ScoreProb
Liga 3 Portugal Round 9 2026

Varzim vs Fafe

Varzim Home · Elo 1,531
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Fafe Away · Elo 1,547
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Varzim win
Varzim winPick
44.2%
Draw
26.5%
Fafe win
29.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.3%
No50.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.2%
Under 2.553.8%

How much we know

Varzim history54 matches
Fafe history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Varzim are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,531 against 1,547. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.30 goals a game over 54 matches for Varzim, against 1.24 over 59 for Fafe.

  • Defences are close

    Varzim concede 1.17 a game, Fafe 1.15.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    44% of Varzim matches, against 41% for Fafe. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Varzim
Fafe
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1530.5
ELO
1546.5
54
ELO · Matches
59
1530.5
Current Team ELO
1546.5
1546.5
Current Opponent ELO
1530.5
-15.98
Current ELO Difference
15.98
0.48
Expected score
0.52
54
History Matches
59
0.02
Residual Mean
0.04
51.62
Overperformance
53.11
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
2.20
1.60
Goals for per game
1.40
0.60
Goals against per game
0.40
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.50
1.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.26
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.78
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
59
1.39
PPG
1.44
38.9%
Win rate
39.0%
22.2%
Draw rate
27.1%
38.9%
Loss rate
33.9%
64.8%
Over 1.5 rate
66.1%
44.4%
Over 2.5 rate
40.7%
24.1%
Over 3.5 rate
22.0%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
29
1.72
PPG
1.07
48.0%
Win rate
27.6%
28.0%
Draw rate
24.1%
24.0%
Loss rate
48.3%
76.0%
Over 1.5 rate
58.6%
48.0%
Over 2.5 rate
41.4%
24.0%
Over 3.5 rate
34.5%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
25
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.30
Goals for per game
1.24
66.7%
Scoring rate
74.6%
44.4%
BTTS rate
50.8%
1.60
Goals for per game
1.14
76.0%
Scoring rate
62.1%
52.0%
BTTS rate
44.8%
2.33
Goals for per game
1.33
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
54
History Matches
59
1.30
Goals Mean
1.24
1.26
Goals Std
1.03
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
74.6%
38.9%
Scored 2+ rate
32.2%
14.8%
Scored 3+ rate
15.3%
1.60
Venue Goals Mean
1.14
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.17
Goals against per game
1.15
70.4%
Conceding rate
67.8%
0.96
Goals against per game
1.45
68.0%
Conceding rate
72.4%
0.67
Goals against per game
0.67
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
54
History Matches
59
1.17
Conceded Mean
1.15
1.10
Conceded Std
1.20
29.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.1%
11.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.2%
0.96
Venue Conceded Mean
1.45
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.2%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.4%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
27.6%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.9%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
29.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.2%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.4%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
27.6%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.9%
29.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
59
0.97
Result entropy
0.99
1.66
Goal Difference Std
1.53
2.71
Stability score
0.98
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
57
15
Lead Matches
14
86.7%
Lead Win Rate
64.3%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.74
15
Trailing Matches
12
20.0%
Non-loss rate
41.7%
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
33.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
0.70
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.81
Rest days
78.81
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
21
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.81
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.28
32
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.16
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.60
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
3.00
PPG
1.67
100.0%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
66.7%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.94
3
Current Competition Matches
3
3.00
Current Competition PPG
1.67
1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.67
6
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.78
Portability PPG Std
0.50
1.69
Portability PPG Range
1.29
39.19
Portability Score
50.21
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-15.98
PPG-0.05
GF0.06
GA0.01
PPG1.33
PPG0.65
PPG0.20
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate7.9%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate4.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-5
Goals Mean0.06
Goals Std0.23
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate6.7%
Scored 3+ rate0.00
Venue Goals Mean0.46
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.04
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean0.01
Conceded Std-0.10
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate2.5%
Conceded 3+ rate0.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.49
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.49
History Matches-5
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.12
Stability score1.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.58
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate22.4%
Lead Points Retention0.17
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.22
Trailing Win Rate-0.27
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.28
Portability PPG Range0.40
Portability Score-11.02
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-11
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.53
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.44
Current Team ELO-15.98
Current Opponent ELO15.98
Current ELO Difference-31.97
Expected score-0.05
History Matches-5
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.49
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Varzim

L
Leça2–0Varzim31 Oct · away
Pick: Leça 43% · hit
L
Varzim2–4Guimaraes B25 Oct · home
Pick: Varzim 54% · missed
W
Varzim5–1Trofense29 Aug · home
Pick: Varzim 51% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Fafe

W
Fafe3–1Pacos Ferreira30 Oct · home
Pick: Fafe 60% · hit
D
AD Marco 090–0Fafe25 Oct · away
Pick: AD Marco 09 34% · missed
L
Felgueiras 19321–0Fafe18 Oct · away
Pick: Felgueiras 1932 40% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Varzim and Fafe meet in Liga 3 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Varzim win 44.2%, draw 26.5%, Fafe win 29.3%. The pick is Varzim win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.2%. Both teams to score: 49.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.