ScoreProb
Primera División Chile Round 27 2026

Universidad de Chile vs Cobresal

Universidad de Chile Home · Elo 1,589
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Cobresal Away · Elo 1,437
Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos, Santiago de Chile Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Universidad de Chile win
Universidad de Chile winPick
67.2%
Draw
17.8%
Cobresal win
15.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.4%
No44.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.7%
Under 2.539.3%

How much we know

Universidad de Chile history73 matches
Cobresal history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (67.2%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Universidad de Chile are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Universidad de Chile are rated 152 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,589 against 1,437. On rating alone Universidad de Chile would be expected to take 71% of the points on offer.

  • Universidad de Chile score more

    1.73 goals a game over 73 matches for Universidad de Chile, against 1.19 over 57 for Cobresal.

  • Universidad de Chile concede fewer

    Universidad de Chile concede 1.03 a game, Cobresal 1.53.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    58% of Universidad de Chile matches, against 51% for Cobresal. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Universidad de Chile
Cobresal
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1589.0
ELO
1437.2
73
ELO · Matches
57
1589.0
Current Team ELO
1437.2
1437.2
Current Opponent ELO
1589.0
151.8
Current ELO Difference
-151.8
0.71
Expected score
0.29
73
History Matches
57
0.05
Residual Mean
-0.05
53.96
Overperformance
46.38
0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.00
1.80
Goals for per game
2.00
0.80
Goals against per game
2.00
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
0.70
1.90
Goals for per game
1.20
1.10
Goals against per game
1.50
70.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.54
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
73
Matches
57
1.75
PPG
1.18
52.1%
Win rate
31.6%
19.2%
Draw rate
22.8%
28.8%
Loss rate
45.6%
69.9%
Over 1.5 rate
71.9%
57.5%
Over 2.5 rate
50.9%
34.2%
Over 3.5 rate
29.8%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
27
2.09
PPG
0.85
63.6%
Win rate
18.5%
18.2%
Draw rate
29.6%
18.2%
Loss rate
51.9%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
51.9%
39.4%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
33
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.73
Goals for per game
1.19
75.3%
Scoring rate
68.4%
47.9%
BTTS rate
50.9%
2.12
Goals for per game
1.00
87.9%
Scoring rate
63.0%
51.5%
BTTS rate
51.9%
1.39
Goals for per game
1.24
72.2%
Scoring rate
64.7%
44.4%
BTTS rate
47.1%
73
History Matches
57
1.73
Goals Mean
1.19
1.45
Goals Std
1.08
75.3%
Scored 1+ rate
68.4%
52.1%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
27.4%
Scored 3+ rate
15.8%
2.12
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.03
Goals against per game
1.53
67.1%
Conceding rate
77.2%
0.97
Goals against per game
1.89
60.6%
Conceding rate
81.5%
0.78
Goals against per game
1.94
55.6%
Conceding rate
82.4%
73
History Matches
57
1.03
Conceded Mean
1.53
0.91
Conceded Std
1.30
28.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.9%
6.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.3%
0.97
Venue Conceded Mean
1.89
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.9%
Clean-sheet rate
22.8%
24.7%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
39.4%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
12.1%
Failed-to-score rate
37.0%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
32.9%
Clean-sheet rate
22.8%
24.7%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
39.4%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
12.1%
Failed-to-score rate
37.0%
32.9%
Clean-sheet rate
22.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
73
History Matches
57
0.92
Result entropy
0.96
1.80
Goal Difference Std
1.72
7.61
Stability score
3.59
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
73
Eligible Matches
57
27
Lead Matches
18
88.9%
Lead Win Rate
72.2%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.78
14
Trailing Matches
18
50.0%
Non-loss rate
11.1%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
73
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.74
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
0.99
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.08
Rest days
77.21
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
39
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.92
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.07
27
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.56
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.35
Competition & season17 signals
170
18
Matches
17
1.78
PPG
0.71
50.0%
Win rate
17.6%
27.8%
Draw rate
17.6%
22.2%
Loss rate
64.7%
61.1%
Over 1.5 rate
70.6%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
52.9%
22.2%
Over 3.5 rate
41.2%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
18
Current Competition Matches
17
1.78
Current Competition PPG
0.71
0.61
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.71
10
Competition Season Count
7
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.29
Portability PPG Std
0.48
0.92
Portability PPG Range
1.45
62.95
Portability Score
50.83
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
73
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO151.8
PPG0.58
GF0.53
GA-0.50
PPG1.07
PPG1.24
PPG1.40
PPG1.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches16
Clean-sheet rate10.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate20.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches16
Goals Mean0.53
Goals Std0.36
Scored 1+ rate6.9%
Scored 2+ rate18.7%
Scored 3+ rate11.6%
Venue Goals Mean1.12
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.59
History Matches16
Conceded Mean-0.50
Conceded Std-0.39
Clean-sheet rate10.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.15
Conceded 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Conceded Mean-0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.08
History Matches16
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.08
Stability score4.02
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.54
Eligible Matches16
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate16.7%
Lead Points Retention0.14
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate38.9%
Trailing Win Rate14.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches16
First Half Goals For Mean0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean0.34
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.37
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG1.07
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.32
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.19
Portability PPG Range-0.53
Portability Score12.11
Rest days-0.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest History Matches9
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.86
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.21
Current Team ELO151.8
Current Opponent ELO-151.8
Current ELO Difference303.5
Expected score0.41
History Matches16
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance7.58
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.26

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Universidad de Chile

W
Universidad de Chile4–1Everton de Vina26 Oct · home
Pick: Universidad de Chile 56% · hit
W
Universidad de Chile6–0Nublense12 Oct · home
Pick: Universidad de Chile 54% · hit
L
Antofagasta2–0Universidad de Chile7 Oct · away
Pick: Universidad de Chile 37% · missed
L
Universidad de Concepcion2–1Universidad de Chile30 Aug · away
Pick: Universidad de Chile 53% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Cobresal

D
O'Higgins1–1Cobresal24 Oct · away
Pick: O'Higgins 52% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Universidad de Chile and Cobresal meet in Primera División on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos, Santiago de Chile. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Universidad de Chile win 67.2%, draw 17.8%, Cobresal win 15.0%. The pick is Universidad de Chile win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.7%. Both teams to score: 55.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.