Yeni Orduspor vs Sakaryaspor
Match result probability Model pick: Yeni Orduspor win
Yeni Orduspor winPick
61.3%
Draw
16.6%
Sakaryaspor win
22.1%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes54.4%
No45.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.564.5%
Under 2.535.5%
How much we know
Yeni Orduspor history54 matches
Sakaryaspor history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Yeni Orduspor
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 11:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre8 Nov · 12:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (61.3%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.
Why Yeni Orduspor are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Yeni Orduspor are rated 194 Elo points higher
Elo 1,605 against 1,411. On rating alone Yeni Orduspor would be expected to take 75% of the points on offer.
-
Yeni Orduspor score far more
2.07 goals a game over 54 matches for Yeni Orduspor, against 1.25 over 59 for Sakaryaspor.
-
Yeni Orduspor concede fewer
Yeni Orduspor concede 0.93 a game, Sakaryaspor 1.75.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
54% of Yeni Orduspor matches, against 58% for Sakaryaspor. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 18 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sakaryaspor@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1604.7
ELO
1411.1
54
ELO · Matches
59
1604.7
Current Team ELO
1411.1
1411.1
Current Opponent ELO
1604.7
193.6
Current ELO Difference
-193.6
0.75
Expected score
0.25
54
History Matches
59
0.09
Residual Mean
-0.07
56.92
Overperformance
44.99
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
0.20
2.20
Goals for per game
0.40
0.80
Goals against per game
2.80
80.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
0.90
2.30
Goals for per game
1.10
1.20
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.68
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.22
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.41
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.43
Overall performance9 signals 90
54
Matches
59
1.94
PPG
1.07
59.3%
Win rate
27.1%
16.7%
Draw rate
25.4%
24.1%
Loss rate
47.5%
75.9%
Over 1.5 rate
83.1%
53.7%
Over 2.5 rate
57.6%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
40.7%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.18
Venue performance10 signals 100
27
Matches
27
2.11
PPG
0.63
66.7%
Win rate
11.1%
11.1%
Draw rate
29.6%
22.2%
Loss rate
59.3%
81.5%
Over 1.5 rate
85.2%
55.6%
Over 2.5 rate
51.9%
40.7%
Over 3.5 rate
44.4%
2.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.04
27
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.07
Goals for per game
1.25
81.5%
Scoring rate
69.5%
48.1%
BTTS rate
52.5%
2.44
Goals for per game
1.00
81.5%
Scoring rate
63.0%
44.4%
BTTS rate
55.6%
54
History Matches
59
2.07
Goals Mean
1.25
1.69
Goals Std
1.28
81.5%
Scored 1+ rate
69.5%
55.6%
Scored 2+ rate
32.2%
35.2%
Scored 3+ rate
11.9%
2.44
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.93
Goals against per game
1.75
61.1%
Conceding rate
78.0%
0.89
Goals against per game
2.11
55.6%
Conceding rate
88.9%
54
History Matches
59
0.93
Conceded Mean
1.75
0.92
Conceded Std
1.39
25.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.5%
3.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.1%
0.89
Venue Conceded Mean
2.11
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
22.0%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
30.5%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
37.0%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
22.0%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
30.5%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
37.0%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
22.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
54
History Matches
59
0.87
Result entropy
0.96
1.92
Goal Difference Std
2.18
13.39
Stability score
3.90
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
54
Eligible Matches
59
24
Lead Matches
15
91.7%
Lead Win Rate
53.3%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.64
9
Trailing Matches
18
44.4%
Non-loss rate
11.1%
22.2%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
0.83
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
1.24
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.08
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
174.9
Rest days
190.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
39
Normal Rest History Matches
40
1.77
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.08
14
Long Rest History Matches
17
2.36
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.45
Portability PPG Std
0.23
1.27
Portability PPG Range
0.47
52.73
Portability Score
68.13
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
54
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO193.6
PPG0.88
GF0.82
GA-0.82
PPG1.48
PPG2.40
PPG1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate16.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate33.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches-5
Goals Mean0.82
Goals Std0.40
Scored 1+ rate12.0%
Scored 2+ rate23.4%
Scored 3+ rate23.3%
Venue Goals Mean1.44
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.46
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean-0.82
Conceded Std-0.47
Clean-sheet rate16.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.27
Conceded 3+ rate-0.23
Venue Conceded Mean-1.22
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.25
History Matches-5
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std-0.26
Stability score9.49
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.31
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate38.3%
Lead Points Retention0.29
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate33.3%
Trailing Win Rate22.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.49
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.21
Portability PPG Range0.80
Portability Score-15.40
Rest days-15.88
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.69
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match1.36
Current Team ELO193.6
Current Opponent ELO-193.6
Current ELO Difference387.3
Expected score0.51
History Matches-5
Residual Mean0.16
Overperformance11.92
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.20
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Yeni Orduspor
W
24 Erzincanspor0–1Yeni Orduspor1 Nov · away
Pick: Yeni Orduspor 47% · hit L
Yeni Orduspor0–21461 Trabzon FK28 Oct · home
Pick: Yeni Orduspor 60% · missed W
Yeni Orduspor5–4Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı24 Oct · home
Pick: Yeni Orduspor 43% · hit W
İskenderunspor0–2Yeni Orduspor18 Oct · away
Pick: Yeni Orduspor 41% · hit W
Kütahyaspor0–4Yeni Orduspor4 Oct · away
Pick: Yeni Orduspor 42% · hit Sakaryaspor
L
Sakaryaspor2–3Bursa Yıldırımspor28 Oct · home
Pick: Sakaryaspor 48% · missed L
Sakaryaspor1–324 Erzincanspor24 Oct · home
Pick: Sakaryaspor 49% · missed W
Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı1–2Sakaryaspor18 Oct · away
Pick: Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı 49% · missed W
Sakaryaspor2–0Arit Kayadibi6 Oct · home
Pick: Sakaryaspor 68% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Yeni Orduspor and Sakaryaspor meet in 2. Lig on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Yeni Orduspor win 61.3%, draw 16.6%, Sakaryaspor win 22.1%. The pick is Yeni Orduspor win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.5%. Both teams to score: 54.4%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.