ScoreProb
2. Liga Austria Round 12 2026

Admira Wacker vs SKN ST. Polten

Admira Wacker Home · Elo 1,515
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
SKN ST. Polten Away · Elo 1,560
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Admira Wacker win
Admira Wacker winPick
42.3%
Draw
20.8%
SKN ST. Polten win
36.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.3%
No44.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.3%
Under 2.540.7%

How much we know

Admira Wacker history64 matches
SKN ST. Polten history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Admira Wacker are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • SKN ST. Polten are rated 45 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,560 against 1,515. On rating alone SKN ST. Polten would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • SKN ST. Polten score more

    1.64 goals a game over 64 matches for Admira Wacker, against 1.88 over 64 for SKN ST. Polten.

  • SKN ST. Polten concede fewer

    Admira Wacker concede 1.47 a game, SKN ST. Polten 1.13.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    61% of Admira Wacker matches, against 61% for SKN ST. Polten. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 21 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Admira Wacker
SKN ST. Polten
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1515.2
ELO
1560.4
64
ELO · Matches
64
1515.2
Current Team ELO
1560.4
1560.4
Current Opponent ELO
1515.2
-45.19
Current ELO Difference
45.19
0.44
Expected score
0.56
64
History Matches
64
0.01
Residual Mean
0.05
50.44
Overperformance
53.45
-0.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.20
0.80
Goals for per game
0.20
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
0.60
PPG
1.10
0.80
Goals for per game
1.00
2.50
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
2.33
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.48
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
64
1.48
PPG
1.80
40.6%
Win rate
53.1%
26.6%
Draw rate
20.3%
32.8%
Loss rate
26.6%
79.7%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
60.9%
Over 2.5 rate
60.9%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
32
1.67
PPG
1.66
46.7%
Win rate
46.9%
26.7%
Draw rate
25.0%
26.7%
Loss rate
28.1%
76.7%
Over 1.5 rate
78.1%
63.3%
Over 2.5 rate
65.6%
43.3%
Over 3.5 rate
34.4%
1.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.95
30
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.64
Goals for per game
1.88
81.3%
Scoring rate
78.1%
59.4%
BTTS rate
53.1%
1.73
Goals for per game
1.94
83.3%
Scoring rate
78.1%
60.0%
BTTS rate
59.4%
0.75
Goals for per game
0.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
64
History Matches
64
1.64
Goals Mean
1.88
1.30
Goals Std
1.59
81.3%
Scored 1+ rate
78.1%
46.9%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
21.9%
Scored 3+ rate
32.8%
1.73
Venue Goals Mean
1.94
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.47
Goals against per game
1.13
73.4%
Conceding rate
65.6%
1.40
Goals against per game
1.28
73.3%
Conceding rate
71.9%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
64
History Matches
64
1.47
Conceded Mean
1.13
1.44
Conceded Std
1.08
39.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.3%
21.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.5%
1.40
Venue Conceded Mean
1.28
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.6%
Clean-sheet rate
34.4%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
21.9%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
21.9%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
26.6%
Clean-sheet rate
34.4%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
21.9%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
21.9%
26.6%
Clean-sheet rate
34.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
64
0.99
Result entropy
0.92
2.01
Goal Difference Std
1.89
1.36
Stability score
7.89
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
62
Eligible Matches
64
21
Lead Matches
23
76.2%
Lead Win Rate
87.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.90
20
Trailing Matches
13
20.0%
Non-loss rate
23.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
23.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
64
0.69
First Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.39
0.90
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.06
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.13
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
35
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.63
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.55
24
Long Rest History Matches
28
1.21
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.07
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.75
PPG
0.00
25.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
75.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.75
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
7
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.55
Portability PPG Std
0.77
1.58
Portability PPG Range
2.40
47.58
Portability Score
39.37
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-45.19
PPG-0.31
GF-0.23
GA0.34
PPG0.75
PPG0.01
PPG0.40
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.23
Goals Std-0.28
Scored 1+ rate3.1%
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.35
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.34
Conceded Std0.35
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate7.8%
Conceded 3+ rate9.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.12
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.56
History Matches0
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std0.12
Stability score-6.54
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.48
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.84
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.11
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate-0.23
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean0.29
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.75
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.22
Portability PPG Range-0.82
Portability Score8.21
Rest days-0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.08
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.86
Current Team ELO-45.19
Current Opponent ELO45.19
Current ELO Difference-90.39
Expected score-0.13
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Admira Wacker

L
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz1–0Admira Wacker31 Oct · away
Pick: Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 42% · hit
W
Admira Wacker1–0Wacker Innsbruck24 Oct · home
Pick: Wacker Innsbruck 61% · missed
W
Floridsdorfer AC0–2Admira Wacker17 Oct · away
Pick: Floridsdorfer AC 52% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

SKN ST. Polten

W
SKN ST. Polten2–1WSPG Wels30 Oct · home
Pick: SKN ST. Polten 47% · hit
D
SV Kapfenberg1–1SKN ST. Polten23 Oct · away
Pick: SKN ST. Polten 47% · missed
D
SKN ST. Polten0–0Rapid Wien II16 Oct · home
Pick: SKN ST. Polten 49% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Admira Wacker and SKN ST. Polten meet in 2. Liga on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Admira Wacker win 42.3%, draw 20.8%, SKN ST. Polten win 36.9%. The pick is Admira Wacker win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.3%. Both teams to score: 55.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.