ScoreProb
Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Spain Group 5 - 10 2026

Numancia vs Calvo Sotelo

Numancia Home · Elo 1,531
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Calvo Sotelo Away · Elo 1,642
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Numancia win
Numancia winPick
51.4%
Draw
24.3%
Calvo Sotelo win
24.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.8%
No51.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.542.1%
Under 2.557.9%

How much we know

Numancia history61 matches
Calvo Sotelo history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Numancia are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Calvo Sotelo are rated 111 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,642 against 1,531. On rating alone Calvo Sotelo would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Calvo Sotelo score more

    1.33 goals a game over 61 matches for Numancia, against 1.50 over 50 for Calvo Sotelo.

  • Calvo Sotelo concede fewer

    Numancia concede 0.98 a game, Calvo Sotelo 0.68.

  • Numancia games more often go over 2.5 goals

    49% of Numancia matches, against 32% for Calvo Sotelo. The model puts this match at 42% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Numancia
Calvo Sotelo
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1531.1
ELO
1641.7
61
ELO · Matches
50
1531.1
Current Team ELO
1641.7
1641.7
Current Opponent ELO
1531.1
-110.6
Current ELO Difference
110.6
0.35
Expected score
0.65
61
History Matches
50
0.03
Residual Mean
0.14
52.50
Overperformance
60.12
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.40
1.00
Goals for per game
1.80
1.00
Goals against per game
0.40
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
2.30
1.30
Goals for per game
1.80
0.90
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.66
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.11
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.33
Overall performance9 signals
90
61
Matches
50
1.48
PPG
2.00
41.0%
Win rate
56.0%
24.6%
Draw rate
32.0%
34.4%
Loss rate
12.0%
65.6%
Over 1.5 rate
72.0%
49.2%
Over 2.5 rate
32.0%
18.0%
Over 3.5 rate
18.0%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.19
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
24
1.67
PPG
1.75
51.5%
Win rate
45.8%
12.1%
Draw rate
37.5%
36.4%
Loss rate
16.7%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
79.2%
57.6%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
21.2%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.12
33
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.33
Goals for per game
1.50
72.1%
Scoring rate
84.0%
49.2%
BTTS rate
42.0%
1.48
Goals for per game
1.38
75.8%
Scoring rate
83.3%
48.5%
BTTS rate
54.2%
61
History Matches
50
1.33
Goals Mean
1.50
1.10
Goals Std
0.96
72.1%
Scored 1+ rate
84.0%
41.0%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
18.0%
Scored 3+ rate
14.0%
1.48
Venue Goals Mean
1.38
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.98
Goals against per game
0.68
63.9%
Conceding rate
48.0%
1.03
Goals against per game
0.88
66.7%
Conceding rate
62.5%
61
History Matches
50
0.98
Conceded Mean
0.68
1.00
Conceded Std
0.81
23.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
18.0%
8.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
2.0%
1.03
Venue Conceded Mean
0.88
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
36.1%
Clean-sheet rate
52.0%
27.9%
Failed-to-score rate
16.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
24.2%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
36.1%
Clean-sheet rate
52.0%
27.9%
Failed-to-score rate
16.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
24.2%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
36.1%
Clean-sheet rate
52.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
61
History Matches
50
0.98
Result entropy
0.86
1.45
Goal Difference Std
1.19
1.91
Stability score
14.10
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
50
19
Lead Matches
18
84.2%
Lead Win Rate
88.9%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.91
13
Trailing Matches
5
15.4%
Non-loss rate
80.0%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
50
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.26
0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.52
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.71
Rest days
181.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
40
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.97
20
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.35
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.10
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
7
Competition Season Count
3
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.69
Portability PPG Std
0.40
1.80
Portability PPG Range
0.80
41.92
Portability Score
55.40
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
61
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-110.6
PPG-0.52
GF-0.17
GA0.30
PPG-0.08
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate11.9%
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate7.6%
History Matches11
Goals Mean-0.17
Goals Std0.13
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate4.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.11
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.08
History Matches11
Conceded Mean0.30
Conceded Std0.19
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Conceded 2+ rate5.0%
Conceded 3+ rate6.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.16
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.04
History Matches11
Result entropy0.12
Goal Difference Std0.25
Stability score-12.19
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.21
Eligible Matches11
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate-0.65
Trailing Win Rate-0.12
Halftime Coverage Matches11
First Half Goals For Mean-0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.29
Portability PPG Range1.00
Portability Score-13.49
Rest days-104.1
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches11
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.47
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.75
Current Team ELO-110.6
Current Opponent ELO110.6
Current ELO Difference-221.1
Expected score-0.31
History Matches11
Residual Mean-0.11
Overperformance-7.62
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Numancia

W
Atlético Tordesillas1–2Numancia1 Nov · away
Pick: Atlético Tordesillas 40% · missed
L
Numancia2–3Navalcarnero24 Oct · home
Pick: Numancia 60% · missed
D
Numancia0–0CF Talavera18 Oct · home
Pick: Numancia 44% · missed
D
Getafe II0–0Numancia4 Oct · away
Pick: Numancia 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Calvo Sotelo

L
Calvo Sotelo1–2Guadalajara1 Nov · home
Pick: Calvo Sotelo 41% · missed
D
Getafe II2–2Calvo Sotelo25 Oct · away
Pick: Getafe II 48% · missed
L
SS Reyes2–1Calvo Sotelo18 Oct · away
Pick: SS Reyes 50% · hit
L
Real Valladolid II3–0Calvo Sotelo4 Oct · away
Pick: Calvo Sotelo 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Numancia and Calvo Sotelo meet in Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Numancia win 51.4%, draw 24.3%, Calvo Sotelo win 24.3%. The pick is Numancia win. Over 2.5 goals: 42.1%. Both teams to score: 48.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.