ScoreProb
Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Spain Group 5 - 10 2026

A Madrid III vs Atlético Tordesillas

A Madrid III Home · Elo 1,576
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Atlético Tordesillas Away · Elo 1,633
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Atlético Tordesillas win
A Madrid III win
26.0%
Draw
21.3%
Atlético Tordesillas winPick
52.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.0%
No46.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.0%
Under 2.542.0%

How much we know

A Madrid III history31 matches
Atlético Tordesillas history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.7%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Atlético Tordesillas are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Atlético Tordesillas are rated 57 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,633 against 1,576. On rating alone Atlético Tordesillas would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • A Madrid III score far more

    2.42 goals a game over 31 matches for A Madrid III, against 1.56 over 59 for Atlético Tordesillas.

  • Atlético Tordesillas concede fewer

    A Madrid III concede 1.39 a game, Atlético Tordesillas 0.78.

  • A Madrid III games more often go over 2.5 goals

    68% of A Madrid III matches, against 42% for Atlético Tordesillas. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
A Madrid III
Atlético Tordesillas
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1575.9
ELO
1632.8
31
ELO · Matches
59
1575.9
Current Team ELO
1632.8
1632.8
Current Opponent ELO
1575.9
-56.93
Current ELO Difference
56.93
0.42
Expected score
0.58
31
History Matches
59
0.12
Residual Mean
0.11
57.13
Overperformance
58.42
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.60
2.40
Goals for per game
0.60
1.60
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.50
2.10
Goals for per game
1.30
1.50
Goals against per game
1.30
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.11
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.00
Overall performance9 signals
90
31
Matches
59
1.87
PPG
2.08
51.6%
Win rate
61.0%
32.3%
Draw rate
25.4%
16.1%
Loss rate
13.6%
83.9%
Over 1.5 rate
69.5%
67.7%
Over 2.5 rate
42.4%
51.6%
Over 3.5 rate
23.7%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
Venue performance10 signals
100
15
Matches
28
1.80
PPG
1.96
46.7%
Win rate
57.1%
40.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
13.3%
Loss rate
17.9%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
53.3%
Over 2.5 rate
46.4%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
15
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.42
Goals for per game
1.56
90.3%
Scoring rate
83.1%
80.6%
BTTS rate
45.8%
1.93
Goals for per game
1.54
80.0%
Scoring rate
85.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
46.4%
31
History Matches
59
2.42
Goals Mean
1.56
1.83
Goals Std
1.15
90.3%
Scored 1+ rate
83.1%
64.5%
Scored 2+ rate
44.1%
38.7%
Scored 3+ rate
20.3%
1.93
Venue Goals Mean
1.54
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.39
Goals against per game
0.78
83.9%
Conceding rate
52.5%
1.07
Goals against per game
0.96
73.3%
Conceding rate
53.6%
31
History Matches
59
1.39
Conceded Mean
0.78
0.97
Conceded Std
0.96
38.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
15.3%
12.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.5%
1.07
Venue Conceded Mean
0.96
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
16.1%
Clean-sheet rate
47.5%
9.7%
Failed-to-score rate
16.9%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
46.4%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
16.1%
Clean-sheet rate
47.5%
9.7%
Failed-to-score rate
16.9%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
46.4%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
16.1%
Clean-sheet rate
47.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
31
History Matches
59
0.91
Result entropy
0.84
1.82
Goal Difference Std
1.56
8.92
Stability score
16.21
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
30
Eligible Matches
59
11
Lead Matches
20
81.8%
Lead Win Rate
95.0%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.97
8
Trailing Matches
13
62.5%
Non-loss rate
46.2%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
15.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
30
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
0.97
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
1.43
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.07
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.37
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
182.3
Rest days
78.25
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
16
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.81
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.28
14
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.86
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.76
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
5
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
—
Portability PPG Std
0.65
—
Portability PPG Range
1.58
—
Portability Score
43.32
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
31
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-56.93
PPG-0.21
GF0.86
GA0.61
PPG-0.16
PPG1.00
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-28
Clean-sheet rate-0.31
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-13
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Failed-to-score rate5.7%
History Matches-28
Goals Mean0.86
Goals Std0.67
Scored 1+ rate7.3%
Scored 2+ rate20.4%
Scored 3+ rate18.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.20
History Matches-28
Conceded Mean0.61
Conceded Std0.02
Clean-sheet rate-0.31
Conceded 2+ rate23.5%
Conceded 3+ rate4.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.08
History Matches-28
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std0.26
Stability score-7.29
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.89
Eligible Matches-29
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate16.3%
Trailing Win Rate9.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches-29
First Half Goals For Mean0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean0.29
Second Half Goals For Mean0.37
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.29
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Rest days104.0
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-20
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.47
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.10
Current Team ELO-56.93
Current Opponent ELO56.93
Current ELO Difference-113.9
Expected score-0.16
History Matches-28
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-1.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

A Madrid III

W
A Madrid III1–0CF Talavera31 Oct · home
Pick: CF Talavera 47% · missed
L
Albacete II2–1A Madrid III25 Oct · away
Pick: Albacete II 63% · hit
D
A Madrid III1–1Gimnástica Segoviana17 Oct · home
Pick: Gimnástica Segoviana 47% · missed
W
A Madrid III3–2Conquense4 Oct · home
Pick: Conquense 48% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Atlético Tordesillas

L
Atlético Tordesillas1–2Numancia1 Nov · home
Pick: Atlético Tordesillas 40% · missed
D
Gimnástica Segoviana1–1Atlético Tordesillas24 Oct · away
Pick: Atlético Tordesillas 41% · missed
W
Atlético Tordesillas3–0Guadalajara18 Oct · home
Pick: Atlético Tordesillas 59% · hit
W
Atlético Tordesillas2–0Salamanca UDS4 Oct · home
Pick: Atlético Tordesillas 66% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

A Madrid III and Atlético Tordesillas meet in Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: A Madrid III win 26.0%, draw 21.3%, Atlético Tordesillas win 52.7%. The pick is Atlético Tordesillas win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.0%. Both teams to score: 54.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.