ScoreProb
Liga 3 Portugal Round 9 2026

AD Marco 09 vs Paredes

AD Marco 09 Home · Elo 1,516
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Paredes Away · Elo 1,548
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: AD Marco 09 win
AD Marco 09 winPick
38.5%
Draw
32.8%
Paredes win
28.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.9%
No52.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.540.3%
Under 2.559.7%

How much we know

AD Marco 09 history53 matches
Paredes history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.5%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why AD Marco 09 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Paredes are rated 32 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,548 against 1,516. On rating alone Paredes would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Paredes score far more

    0.96 goals a game over 53 matches for AD Marco 09, against 1.52 over 52 for Paredes.

  • Defences are close

    AD Marco 09 concede 0.96 a game, Paredes 0.94.

  • Paredes games more often go over 2.5 goals

    32% of AD Marco 09 matches, against 42% for Paredes. The model puts this match at 40% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
AD Marco 09
Paredes
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1516.1
ELO
1548.2
53
ELO · Matches
52
1516.1
Current Team ELO
1548.2
1548.2
Current Opponent ELO
1516.1
-32.11
Current ELO Difference
32.11
0.45
Expected score
0.55
53
History Matches
52
0.01
Residual Mean
0.05
50.96
Overperformance
53.53
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.40
1.20
Goals for per game
2.60
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.70
1.00
Goals for per game
1.90
0.80
Goals against per game
1.30
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
0.77
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.64
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.56
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
52
1.40
PPG
1.60
34.0%
Win rate
42.3%
37.7%
Draw rate
32.7%
28.3%
Loss rate
25.0%
58.5%
Over 1.5 rate
65.4%
32.1%
Over 2.5 rate
42.3%
13.2%
Over 3.5 rate
28.8%
1.27
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.55
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
25
1.73
PPG
1.44
46.2%
Win rate
40.0%
34.6%
Draw rate
24.0%
19.2%
Loss rate
36.0%
61.5%
Over 1.5 rate
64.0%
38.5%
Over 2.5 rate
52.0%
15.4%
Over 3.5 rate
36.0%
1.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
26
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.96
Goals for per game
1.52
64.2%
Scoring rate
65.4%
41.5%
BTTS rate
44.2%
1.12
Goals for per game
1.64
69.2%
Scoring rate
68.0%
46.2%
BTTS rate
52.0%
1.67
Goals for per game
1.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
53
History Matches
52
0.96
Goals Mean
1.52
0.93
Goals Std
1.49
64.2%
Scored 1+ rate
65.4%
24.5%
Scored 2+ rate
44.2%
5.7%
Scored 3+ rate
25.0%
1.12
Venue Goals Mean
1.64
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.96
Goals against per game
0.94
58.5%
Conceding rate
61.5%
0.96
Goals against per game
1.24
61.5%
Conceding rate
76.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
53
History Matches
52
0.96
Conceded Mean
0.94
0.99
Conceded Std
0.89
28.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.8%
9.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.8%
0.96
Venue Conceded Mean
1.24
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
41.5%
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
35.8%
Failed-to-score rate
34.6%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
32.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
41.5%
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
35.8%
Failed-to-score rate
34.6%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
32.0%
41.5%
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
52
0.99
Result entropy
0.98
1.27
Goal Difference Std
1.55
0.62
Stability score
2.06
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
51
12
Lead Matches
20
58.3%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.80
12
Trailing Matches
5
41.7%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
0.44
First Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.29
0.54
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.48
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.17
Rest days
76.42
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
26
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.58
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.64
26
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.15
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.48
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.00
PPG
2.00
66.7%
Win rate
66.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.67
6
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.64
Portability PPG Std
0.29
1.70
Portability PPG Range
0.70
43.99
Portability Score
63.30
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-32.11
PPG-0.20
GF-0.56
GA0.02
PPG0.00
PPG0.29
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate3.0%
Failed-to-score rate1.2%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate14.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.56
Goals Std-0.56
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate-0.20
Scored 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Goals Mean-0.52
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.87
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.02
Conceded Std0.10
Clean-sheet rate3.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate5.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.28
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.09
History Matches1
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.27
Stability score-1.43
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.49
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate-0.17
Lead Points Retention-0.13
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate1.7%
Trailing Win Rate16.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.35
Portability PPG Range1.00
Portability Score-19.31
Rest days-0.25
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.07
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.32
Current Team ELO-32.11
Current Opponent ELO32.11
Current ELO Difference-64.22
Expected score-0.09
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.57
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

AD Marco 09

W
Trofense0–2AD Marco 0931 Oct · away
Pick: AD Marco 09 38% · hit
D
AD Marco 090–0Fafe25 Oct · home
Pick: AD Marco 09 34% · missed
L
Farense3–0AD Marco 0917 Oct · away
Pick: Farense 46% · hit
W
Régua0–1AD Marco 0930 Aug · away
Pick: AD Marco 09 46% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Paredes

W
Paredes2–1São João Ver1 Nov · home
Pick: Paredes 58% · hit
W
Paredes4–0Trofense24 Oct · home
Pick: Paredes 56% · hit
W
Paredes1–0Famalicao18 Oct · home
Pick: Paredes 35% · hit
W
Ermesinde1–3Paredes30 Aug · away
Pick: Paredes 38% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

AD Marco 09 and Paredes meet in Liga 3 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: AD Marco 09 win 38.5%, draw 32.8%, Paredes win 28.7%. The pick is AD Marco 09 win. Over 2.5 goals: 40.3%. Both teams to score: 47.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.