Changchun Yatai. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Wuxi Wugou
Changchun Yatai
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1568.3
ELO
1435.3
53
ELO · Matches
51
1568.3
Current Team ELO
1435.3
1435.3
Current Opponent ELO
1568.3
133.0
Current ELO Difference
-133.0
0.68
Expected score
0.32
53
History Matches
51
0.06
Residual Mean
-0.06
54.06
Overperformance
45.51
-0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.40
1.60
Goals for per game
2.40
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
2.10
1.60
Goals against per game
1.80
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
1.47
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.45
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.25
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.89
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.45
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
51
1.83
PPG
0.92
52.8%
Win rate
23.5%
24.5%
Draw rate
21.6%
22.6%
Loss rate
54.9%
67.9%
Over 1.5 rate
80.4%
39.6%
Over 2.5 rate
64.7%
18.9%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
26
2.00
PPG
0.69
56.0%
Win rate
15.4%
32.0%
Draw rate
23.1%
12.0%
Loss rate
61.5%
56.0%
Over 1.5 rate
84.6%
32.0%
Over 2.5 rate
61.5%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
34.6%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
25
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.49
Goals for per game
1.20
73.6%
Scoring rate
74.5%
41.5%
BTTS rate
64.7%
1.40
Goals for per game
1.12
72.0%
Scoring rate
69.2%
28.0%
BTTS rate
69.2%
1.61
Goals for per game
1.74
72.2%
Scoring rate
89.5%
55.6%
BTTS rate
78.9%
53
History Matches
51
1.49
Goals Mean
1.20
1.31
Goals Std
1.12
73.6%
Scored 1+ rate
74.5%
45.3%
Scored 2+ rate
27.5%
17.0%
Scored 3+ rate
11.8%
1.40
Venue Goals Mean
1.12
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.87
Goals against per game
1.73
56.6%
Conceding rate
86.3%
0.68
Goals against per game
1.77
36.0%
Conceding rate
96.2%
1.28
Goals against per game
1.79
77.8%
Conceding rate
89.5%
53
History Matches
51
0.87
Conceded Mean
1.73
0.93
Conceded Std
1.12
22.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
58.8%
7.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.6%
0.68
Venue Conceded Mean
1.77
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
43.4%
Clean-sheet rate
13.7%
26.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.5%
64.0%
Clean-sheet rate
3.8%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
10.5%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
10.5%
43.4%
Clean-sheet rate
13.7%
26.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.5%
64.0%
Clean-sheet rate
3.8%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
43.4%
Clean-sheet rate
13.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
51
0.93
Result entropy
0.91
1.58
Goal Difference Std
1.70
7.33
Stability score
8.93
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
51
21
Lead Matches
10
90.5%
Lead Win Rate
70.0%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.80
9
Trailing Matches
19
22.2%
Non-loss rate
10.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
0.72
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.42
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.94
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.81
Rest days
75.81
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
32
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.78
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.85
20
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.85
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.04
Competition & season17 signals
170
18
Matches
19
1.28
PPG
1.37
33.3%
Win rate
42.1%
27.8%
Draw rate
10.5%
38.9%
Loss rate
47.4%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
89.5%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
89.5%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
47.4%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.19
18
Current Competition Matches
19
1.28
Current Competition PPG
1.37
0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.05
4
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.38
Portability PPG Std
0.37
0.86
Portability PPG Range
0.74
57.09
Portability Score
57.63
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO133.0
PPG0.91
GF0.29
GA-0.86
PPG-0.09
PPG1.31
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate29.7%
Failed-to-score rate0.9%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate60.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.29
Goals Std0.19
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate17.8%
Scored 3+ rate5.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.28
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.02
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.86
Conceded Std-0.19
Clean-sheet rate29.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.36
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-1.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.33
History Matches2
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.12
Stability score-1.60
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.56
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate20.5%
Lead Points Retention0.14
Trailing Matches-10
Non-loss rate11.7%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.53
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.09
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.39
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.01
Portability PPG Range0.12
Portability Score-0.55
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.93
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.81
Current Team ELO133.0
Current Opponent ELO-133.0
Current ELO Difference265.9
Expected score0.37
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.12
Overperformance8.55
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.29

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Wuxi Wugou

W
Guangxi Hengchen1–2Wuxi Wugou31 Oct · away
Pick: Guangxi Hengchen 50% · missed
W
Wuxi Wugou2–0Shaanxi Union25 Oct · home
Pick: Wuxi Wugou 45% · hit
L
Wuxi Wugou0–2Heilongjiang Lava Spring17 Oct · home
Pick: Wuxi Wugou 52% · missed
D
Wuxi Wugou2–2Suzhou Dongwu6 Oct · home
Pick: Wuxi Wugou 53% · missed
L
Hebei Kungfu2–0Wuxi Wugou29 Aug · away
Pick: Wuxi Wugou 37% · missed

Changchun Yatai

W
Changchun Yatai1–0Nantong Zhiyun31 Oct · home
Pick: Nantong Zhiyun 43% · missed
W
Changchun Yatai4–1Meizhou Kejia24 Oct · home
Pick: Changchun Yatai 56% · hit
D
Guangxi Hengchen2–2Changchun Yatai17 Oct · away
Pick: Guangxi Hengchen 64% · missed
D
Changchun Yatai1–1Yanbian Longding6 Oct · home
Pick: Yanbian Longding 44% · missed
L
Guangzhou E-Power3–0Changchun Yatai30 Aug · away
Pick: Guangzhou E-Power 72% · hit

About this match

Wuxi Wugou and Changchun Yatai meet in League One on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 06:30 UTC. The match is played at Wuxi Sport Center. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Wuxi Wugou win 55.7%, draw 24.5%, Changchun Yatai win 19.8%. The pick is Wuxi Wugou win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.3%. Both teams to score: 53.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.