ScoreProb
Premiership Scotland Round 13 2026

Aberdeen vs Hibernian

Aberdeen Home · Elo 1,527
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hibernian Away · Elo 1,596
Pittodrie Stadium, Aberdeen Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hibernian win
Aberdeen win
38.5%
Draw
21.3%
Hibernian winPick
40.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.5%
No47.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.6%
Under 2.549.4%

How much we know

Aberdeen history80 matches
Hibernian history75 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 17:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Hibernian are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Hibernian are rated 69 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,596 against 1,527. On rating alone Hibernian would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Hibernian score more

    1.20 goals a game over 80 matches for Aberdeen, against 1.55 over 75 for Hibernian.

  • Hibernian concede fewer

    Aberdeen concede 1.44 a game, Hibernian 1.12.

  • Hibernian games more often go over 2.5 goals

    45% of Aberdeen matches, against 53% for Hibernian. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 16 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Aberdeen
Hibernian
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1527.4
ELO
1596.4
80
ELO · Matches
75
1527.4
Current Team ELO
1596.4
1596.4
Current Opponent ELO
1527.4
-68.99
Current ELO Difference
68.99
0.40
Expected score
0.60
80
History Matches
75
0.02
Residual Mean
0.06
51.51
Overperformance
54.72
0.35
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
2.00
2.40
Goals for per game
1.20
0.80
Goals against per game
0.80
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.40
PPG
1.90
1.90
Goals for per game
1.70
0.60
Goals against per game
1.00
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.22
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.62
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.63
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.73
Overall performance9 signals
90
80
Matches
75
1.28
PPG
1.61
36.3%
Win rate
45.3%
18.8%
Draw rate
25.3%
45.0%
Loss rate
29.3%
73.8%
Over 1.5 rate
77.3%
45.0%
Over 2.5 rate
53.3%
26.3%
Over 3.5 rate
29.3%
2.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
Venue performance10 signals
100
40
Matches
39
1.60
PPG
1.44
45.0%
Win rate
38.5%
25.0%
Draw rate
28.2%
30.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
77.5%
Over 1.5 rate
71.8%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
43.6%
30.0%
Over 3.5 rate
28.2%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
40
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.20
Goals for per game
1.55
63.8%
Scoring rate
72.0%
38.8%
BTTS rate
52.0%
1.65
Goals for per game
1.31
82.5%
Scoring rate
61.5%
52.5%
BTTS rate
48.7%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
80
History Matches
75
1.20
Goals Mean
1.55
1.26
Goals Std
1.26
63.8%
Scored 1+ rate
72.0%
33.8%
Scored 2+ rate
52.0%
13.8%
Scored 3+ rate
24.0%
1.65
Venue Goals Mean
1.31
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.44
Goals against per game
1.12
70.0%
Conceding rate
70.7%
1.20
Goals against per game
1.18
67.5%
Conceding rate
76.9%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
80
History Matches
75
1.44
Conceded Mean
1.12
1.34
Conceded Std
0.94
43.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
18.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.7%
1.20
Venue Conceded Mean
1.18
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.3%
36.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.0%
32.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
17.5%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.3%
36.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.0%
32.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
17.5%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
80
History Matches
75
0.95
Result entropy
0.97
2.02
Goal Difference Std
1.60
5.24
Stability score
2.95
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
80
Eligible Matches
75
26
Lead Matches
32
80.8%
Lead Win Rate
81.3%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.86
31
Trailing Matches
17
19.4%
Non-loss rate
11.8%
6.5%
Trailing Win Rate
5.9%
Goal timing5 signals
50
80
Halftime Coverage Matches
75
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.16
Rest days
83.20
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
12
Short Rest History Matches
10
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.60
46
Normal Rest History Matches
40
1.11
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.60
21
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.58
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
11
Competition Season Count
12
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.79
Portability PPG Std
0.22
2.67
Portability PPG Range
0.50
38.65
Portability Score
69.10
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
80
Clean History Matches
75
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-68.99
PPG-0.34
GF-0.35
GA0.32
PPG0.00
PPG0.16
PPG0.40
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate0.7%
Failed-to-score rate8.3%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate9.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches5
Goals Mean-0.35
Goals Std0.00
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.18
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean0.34
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.39
History Matches5
Conceded Mean0.32
Conceded Std0.40
Clean-sheet rate0.7%
Conceded 2+ rate10.4%
Conceded 3+ rate12.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.02
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.03
History Matches5
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.42
Stability score2.29
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.12
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate0.00
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches14
Non-loss rate7.6%
Trailing Win Rate0.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.50
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.57
Portability PPG Range2.17
Portability Score-30.45
Rest days0.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.27
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.49
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.08
Current Team ELO-68.99
Current Opponent ELO68.99
Current ELO Difference-138.0
Expected score-0.20
History Matches5
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Aberdeen

L
Rangers1–0Aberdeen31 Oct · away
Pick: Rangers 62% · hit
L
Aberdeen0–1Falkirk28 Oct · home
Pick: Aberdeen 58% · missed
L
Dundee Utd3–2Aberdeen24 Oct · away
Pick: Aberdeen 46% · missed
W
Aberdeen3–1ST Mirren17 Oct · home
Pick: Aberdeen 40% · hit
L
Aberdeen0–1Rangers30 Aug · home
Pick: Rangers 41% · hit

Hibernian

W
Heart Of Midlothian1–2Hibernian1 Nov · away
Pick: Heart Of Midlothian 51% · missed
D
ST Mirren1–1Hibernian28 Oct · away
Pick: ST Mirren 50% · missed
L
Hibernian1–2Celtic25 Oct · home
Pick: Celtic 50% · hit
L
Hibernian1–2Falkirk17 Oct · home
Pick: Hibernian 61% · missed
W
Dundee1–2Hibernian30 Aug · away
Pick: Dundee 46% · missed

About this match

Aberdeen and Hibernian meet in Premiership on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:45 UTC. The match is played at Pittodrie Stadium, Aberdeen. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Aberdeen win 38.5%, draw 21.3%, Hibernian win 40.2%. The pick is Hibernian win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.6%. Both teams to score: 52.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.