ScoreProb
AXA Women’s Super League Switzerland Round 11 2026

Aarau W vs Yverdon W

Aarau W Home · Elo 1,392
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Yverdon W Away · Elo 1,478
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Yverdon W win
Aarau W win
33.5%
Draw
21.8%
Yverdon W winPick
44.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.4%
No49.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.5%
Under 2.549.5%

How much we know

Aarau W history34 matches
Yverdon W history8 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Yverdon W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Yverdon W are rated 86 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,478 against 1,392. On rating alone Yverdon W would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Yverdon W score far more

    0.82 goals a game over 34 matches for Aarau W, against 1.38 over 8 for Yverdon W.

  • Yverdon W concede fewer

    Aarau W concede 1.91 a game, Yverdon W 1.25.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    50% of Aarau W matches, against 50% for Yverdon W. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 16 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Aarau W
Yverdon W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1391.9
ELO
1478.1
34
ELO · Matches
8
1391.9
Current Team ELO
1478.1
1478.1
Current Opponent ELO
1391.9
-86.22
Current ELO Difference
86.22
0.38
Expected score
0.62
34
History Matches
8
-0.15
Residual Mean
-0.14
40.51
Overperformance
45.99
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
0.80
0.40
Goals for per game
1.00
3.40
Goals against per game
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
8
0.50
PPG
1.25
0.50
Goals for per game
1.38
2.10
Goals against per game
1.25
10.0%
Win rate
37.5%
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.38
0.67
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.87
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.25
1.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.09
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.89
1.80
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.37
Overall performance9 signals
90
34
Matches
8
0.71
PPG
1.25
17.6%
Win rate
37.5%
17.6%
Draw rate
12.5%
64.7%
Loss rate
50.0%
79.4%
Over 1.5 rate
62.5%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
32.4%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.37
Venue performance10 signals
100
18
Matches
4
0.83
PPG
1.75
22.2%
Win rate
50.0%
16.7%
Draw rate
25.0%
61.1%
Loss rate
25.0%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
25.0%
38.9%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.12
18
History Matches
4
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.82
Goals for per game
1.38
47.1%
Scoring rate
50.0%
44.1%
BTTS rate
25.0%
0.94
Goals for per game
1.25
55.6%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
0.50
Goals for per game
0.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
34
History Matches
8
0.82
Goals Mean
1.38
1.10
Goals Std
1.87
47.1%
Scored 1+ rate
50.0%
20.6%
Scored 2+ rate
25.0%
11.8%
Scored 3+ rate
25.0%
0.94
Venue Goals Mean
1.25
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.91
Goals against per game
1.25
91.2%
Conceding rate
62.5%
1.61
Goals against per game
0.75
94.4%
Conceding rate
50.0%
4.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
34
History Matches
8
1.91
Conceded Mean
1.25
1.27
Conceded Std
1.09
52.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
29.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.5%
1.61
Venue Conceded Mean
0.75
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
8.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
52.9%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
5.6%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
44.4%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
8.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
52.9%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
5.6%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
44.4%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
8.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
34
History Matches
8
0.81
Result entropy
0.89
1.84
Goal Difference Std
2.37
18.63
Stability score
11.31
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
34
Eligible Matches
8
3
Lead Matches
2
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
1.00
14
Trailing Matches
4
7.1%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
25.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
34
Halftime Coverage Matches
8
0.26
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.79
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
0.56
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
1.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.98
Rest days
84.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
12
Normal Rest History Matches
2
0.92
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
20
Long Rest History Matches
5
0.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.80
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-3.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.00
3
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.40
Portability PPG Std
—
0.80
Portability PPG Range
—
55.56
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
34
Clean History Matches
8
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-86.22
PPG-0.54
GF-0.55
GA0.66
PPG0.00
PPG-0.92
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.75
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches26
Clean-sheet rate-0.29
Failed-to-score rate2.9%
History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate-0.44
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches26
Goals Mean-0.55
Goals Std-0.77
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean-0.31
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.88
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.20
History Matches26
Conceded Mean0.66
Conceded Std0.18
Clean-sheet rate-0.29
Conceded 2+ rate2.9%
Conceded 3+ rate16.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.86
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.85
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.55
History Matches26
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.53
Stability score7.32
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.16
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.57
Eligible Matches26
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate-0.18
Trailing Win Rate-0.18
Halftime Coverage Matches26
First Half Goals For Mean-0.36
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.62
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.50
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days0.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.58
Long Rest History Matches15
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.30
Current Team ELO-86.22
Current Opponent ELO86.22
Current ELO Difference-172.4
Expected score-0.24
History Matches26
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-5.47
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Aarau W

W
Luzern W0–2Aarau W31 Oct · away
Pick: Luzern W 53% · missed
W
Aarau W3–1Basel W17 Oct · home
Pick: Basel W 74% · missed
L
Aarau W0–8Zürich W29 Aug · home
Pick: Zürich W 69% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Yverdon W

L
Grasshopper W3–2Yverdon W31 Oct · away
Pick: Grasshopper W 75% · hit
L
Yverdon W1–2Rapperswil Jona W18 Oct · home
Pick: Yverdon W 44% · missed
L
Yverdon W1–2Grasshopper W29 Aug · home
Pick: Grasshopper W 55% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Aarau W and Yverdon W meet in AXA Women’s Super League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Aarau W win 33.5%, draw 21.8%, Yverdon W win 44.7%. The pick is Yverdon W win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.5%. Both teams to score: 50.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.