ScoreProb
Premyer Liqa Azerbaijan Round 11 2026

Zira vs Qabala

Zira Home · Elo 1,599
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Qabala Away · Elo 1,480
Zira Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Zira win
Zira winPick
66.2%
Draw
19.0%
Qabala win
14.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.9%
No53.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.9%
Under 2.552.1%

How much we know

Zira history67 matches
Qabala history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (66.2%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Zira are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Zira are rated 118 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,599 against 1,480. On rating alone Zira would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.40 goals a game over 67 matches for Zira, against 1.36 over 56 for Qabala.

  • Zira concede fewer

    Zira concede 0.93 a game, Qabala 1.14.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    39% of Zira matches, against 45% for Qabala. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Zira
Qabala@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1598.8
ELO
1480.3
67
ELO · Matches
56
1598.8
Current Team ELO
1480.3
1480.3
Current Opponent ELO
1598.8
118.4
Current ELO Difference
-118.4
0.66
Expected score
0.34
67
History Matches
56
0.08
Residual Mean
-0.01
55.82
Overperformance
48.92
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.80
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
0.60
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.10
1.70
Goals for per game
0.90
0.90
Goals against per game
0.90
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.04
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.30
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.54
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.18
Overall performance9 signals
90
67
Matches
56
1.73
PPG
1.36
46.3%
Win rate
39.3%
34.3%
Draw rate
17.9%
19.4%
Loss rate
42.9%
68.7%
Over 1.5 rate
67.9%
38.8%
Over 2.5 rate
44.6%
22.4%
Over 3.5 rate
26.8%
1.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.95
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
27
1.83
PPG
1.07
48.6%
Win rate
29.6%
37.1%
Draw rate
18.5%
14.3%
Loss rate
51.9%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
55.6%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
37.0%
25.7%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
35
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.40
Goals for per game
1.36
80.6%
Scoring rate
62.5%
47.8%
BTTS rate
41.1%
1.46
Goals for per game
1.07
85.7%
Scoring rate
51.9%
51.4%
BTTS rate
33.3%
2.50
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
67
History Matches
56
1.40
Goals Mean
1.36
1.09
Goals Std
1.37
80.6%
Scored 1+ rate
62.5%
37.3%
Scored 2+ rate
41.1%
17.9%
Scored 3+ rate
21.4%
1.46
Venue Goals Mean
1.07
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.93
Goals against per game
1.14
56.7%
Conceding rate
73.2%
0.86
Goals against per game
1.22
54.3%
Conceding rate
74.1%
0.50
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
67
History Matches
56
0.93
Conceded Mean
1.14
0.98
Conceded Std
1.14
26.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.8%
9.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.1%
0.86
Venue Conceded Mean
1.22
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
43.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.8%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
45.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
48.1%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
43.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.8%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
45.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
48.1%
43.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
67
History Matches
56
0.95
Result entropy
0.94
1.42
Goal Difference Std
1.95
5.17
Stability score
5.53
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
56
25
Lead Matches
14
56.0%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.90
15
Trailing Matches
15
53.3%
Non-loss rate
13.3%
26.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.46
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.91
Rest days
77.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
44
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.68
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.34
22
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.77
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.32
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
3.00
PPG
0.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
8
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.34
Portability PPG Std
0.62
0.88
Portability PPG Range
1.45
59.57
Portability Score
44.62
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
67
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO118.4
PPG0.37
GF0.05
GA-0.22
PPG3.00
PPG0.75
PPG0.20
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate16.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate19.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.34
History Matches11
Goals Mean0.05
Goals Std-0.27
Scored 1+ rate18.1%
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.38
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.06
History Matches11
Conceded Mean-0.22
Conceded Std-0.16
Clean-sheet rate16.5%
Conceded 2+ rate0.1%
Conceded 3+ rate1.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.37
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.64
History Matches11
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.53
Stability score-0.36
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.35
Eligible Matches11
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate-0.30
Lead Points Retention-0.24
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate40.0%
Trailing Win Rate26.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches11
First Half Goals For Mean0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.00
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.28
Portability PPG Range-0.58
Portability Score14.95
Rest days-0.09
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches12
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.34
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.45
Current Team ELO118.4
Current Opponent ELO-118.4
Current ELO Difference236.8
Expected score0.33
History Matches11
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance6.90
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Zira

D
Araz2–2Zira31 Oct · away
Pick: Zira 60% · missed
W
Zira3–2Sumqayıt23 Oct · home
Pick: Zira 69% · hit
D
Kapaz1–1Zira18 Oct · away
Pick: Zira 68% · missed
W
Zira1–0Neftchi Baku30 Aug · home
Pick: Neftchi Baku 35% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Qabala

D
Qabala0–0Qarabag31 Oct · home
Pick: Qarabag 60% · missed
W
Qabala3–0Mingəçevir27 Oct · home
Pick: Qabala 53% · hit
W
Araz1–2Qabala23 Oct · away
Pick: Qabala 37% · hit
L
Qabala0–4Sabah FA17 Oct · home
Pick: Sabah FA 66% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Zira and Qabala meet in Premyer Liqa on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:30 UTC. The match is played at Zira Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Zira win 66.2%, draw 19.0%, Qabala win 14.9%. The pick is Zira win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.9%. Both teams to score: 46.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.