ScoreProb
Primera División Chile Round 27 2026

Nublense vs Colo Colo

Nublense Home · Elo 1,584
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Colo Colo Away · Elo 1,617
Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas, Chillan Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Colo Colo win
Nublense win
30.0%
Draw
26.0%
Colo Colo winPick
44.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.2%
No47.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.2%
Under 2.551.8%

How much we know

Nublense history53 matches
Colo Colo history68 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Colo Colo are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Colo Colo are rated 33 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,617 against 1,584. On rating alone Colo Colo would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.34 goals a game over 53 matches for Nublense, against 1.47 over 68 for Colo Colo.

  • Nublense concede fewer

    Nublense concede 1.13 a game, Colo Colo 1.28.

  • Colo Colo games more often go over 2.5 goals

    40% of Nublense matches, against 54% for Colo Colo. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Nublense
Colo Colo
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1584.4
ELO
1617.4
53
ELO · Matches
68
1584.4
Current Team ELO
1617.4
1617.4
Current Opponent ELO
1584.4
-33.01
Current ELO Difference
33.01
0.45
Expected score
0.55
53
History Matches
68
0.09
Residual Mean
0.08
56.41
Overperformance
55.85
0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.19
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
2.60
1.80
Goals for per game
2.60
0.80
Goals against per game
1.60
80.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
2.30
1.50
Goals for per game
2.30
0.80
Goals against per game
1.60
70.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
0.67
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
0.78
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.49
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
68
1.64
PPG
1.63
45.3%
Win rate
47.1%
28.3%
Draw rate
22.1%
26.4%
Loss rate
30.9%
67.9%
Over 1.5 rate
69.1%
39.6%
Over 2.5 rate
54.4%
22.6%
Over 3.5 rate
32.4%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
38
1.97
PPG
1.50
55.2%
Win rate
44.7%
31.0%
Draw rate
15.8%
13.8%
Loss rate
39.5%
69.0%
Over 1.5 rate
65.8%
41.4%
Over 2.5 rate
55.3%
31.0%
Over 3.5 rate
26.3%
1.29
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
29
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.34
Goals for per game
1.47
81.1%
Scoring rate
76.5%
49.1%
BTTS rate
51.5%
1.62
Goals for per game
1.26
86.2%
Scoring rate
73.7%
48.3%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.43
Goals for per game
2.24
92.9%
Scoring rate
94.1%
57.1%
BTTS rate
64.7%
53
History Matches
68
1.34
Goals Mean
1.47
1.01
Goals Std
1.28
81.1%
Scored 1+ rate
76.5%
39.6%
Scored 2+ rate
39.7%
7.5%
Scored 3+ rate
20.6%
1.62
Venue Goals Mean
1.26
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.13
Goals against per game
1.28
66.0%
Conceding rate
70.6%
0.93
Goals against per game
1.42
58.6%
Conceding rate
73.7%
1.29
Goals against per game
1.12
64.3%
Conceding rate
70.6%
53
History Matches
68
1.13
Conceded Mean
1.28
1.13
Conceded Std
1.17
34.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.3%
7.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.7%
0.93
Venue Conceded Mean
1.42
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
34.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
18.9%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
41.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
7.1%
Failed-to-score rate
5.9%
34.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
18.9%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
41.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
34.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
68
0.97
Result entropy
0.96
1.47
Goal Difference Std
1.77
2.82
Stability score
4.33
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
68
15
Lead Matches
23
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
73.9%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.83
13
Trailing Matches
18
38.5%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
68
0.55
First Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.66
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.88
Rest days
77.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
23
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.65
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.78
26
Long Rest History Matches
28
1.54
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.54
Competition & season17 signals
170
14
Matches
17
1.86
PPG
2.53
50.0%
Win rate
82.4%
35.7%
Draw rate
5.9%
14.3%
Loss rate
11.8%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
70.6%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
70.6%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
41.2%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.32
14
Current Competition Matches
17
1.86
Current Competition PPG
2.53
0.14
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.12
6
Competition Season Count
10
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.35
Portability PPG Std
0.55
0.90
Portability PPG Range
1.53
58.82
Portability Score
47.69
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
68
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-33.01
PPG0.01
GF-0.13
GA-0.15
PPG-0.67
PPG0.47
PPG0.00
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-15
Clean-sheet rate4.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate15.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches-15
Goals Mean-0.13
Goals Std-0.27
Scored 1+ rate4.7%
Scored 2+ rate0.00
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean0.36
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.23
History Matches-15
Conceded Mean-0.15
Conceded Std-0.04
Clean-sheet rate4.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.49
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.45
History Matches-15
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.30
Stability score-1.52
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.71
Eligible Matches-15
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate6.1%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate5.1%
Trailing Win Rate-0.03
Halftime Coverage Matches-15
First Half Goals For Mean-0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Current Competition Matches-3
Current Competition PPG-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.97
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.20
Portability PPG Range-0.63
Portability Score11.14
Rest days0.79
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.67
Normal Rest History Matches-13
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.13
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.00
Current Team ELO-33.01
Current Opponent ELO33.01
Current ELO Difference-66.02
Expected score-0.09
History Matches-15
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.56
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Nublense

W
Nublense2–1Coquimbo Unido25 Oct · home
Pick: Nublense 37% · hit
L
Universidad de Chile6–0Nublense12 Oct · away
Pick: Universidad de Chile 54% · hit
L
Nublense0–1Concepción30 Aug · home
Pick: Nublense 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Colo Colo

W
Colo Colo6–1Universidad de Concepcion30 Oct · home
Pick: Colo Colo 72% · hit
D
Palestino1–1Colo Colo25 Oct · away
Pick: Colo Colo 45% · missed
W
Colo Colo5–1A. Italiano30 Aug · home
Pick: Colo Colo 58% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Nublense and Colo Colo meet in Primera División on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas, Chillan. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Nublense win 30.0%, draw 26.0%, Colo Colo win 44.1%. The pick is Colo Colo win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.2%. Both teams to score: 52.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.