ScoreProb
Premiership Scotland Round 13 2026

ST Johnstone vs Dundee

ST Johnstone Home · Elo 1,650
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Dundee Away · Elo 1,512
McDiarmid Park, Perth Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: ST Johnstone win
ST Johnstone winPick
44.0%
Draw
26.8%
Dundee win
29.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.7%
No48.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.7%
Under 2.547.3%

How much we know

ST Johnstone history71 matches
Dundee history73 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why ST Johnstone are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • ST Johnstone are rated 139 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,650 against 1,512. On rating alone ST Johnstone would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.

  • ST Johnstone score more

    1.73 goals a game over 71 matches for ST Johnstone, against 1.36 over 73 for Dundee.

  • ST Johnstone concede fewer

    ST Johnstone concede 0.90 a game, Dundee 1.63.

  • Dundee games more often go over 2.5 goals

    46% of ST Johnstone matches, against 58% for Dundee. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
ST Johnstone
Dundee
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1650.4
ELO
1511.8
71
ELO · Matches
73
1650.4
Current Team ELO
1511.8
1511.8
Current Opponent ELO
1650.4
138.6
Current ELO Difference
-138.6
0.69
Expected score
0.31
71
History Matches
73
0.10
Residual Mean
0.00
58.16
Overperformance
50.16
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.80
1.60
Goals for per game
1.60
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.70
2.20
Goals for per game
1.90
0.80
Goals against per game
1.20
70.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.54
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.76
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.33
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.72
Overall performance9 signals
90
71
Matches
73
1.93
PPG
1.22
56.3%
Win rate
34.2%
23.9%
Draw rate
19.2%
19.7%
Loss rate
46.6%
66.2%
Over 1.5 rate
79.5%
46.5%
Over 2.5 rate
57.5%
29.6%
Over 3.5 rate
38.4%
1.93
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.20
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
40
1.97
PPG
0.95
55.6%
Win rate
25.0%
30.6%
Draw rate
20.0%
13.9%
Loss rate
55.0%
69.4%
Over 1.5 rate
72.5%
47.2%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
30.6%
Over 3.5 rate
35.0%
2.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
36
History Matches
40
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.73
Goals for per game
1.36
77.5%
Scoring rate
67.1%
39.4%
BTTS rate
46.6%
1.89
Goals for per game
1.00
75.0%
Scoring rate
55.0%
38.9%
BTTS rate
40.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.33
50.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
71
History Matches
73
1.73
Goals Mean
1.36
1.57
Goals Std
1.33
77.5%
Scored 1+ rate
67.1%
45.1%
Scored 2+ rate
38.4%
26.8%
Scored 3+ rate
19.2%
1.89
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.90
Goals against per game
1.63
50.7%
Conceding rate
76.7%
0.89
Goals against per game
1.70
50.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
0.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
33.3%
71
History Matches
73
0.90
Conceded Mean
1.63
1.12
Conceded Std
1.39
25.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.9%
11.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.3%
0.89
Venue Conceded Mean
1.70
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
49.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
22.5%
Failed-to-score rate
32.9%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
45.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
49.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
22.5%
Failed-to-score rate
32.9%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
45.0%
49.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
71
History Matches
73
0.90
Result entropy
0.95
1.93
Goal Difference Std
2.20
10.28
Stability score
5.37
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
71
Eligible Matches
73
25
Lead Matches
22
92.0%
Lead Win Rate
77.3%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.80
18
Trailing Matches
27
38.9%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
14.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
71
Halftime Coverage Matches
73
0.79
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
0.94
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.39
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.96
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
91.04
Rest days
76.93
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.60
50
Normal Rest History Matches
42
1.88
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.45
17
Long Rest History Matches
25
2.06
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.80
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
3
1.50
PPG
2.00
50.0%
Win rate
66.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
2
Current Competition Matches
3
1.50
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
9
Competition Season Count
9
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.59
Portability PPG Std
0.60
2.00
Portability PPG Range
1.67
45.77
Portability Score
45.65
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
71
Clean History Matches
73
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO138.6
PPG0.71
GF0.38
GA-0.73
PPG-0.50
PPG1.02
PPG-0.40
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate26.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate30.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.38
Goals Std0.25
Scored 1+ rate10.3%
Scored 2+ rate6.7%
Scored 3+ rate7.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.89
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.22
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.73
Conceded Std-0.27
Clean-sheet rate26.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.23
Conceded 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Conceded Mean-0.81
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.35
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.27
Stability score4.90
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.10
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate14.7%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate16.7%
Trailing Win Rate1.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.56
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.00
Portability PPG Range0.33
Portability Score0.12
Rest days14.11
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.07
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.43
Long Rest History Matches-8
Long Rest Points Per Match1.26
Current Team ELO138.6
Current Opponent ELO-138.6
Current ELO Difference277.2
Expected score0.38
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance8.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

ST Johnstone

D
Kilmarnock2–2ST Johnstone31 Oct · away
Pick: ST Johnstone 49% · missed
D
ST Johnstone2–2Motherwell28 Oct · home
Pick: ST Johnstone 41% · missed
L
Rangers4–0ST Johnstone24 Oct · away
Pick: Rangers 48% · hit
D
ST Johnstone1–1Dundee Utd17 Oct · home
Pick: ST Johnstone 68% · missed
L
Heart Of Midlothian2–1ST Johnstone29 Aug · away
Pick: Heart Of Midlothian 54% · hit

Dundee

W
Dundee3–1Kilmarnock28 Oct · home
Pick: Dundee 59% · hit
L
ST Mirren2–1Dundee24 Oct · away
Pick: ST Mirren 47% · hit
D
Dundee2–2Rangers17 Oct · home
Pick: Dundee 50% · missed
L
Dundee1–2Hibernian30 Aug · home
Pick: Dundee 46% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

ST Johnstone and Dundee meet in Premiership on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at McDiarmid Park, Perth. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: ST Johnstone win 44.0%, draw 26.8%, Dundee win 29.2%. The pick is ST Johnstone win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.7%. Both teams to score: 51.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.