ScoreProb
Premiership Scotland Round 13 2026

ST Mirren vs Rangers

ST Mirren Home · Elo 1,544
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Rangers Away · Elo 1,602
The SMISA Stadium, Paisley Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: ST Mirren win
ST Mirren winPick
46.4%
Draw
24.0%
Rangers win
29.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.5%
No49.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.2%
Under 2.542.8%

How much we know

ST Mirren history75 matches
Rangers history88 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why ST Mirren are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Rangers are rated 58 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,602 against 1,544. On rating alone Rangers would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Rangers score more

    1.39 goals a game over 75 matches for ST Mirren, against 1.88 over 88 for Rangers.

  • Defences are close

    ST Mirren concede 1.37 a game, Rangers 1.30.

  • Rangers games more often go over 2.5 goals

    43% of ST Mirren matches, against 61% for Rangers. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 16 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
ST Mirren
Rangers
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1543.8
ELO
1602.3
75
ELO · Matches
88
1543.8
Current Team ELO
1602.3
1602.3
Current Opponent ELO
1543.8
-58.49
Current ELO Difference
58.49
0.42
Expected score
0.58
75
History Matches
88
0.03
Residual Mean
0.07
52.24
Overperformance
55.50
0.31
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.00
1.60
Goals for per game
1.80
1.80
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.20
2.20
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
1.50
70.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.54
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.66
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.81
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.24
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.79
Overall performance9 signals
90
75
Matches
88
1.35
PPG
1.63
34.7%
Win rate
44.3%
30.7%
Draw rate
29.5%
34.7%
Loss rate
26.1%
74.7%
Over 1.5 rate
85.2%
42.7%
Over 2.5 rate
61.4%
30.7%
Over 3.5 rate
39.8%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
39
1.51
PPG
1.49
40.5%
Win rate
38.5%
29.7%
Draw rate
33.3%
29.7%
Loss rate
28.2%
59.5%
Over 1.5 rate
92.3%
37.8%
Over 2.5 rate
69.2%
27.0%
Over 3.5 rate
43.6%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
37
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.39
Goals for per game
1.88
69.3%
Scoring rate
81.8%
50.7%
BTTS rate
62.5%
1.32
Goals for per game
1.82
62.2%
Scoring rate
89.7%
40.5%
BTTS rate
76.9%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
75
History Matches
88
1.39
Goals Mean
1.88
1.44
Goals Std
1.59
69.3%
Scored 1+ rate
81.8%
38.7%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
14.7%
Scored 3+ rate
28.4%
1.32
Venue Goals Mean
1.82
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.37
Goals against per game
1.30
74.7%
Conceding rate
73.9%
1.24
Goals against per game
1.62
67.6%
Conceding rate
84.6%
0.00
Goals against per game
1.50
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
75
History Matches
88
1.37
Conceded Mean
1.30
1.22
Conceded Std
1.06
38.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.2%
14.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.1%
1.24
Venue Conceded Mean
1.62
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
30.7%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
37.8%
Failed-to-score rate
10.3%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
30.7%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
37.8%
Failed-to-score rate
10.3%
25.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
75
History Matches
88
1.00
Result entropy
0.98
1.85
Goal Difference Std
1.99
0.15
Stability score
2.46
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
75
Eligible Matches
88
23
Lead Matches
34
65.2%
Lead Win Rate
73.5%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.81
20
Trailing Matches
27
20.0%
Non-loss rate
40.7%
5.0%
Trailing Win Rate
14.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
75
Halftime Coverage Matches
88
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.07
0.84
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.21
Rest days
83.21
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
16
1.29
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.88
45
Normal Rest History Matches
54
1.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.56
22
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.45
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.53
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
3.00
PPG
0.50
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.50
1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
8
Competition Season Count
13
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.43
Portability PPG Std
0.62
1.30
Portability PPG Range
1.83
53.78
Portability Score
44.79
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
75
Clean History Matches
88
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-58.49
PPG-0.28
GF-0.49
GA0.08
PPG2.50
PPG0.03
PPG0.80
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-13
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate12.5%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate17.0%
Failed-to-score rate27.6%
History Matches-13
Goals Mean-0.49
Goals Std-0.15
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.13
History Matches-13
Conceded Mean0.08
Conceded Std0.16
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate5.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.37
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.79
History Matches-13
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.14
Stability score-2.31
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.44
Eligible Matches-13
Lead Matches-11
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate-0.21
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches-13
First Half Goals For Mean-0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count-5
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.19
Portability PPG Range-0.53
Portability Score8.99
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-9
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.59
Normal Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.22
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.07
Current Team ELO-58.49
Current Opponent ELO58.49
Current ELO Difference-117.0
Expected score-0.17
History Matches-13
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.42

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

ST Mirren

L
Motherwell1–0ST Mirren31 Oct · away
Pick: Motherwell 41% · hit
D
ST Mirren1–1Hibernian28 Oct · home
Pick: ST Mirren 50% · missed
W
ST Mirren2–1Dundee24 Oct · home
Pick: ST Mirren 47% · hit
L
Aberdeen3–1ST Mirren17 Oct · away
Pick: Aberdeen 40% · hit
D
ST Mirren3–3Motherwell30 Aug · home
Pick: ST Mirren 51% · missed

Rangers

W
Rangers1–0Aberdeen31 Oct · home
Pick: Rangers 62% · hit
W
Rangers4–0ST Johnstone24 Oct · home
Pick: Rangers 48% · hit
D
Dundee2–2Rangers17 Oct · away
Pick: Dundee 50% · missed
W
Aberdeen0–1Rangers30 Aug · away
Pick: Rangers 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

ST Mirren and Rangers meet in Premiership on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. The match is played at The SMISA Stadium, Paisley. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: ST Mirren win 46.4%, draw 24.0%, Rangers win 29.6%. The pick is ST Mirren win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.2%. Both teams to score: 50.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.