ScoreProb
3. liga - MSFL Czechia MSFL - 15 2026

Zlín II vs Frýdek-Místek

Zlín II Home · Elo 1,513
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Frýdek-Místek Away · Elo 1,606
Stadion Letna, Zlin Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Frýdek-Místek win
Zlín II win
31.6%
Draw
27.1%
Frýdek-Místek winPick
41.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.9%
No42.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.1%
Under 2.542.9%

How much we know

Zlín II history63 matches
Frýdek-Místek history71 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 0 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 09:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Frýdek-Místek are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Frýdek-Místek are rated 93 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,606 against 1,513. On rating alone Frýdek-Místek would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Frýdek-Místek score more

    1.67 goals a game over 63 matches for Zlín II, against 1.96 over 71 for Frýdek-Místek.

  • Frýdek-Místek concede fewer

    Zlín II concede 1.81 a game, Frýdek-Místek 1.24.

  • Zlín II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    70% of Zlín II matches, against 56% for Frýdek-Místek. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Zlín II
Frýdek-Místek
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1512.7
ELO
1605.8
63
ELO · Matches
71
1512.7
Current Team ELO
1605.8
1605.8
Current Opponent ELO
1512.7
-93.12
Current ELO Difference
93.12
0.37
Expected score
0.63
63
History Matches
71
0.02
Residual Mean
0.08
51.18
Overperformance
55.91
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.10
1.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
0.98
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.17
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
71
1.29
PPG
1.89
34.9%
Win rate
54.9%
23.8%
Draw rate
23.9%
41.3%
Loss rate
21.1%
87.3%
Over 1.5 rate
78.9%
69.8%
Over 2.5 rate
56.3%
41.3%
Over 3.5 rate
36.6%
2.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.27
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
34
1.91
PPG
1.59
54.5%
Win rate
44.1%
27.3%
Draw rate
26.5%
18.2%
Loss rate
29.4%
87.9%
Over 1.5 rate
85.3%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
67.6%
39.4%
Over 3.5 rate
41.2%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.18
33
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.67
Goals for per game
1.96
77.8%
Scoring rate
88.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
52.1%
2.12
Goals for per game
1.94
87.9%
Scoring rate
91.2%
72.7%
BTTS rate
67.6%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.75
75.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
63
History Matches
71
1.67
Goals Mean
1.96
1.51
Goals Std
1.60
77.8%
Scored 1+ rate
88.7%
46.0%
Scored 2+ rate
52.1%
20.6%
Scored 3+ rate
25.4%
2.12
Venue Goals Mean
1.94
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.81
Goals against per game
1.24
85.7%
Conceding rate
60.6%
1.36
Goals against per game
1.65
78.8%
Conceding rate
73.5%
0.75
Goals against per game
1.25
75.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
63
History Matches
71
1.81
Conceded Mean
1.24
1.31
Conceded Std
1.47
54.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.2%
25.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.7%
1.36
Venue Conceded Mean
1.65
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
39.4%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
11.3%
21.2%
Clean-sheet rate
26.5%
12.1%
Failed-to-score rate
8.8%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
39.4%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
11.3%
21.2%
Clean-sheet rate
26.5%
12.1%
Failed-to-score rate
8.8%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
39.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
71
0.98
Result entropy
0.91
2.11
Goal Difference Std
2.27
2.21
Stability score
8.99
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
62
Eligible Matches
69
19
Lead Matches
35
68.4%
Lead Win Rate
77.1%
0.72
Lead Points Retention
0.84
22
Trailing Matches
12
31.8%
Non-loss rate
58.3%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
69
0.84
First Half Goals For Mean
0.90
0.84
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.84
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.09
0.97
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
7
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.57
32
Normal Rest History Matches
40
1.03
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.88
27
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.63
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.65
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.75
PPG
1.75
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.12
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.75
Current Competition PPG
1.75
0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
5
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.37
Portability PPG Std
0.46
0.92
Portability PPG Range
1.26
57.51
Portability Score
51.84
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
71
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-93.12
PPG-0.60
GF-0.29
GA0.57
PPG0.00
PPG0.32
PPG-0.20
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate-0.25
Failed-to-score rate11.0%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate3.3%
History Matches-8
Goals Mean-0.29
Goals Std-0.09
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.18
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.21
History Matches-8
Conceded Mean0.57
Conceded Std-0.16
Clean-sheet rate-0.25
Conceded 2+ rate18.8%
Conceded 3+ rate12.7%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.28
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.15
History Matches-8
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.16
Stability score-6.78
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.19
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches-16
Lead Win Rate-0.09
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate-0.27
Trailing Win Rate0.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.24
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.25
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.10
Portability PPG Range-0.35
Portability Score5.67
Rest days-0.75
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.24
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.84
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.02
Current Team ELO-93.12
Current Opponent ELO93.12
Current ELO Difference-186.2
Expected score-0.26
History Matches-8
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.73
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.23

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Zlín II

D
Unie Hlubina2–2Zlín II31 Oct · away
Pick: Unie Hlubina 62% · missed
W
Zlín II2–0Vsetín25 Oct · home
Pick: Zlín II 54% · hit
L
Zbrojovka Brno II4–2Zlín II18 Oct · away
Pick: Zlín II 43% · missed
W
Karviná II0–1Zlín II4 Oct · away
Pick: Karviná II 48% · missed
D
Slovácko II1–1Zlín II30 Aug · away
Pick: Slovácko II 53% · missed

Frýdek-Místek

W
Frýdek-Místek3–0Líšeň II31 Oct · home
Pick: Frýdek-Místek 39% · hit
W
Blansko0–3Frýdek-Místek24 Oct · away
Pick: Frýdek-Místek 57% · hit
W
Frýdek-Místek2–1Slovácko II17 Oct · home
Pick: Frýdek-Místek 49% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Zlín II and Frýdek-Místek meet in 3. liga - MSFL on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 09:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Letna, Zlin. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Zlín II win 31.6%, draw 27.1%, Frýdek-Místek win 41.3%. The pick is Frýdek-Místek win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.1%. Both teams to score: 57.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.