ScoreProb
League One China Round 30 2026

Nantong Zhiyun vs Dongguan United

Nantong Zhiyun Home · Elo 1,554
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Dongguan United Away · Elo 1,378
Rugao Olympic Sports Center Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Nantong Zhiyun win
Nantong Zhiyun winPick
72.5%
Draw
17.0%
Dongguan United win
10.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.8%
No53.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.9%
Under 2.542.1%

How much we know

Nantong Zhiyun history51 matches
Dongguan United history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 21 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 06:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (72.5%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Nantong Zhiyun are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Nantong Zhiyun are rated 177 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,554 against 1,378. On rating alone Nantong Zhiyun would be expected to take 73% of the points on offer.

  • Nantong Zhiyun score more

    1.37 goals a game over 51 matches for Nantong Zhiyun, against 0.92 over 52 for Dongguan United.

  • Nantong Zhiyun concede fewer

    Nantong Zhiyun concede 0.96 a game, Dongguan United 1.83.

  • Dongguan United games more often go over 2.5 goals

    33% of Nantong Zhiyun matches, against 50% for Dongguan United. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Nantong Zhiyun
Dongguan United
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1554.4
ELO
1377.8
51
ELO · Matches
52
1554.4
Current Team ELO
1377.8
1377.8
Current Opponent ELO
1554.4
176.7
Current ELO Difference
-176.7
0.73
Expected score
0.27
51
History Matches
52
0.05
Residual Mean
-0.12
53.44
Overperformance
41.49
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.32
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.20
2.20
Goals for per game
0.80
0.80
Goals against per game
2.80
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
0.10
1.70
Goals for per game
0.60
0.90
Goals against per game
2.70
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.60
1.55
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.66
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.70
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.55
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.30
1.66
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.81
Overall performance9 signals
90
51
Matches
52
1.53
PPG
0.77
41.2%
Win rate
17.3%
29.4%
Draw rate
25.0%
29.4%
Loss rate
57.7%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
80.8%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
21.6%
Over 3.5 rate
28.8%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
27
2.00
PPG
0.74
62.5%
Win rate
18.5%
12.5%
Draw rate
18.5%
25.0%
Loss rate
63.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
74.1%
37.5%
Over 2.5 rate
51.9%
29.2%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.08
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
24
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.37
Goals for per game
0.92
74.5%
Scoring rate
65.4%
45.1%
BTTS rate
53.8%
1.92
Goals for per game
0.89
83.3%
Scoring rate
63.0%
37.5%
BTTS rate
44.4%
1.32
Goals for per game
1.00
78.9%
Scoring rate
65.0%
52.6%
BTTS rate
55.0%
51
History Matches
52
1.37
Goals Mean
0.92
1.41
Goals Std
0.83
74.5%
Scored 1+ rate
65.4%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
23.1%
11.8%
Scored 3+ rate
3.8%
1.92
Venue Goals Mean
0.89
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.96
Goals against per game
1.83
60.8%
Conceding rate
84.6%
0.83
Goals against per game
1.96
54.2%
Conceding rate
81.5%
0.74
Goals against per game
2.15
52.6%
Conceding rate
90.0%
51
History Matches
52
0.96
Conceded Mean
1.83
1.03
Conceded Std
1.33
21.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
57.7%
11.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.0%
0.83
Venue Conceded Mean
1.96
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
39.2%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
25.5%
Failed-to-score rate
34.6%
45.8%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
37.0%
47.4%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
21.1%
Failed-to-score rate
35.0%
39.2%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
25.5%
Failed-to-score rate
34.6%
45.8%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
37.0%
39.2%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
51
History Matches
52
0.99
Result entropy
0.88
1.80
Goal Difference Std
1.66
1.22
Stability score
11.94
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
51
Eligible Matches
52
15
Lead Matches
10
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
70.0%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.80
7
Trailing Matches
21
14.3%
Non-loss rate
19.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.46
0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.92
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.46
0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.79
Rest days
75.81
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
28
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.32
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.71
22
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.73
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.87
Competition & season17 signals
170
19
Matches
20
1.84
PPG
0.55
47.4%
Win rate
10.0%
42.1%
Draw rate
25.0%
10.5%
Loss rate
65.0%
57.9%
Over 1.5 rate
85.0%
31.6%
Over 2.5 rate
55.0%
21.1%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.88
19
Current Competition Matches
20
1.84
Current Competition PPG
0.55
0.58
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.15
4
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.20
Portability PPG Std
0.21
0.41
Portability PPG Range
0.42
70.98
Portability Score
70.59
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
51
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO176.7
PPG0.76
GF0.45
GA-0.87
PPG1.29
PPG1.26
PPG1.60
PPG1.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate23.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate27.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.45
Goals Std0.59
Scored 1+ rate9.1%
Scored 2+ rate10.3%
Scored 3+ rate7.9%
Venue Goals Mean1.03
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.89
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.87
Conceded Std-0.30
Clean-sheet rate23.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.36
Conceded 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Conceded Mean-1.13
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.72
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.11
Goal Difference Std0.14
Stability score-10.72
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.56
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.15
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches-14
Non-loss rate-0.05
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.57
Second Half Goals For Mean0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.30
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG1.29
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.73
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.00
Portability PPG Range-0.01
Portability Score0.40
Rest days0.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.61
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.86
Current Team ELO176.7
Current Opponent ELO-176.7
Current ELO Difference353.3
Expected score0.47
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.17
Overperformance11.95
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.37

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Nantong Zhiyun

L
Changchun Yatai1–0Nantong Zhiyun31 Oct · away
Pick: Nantong Zhiyun 43% · missed
W
Nantong Zhiyun1–0Shenzhen Juniors24 Oct · home
Pick: Nantong Zhiyun 47% · hit
W
Meizhou Kejia0–1Nantong Zhiyun18 Oct · away
Pick: Nantong Zhiyun 58% · hit
W
Nantong Zhiyun1–0Ningbo Professional6 Oct · home
Pick: Nantong Zhiyun 57% · hit
L
Dalian Huayi3–2Nantong Zhiyun30 Aug · away
Pick: Nantong Zhiyun 38% · missed

Dongguan United

L
Dongguan United1–4Ningbo Professional31 Oct · home
Pick: Ningbo Professional 52% · hit
L
Dongguan United2–5Nanjing City24 Oct · home
Pick: Nanjing City 45% · hit
L
Yanbian Longding5–0Dongguan United17 Oct · away
Pick: Yanbian Longding 73% · hit
W
Dongguan United1–0Guangxi Hengchen7 Oct · home
Pick: Guangxi Hengchen 65% · missed
L
Dongguan United1–2Shenzhen Juniors29 Aug · home
Pick: Shenzhen Juniors 51% · hit

About this match

Nantong Zhiyun and Dongguan United meet in League One on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 06:30 UTC. The match is played at Rugao Olympic Sports Center. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Nantong Zhiyun win 72.5%, draw 17.0%, Dongguan United win 10.5%. The pick is Nantong Zhiyun win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.9%. Both teams to score: 46.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.