ScoreProb
Primera División Chile Round 27 2026

A. Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido

A. Italiano Home · Elo 1,522
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Coquimbo Unido Away · Elo 1,612
Estadio Bicentenario de La Florida, Santiago de Chile Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Coquimbo Unido win
A. Italiano win
32.0%
Draw
25.7%
Coquimbo Unido winPick
42.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.0%
No49.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.7%
Under 2.551.3%

How much we know

A. Italiano history67 matches
Coquimbo Unido history78 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Coquimbo Unido are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Coquimbo Unido are rated 90 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,612 against 1,522. On rating alone Coquimbo Unido would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.42 goals a game over 67 matches for A. Italiano, against 1.44 over 78 for Coquimbo Unido.

  • Coquimbo Unido concede fewer

    A. Italiano concede 1.30 a game, Coquimbo Unido 0.82.

  • A. Italiano games more often go over 2.5 goals

    54% of A. Italiano matches, against 42% for Coquimbo Unido. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
A. Italiano
Coquimbo Unido
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1522.2
ELO
1611.8
67
ELO · Matches
78
1522.2
Current Team ELO
1611.8
1611.8
Current Opponent ELO
1522.2
-89.54
Current ELO Difference
89.54
0.37
Expected score
0.63
67
History Matches
78
0.01
Residual Mean
0.07
50.88
Overperformance
55.20
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.20
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.40
1.00
Goals for per game
0.80
1.00
Goals against per game
0.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
0.80
1.10
Goals against per game
0.80
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.40
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.60
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
0.78
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.63
Overall performance9 signals
90
67
Matches
78
1.55
PPG
1.94
43.3%
Win rate
55.1%
25.4%
Draw rate
28.2%
31.3%
Loss rate
16.7%
74.6%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
53.7%
Over 2.5 rate
42.3%
26.9%
Over 3.5 rate
15.4%
1.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.31
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
40
1.66
PPG
1.83
46.9%
Win rate
52.5%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
28.1%
Loss rate
22.5%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
67.5%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
37.5%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
15.0%
1.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.43
32
History Matches
40
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.42
Goals for per game
1.44
82.1%
Scoring rate
79.5%
62.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.47
Goals for per game
1.33
84.4%
Scoring rate
80.0%
62.5%
BTTS rate
47.5%
0.94
Goals for per game
1.39
58.8%
Scoring rate
77.8%
47.1%
BTTS rate
66.7%
67
History Matches
78
1.42
Goals Mean
1.44
1.01
Goals Std
1.10
82.1%
Scored 1+ rate
79.5%
43.3%
Scored 2+ rate
41.0%
11.9%
Scored 3+ rate
17.9%
1.47
Venue Goals Mean
1.33
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.30
Goals against per game
0.82
73.1%
Conceding rate
60.3%
1.19
Goals against per game
0.90
75.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
1.41
Goals against per game
1.22
70.6%
Conceding rate
83.3%
67
History Matches
78
1.30
Conceded Mean
0.82
1.08
Conceded Std
0.83
38.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
16.7%
14.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.1%
1.19
Venue Conceded Mean
0.90
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
39.7%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
20.5%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
15.6%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
41.2%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
39.7%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
20.5%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
15.6%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
39.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
67
History Matches
78
0.98
Result entropy
0.90
1.26
Goal Difference Std
1.31
2.23
Stability score
10.44
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
78
20
Lead Matches
26
65.0%
Lead Win Rate
80.8%
0.72
Lead Points Retention
0.87
21
Trailing Matches
14
28.6%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
21.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
78
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
0.84
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.90
0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.85
Rest days
77.21
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
6
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.17
41
Normal Rest History Matches
48
1.49
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.13
23
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.61
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.78
Competition & season17 signals
170
17
Matches
18
0.94
PPG
1.44
17.6%
Win rate
38.9%
41.2%
Draw rate
27.8%
41.2%
Loss rate
33.3%
58.8%
Over 1.5 rate
72.2%
47.1%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
23.5%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.34
17
Current Competition Matches
18
0.94
Current Competition PPG
1.44
-0.47
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.17
6
Competition Season Count
8
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.46
Portability PPG Std
0.39
1.24
Portability PPG Range
1.07
52.00
Portability Score
56.10
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
67
Clean History Matches
78
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-89.54
PPG-0.38
GF-0.02
GA0.48
PPG-0.50
PPG-0.17
PPG-0.20
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-11
Goals Mean-0.02
Goals Std-0.10
Scored 1+ rate2.6%
Scored 2+ rate2.3%
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean0.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.40
History Matches-11
Conceded Mean0.48
Conceded Std0.25
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Conceded 2+ rate22.1%
Conceded 3+ rate9.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.23
History Matches-11
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.05
Stability score-8.21
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.15
Eligible Matches-11
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate-0.16
Lead Points Retention-0.16
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate-0.21
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches-11
First Half Goals For Mean0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.64
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.07
Portability PPG Range0.17
Portability Score-4.10
Rest days1.65
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match0.33
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.64
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Current Team ELO-89.54
Current Opponent ELO89.54
Current ELO Difference-179.1
Expected score-0.25
History Matches-11
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-4.32
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.32

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

A. Italiano

L
Deportes Limache2–0A. Italiano2 Nov · away
Pick: Deportes Limache 46% · hit
D
A. Italiano1–1Huachipato23 Oct · home
Pick: A. Italiano 44% · missed
L
Colo Colo5–1A. Italiano30 Aug · away
Pick: Colo Colo 58% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Coquimbo Unido

W
Coquimbo Unido1–0Union La Calera30 Oct · home
Pick: Coquimbo Unido 61% · hit
L
Nublense2–1Coquimbo Unido25 Oct · away
Pick: Nublense 37% · hit
W
Coquimbo Unido2–1Cobreloa7 Oct · home
Pick: Coquimbo Unido 58% · hit
L
Coquimbo Unido1–2U. Catolica26 Aug · home
Pick: Coquimbo Unido 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

A. Italiano and Coquimbo Unido meet in Primera División on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Bicentenario de La Florida, Santiago de Chile. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: A. Italiano win 32.0%, draw 25.7%, Coquimbo Unido win 42.3%. The pick is Coquimbo Unido win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.7%. Both teams to score: 51.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.