ScoreProb
3. liga - MSFL Czechia MSFL - 15 2026

Karviná II vs Vsetín

Karviná II Home · Elo 1,464
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Vsetín Away · Elo 1,487
Stadion Kovona, Karvina Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Karviná II win
Karviná II winPick
52.2%
Draw
18.9%
Vsetín win
28.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.7%
No43.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.566.9%
Under 2.533.1%

How much we know

Karviná II history65 matches
Vsetín history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 0 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 09:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Karviná II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,464 against 1,487. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.63 goals a game over 65 matches for Karviná II, against 1.75 over 64 for Vsetín.

  • Vsetín concede fewer

    Karviná II concede 1.85 a game, Vsetín 1.58.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    63% of Karviná II matches, against 67% for Vsetín. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Karviná II
Vsetín
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1463.7
ELO
1487.0
65
ELO · Matches
64
1463.7
Current Team ELO
1487.0
1487.0
Current Opponent ELO
1463.7
-23.34
Current ELO Difference
23.34
0.47
Expected score
0.53
65
History Matches
64
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.02
48.25
Overperformance
48.24
0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.24
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.60
1.80
Goals for per game
1.80
1.60
Goals against per game
2.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
0.70
1.40
Goals for per game
1.30
1.30
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.73
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.34
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.45
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.41
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
64
1.18
PPG
1.52
32.3%
Win rate
45.3%
21.5%
Draw rate
15.6%
46.2%
Loss rate
39.1%
86.2%
Over 1.5 rate
85.9%
63.1%
Over 2.5 rate
67.2%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.6%
2.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.48
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
36
1.18
PPG
1.44
29.4%
Win rate
41.7%
29.4%
Draw rate
19.4%
41.2%
Loss rate
38.9%
88.2%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
58.8%
Over 2.5 rate
58.3%
38.2%
Over 3.5 rate
30.6%
2.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.33
34
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.63
Goals for per game
1.75
73.8%
Scoring rate
73.4%
58.5%
BTTS rate
56.3%
1.71
Goals for per game
1.56
76.5%
Scoring rate
63.9%
55.9%
BTTS rate
47.2%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.75
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
65
History Matches
64
1.63
Goals Mean
1.75
1.49
Goals Std
1.62
73.8%
Scored 1+ rate
73.4%
47.7%
Scored 2+ rate
51.6%
21.5%
Scored 3+ rate
26.6%
1.71
Venue Goals Mean
1.56
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.85
Goals against per game
1.58
81.5%
Conceding rate
81.3%
1.65
Goals against per game
1.44
79.4%
Conceding rate
80.6%
1.50
Goals against per game
3.25
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
65
History Matches
64
1.85
Conceded Mean
1.58
1.45
Conceded Std
1.36
58.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.5%
27.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.4%
1.65
Venue Conceded Mean
1.44
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
26.2%
Failed-to-score rate
26.6%
20.6%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
36.1%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
26.2%
Failed-to-score rate
26.6%
20.6%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
36.1%
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
64
0.96
Result entropy
0.92
2.12
Goal Difference Std
2.48
4.19
Stability score
7.53
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
63
Eligible Matches
63
16
Lead Matches
20
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.83
21
Trailing Matches
18
9.5%
Non-loss rate
5.6%
9.5%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
63
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.76
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
1.02
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.97
1.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.89
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.89
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
4
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.25
35
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.17
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.64
26
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.04
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.75
PPG
0.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.75
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.50
5
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.45
Portability PPG Std
0.93
1.08
Portability PPG Range
2.71
52.78
Portability Score
34.99
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-23.34
PPG-0.33
GF-0.12
GA0.27
PPG1.75
PPG-0.27
PPG0.80
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Failed-to-score rate0.00
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate1.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.12
Goals Std-0.13
Scored 1+ rate0.4%
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.15
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.93
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.27
Conceded Std0.09
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Conceded 2+ rate21.0%
Conceded 3+ rate4.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.24
History Matches1
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.36
Stability score-3.34
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.96
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate4.0%
Trailing Win Rate4.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.48
Portability PPG Range-1.63
Portability Score17.79
Rest days-0.84
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.75
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.46
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.46
Current Team ELO-23.34
Current Opponent ELO23.34
Current ELO Difference-46.68
Expected score-0.07
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.41

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Karviná II

W
Zbrojovka Brno II1–3Karviná II1 Nov · away
Pick: Karviná II 43% · hit
W
Karviná II2–0Hranice25 Oct · home
Pick: Karviná II 45% · hit
L
Sigma Olomouc II3–1Karviná II18 Oct · away
Pick: Sigma Olomouc II 57% · hit
L
Karviná II0–1Zlín II4 Oct · home
Pick: Karviná II 48% · missed
L
Vrchovina1–0Karviná II29 Aug · away
Pick: Vrchovina 46% · hit

Vsetín

L
Vsetín1–4Vítkovice31 Oct · home
Pick: Vítkovice 46% · hit
L
Zlín II2–0Vsetín25 Oct · away
Pick: Zlín II 54% · hit
L
Vsetín0–1Líšeň II17 Oct · home
Pick: Líšeň II 64% · hit
L
Uherský Brod2–1Vsetín29 Aug · away
Pick: Uherský Brod 71% · hit
W
Vsetín2–1Hanácká26 Aug · home
Pick: Vsetín 41% · hit

About this match

Karviná II and Vsetín meet in 3. liga - MSFL on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 09:15 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Kovona, Karvina. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Karviná II win 52.2%, draw 18.9%, Vsetín win 28.9%. The pick is Karviná II win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.9%. Both teams to score: 56.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.