ScoreProb
Liga 3 Portugal Round 9 2026

São João Ver vs Guimaraes B

São João Ver Home · Elo 1,494
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Guimaraes B Away · Elo 1,564
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Guimaraes B win
São João Ver win
31.6%
Draw
28.0%
Guimaraes B winPick
40.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.9%
No51.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.1%
Under 2.552.9%

How much we know

São João Ver history48 matches
Guimaraes B history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Guimaraes B are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Guimaraes B are rated 70 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,564 against 1,494. On rating alone Guimaraes B would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Guimaraes B score more

    1.02 goals a game over 48 matches for São João Ver, against 1.41 over 54 for Guimaraes B.

  • Guimaraes B concede fewer

    São João Ver concede 1.33 a game, Guimaraes B 1.15.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    42% of São João Ver matches, against 44% for Guimaraes B. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
São João Ver
Guimaraes B
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1494.0
ELO
1563.7
48
ELO · Matches
54
1494.0
Current Team ELO
1563.7
1563.7
Current Opponent ELO
1494.0
-69.73
Current ELO Difference
69.73
0.40
Expected score
0.60
48
History Matches
54
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.05
49.39
Overperformance
53.96
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.40
0.80
Goals for per game
1.60
1.20
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.10
0.80
Goals for per game
1.20
0.90
Goals against per game
1.50
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
0.94
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.27
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
54
1.17
PPG
1.61
27.1%
Win rate
42.6%
35.4%
Draw rate
33.3%
37.5%
Loss rate
24.1%
62.5%
Over 1.5 rate
75.9%
41.7%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
22.9%
Over 3.5 rate
24.1%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.14
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
28
1.35
PPG
1.46
34.8%
Win rate
32.1%
30.4%
Draw rate
50.0%
34.8%
Loss rate
17.9%
60.9%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
43.5%
Over 2.5 rate
32.1%
26.1%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.89
23
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.02
Goals for per game
1.41
62.5%
Scoring rate
87.0%
47.9%
BTTS rate
63.0%
1.17
Goals for per game
1.18
60.9%
Scoring rate
82.1%
47.8%
BTTS rate
67.9%
0.67
Goals for per game
1.33
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
48
History Matches
54
1.02
Goals Mean
1.41
1.18
Goals Std
0.89
62.5%
Scored 1+ rate
87.0%
22.9%
Scored 2+ rate
38.9%
8.3%
Scored 3+ rate
14.8%
1.17
Venue Goals Mean
1.18
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.33
Goals against per game
1.15
72.9%
Conceding rate
68.5%
1.22
Goals against per game
1.00
73.9%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.67
Goals against per game
1.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
48
History Matches
54
1.33
Conceded Mean
1.15
1.20
Conceded Std
1.03
37.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
14.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.1%
1.22
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.1%
Clean-sheet rate
31.5%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
13.0%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
39.1%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
27.1%
Clean-sheet rate
31.5%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
13.0%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
39.1%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
27.1%
Clean-sheet rate
31.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
54
0.99
Result entropy
0.98
1.57
Goal Difference Std
1.14
0.86
Stability score
2.37
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
45
Eligible Matches
53
11
Lead Matches
19
54.5%
Lead Win Rate
57.9%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.67
12
Trailing Matches
13
16.7%
Non-loss rate
38.5%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.49
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.96
Rest days
77.81
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
19
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.32
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.78
28
Long Rest History Matches
30
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.33
PPG
1.33
0.0%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
66.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.33
Current Competition PPG
1.33
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
6
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.42
Portability PPG Std
0.26
1.03
Portability PPG Range
0.67
54.29
Portability Score
65.86
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-69.73
PPG-0.44
GF-0.39
GA0.19
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.12
PPG-0.40
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate24.5%
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate1.1%
Failed-to-score rate21.3%
History Matches-6
Goals Mean-0.39
Goals Std0.29
Scored 1+ rate-0.25
Scored 2+ rate-0.16
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.12
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean0.19
Conceded Std0.17
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate4.2%
Conceded 3+ rate3.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.22
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.19
History Matches-6
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.43
Stability score-1.52
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.33
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.22
Trailing Win Rate0.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.16
Portability PPG Range0.36
Portability Score-11.57
Rest days-0.85
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.47
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Current Team ELO-69.73
Current Opponent ELO69.73
Current ELO Difference-139.5
Expected score-0.20
History Matches-6
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.56
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

São João Ver

L
Paredes2–1São João Ver1 Nov · away
Pick: Paredes 58% · hit
W
Vianense1–3São João Ver25 Oct · away
Pick: Vianense 54% · missed
D
Florgrade0–0São João Ver30 Aug · away
Pick: Florgrade 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Guimaraes B

D
Guimaraes B2–2Vianense1 Nov · home
Pick: Guimaraes B 43% · missed
W
Varzim2–4Guimaraes B25 Oct · away
Pick: Varzim 54% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

São João Ver and Guimaraes B meet in Liga 3 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: São João Ver win 31.6%, draw 28.0%, Guimaraes B win 40.3%. The pick is Guimaraes B win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.1%. Both teams to score: 48.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.