ScoreProb
2. Liga Austria Round 12 2026

FC Liefering vs Austria Salzburg

FC Liefering Home · Elo 1,597
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Austria Salzburg Away · Elo 1,593
Red Bull Arena, Salzburg Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FC Liefering win
FC Liefering winPick
37.5%
Draw
27.5%
Austria Salzburg win
34.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.2%
No41.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.1%
Under 2.539.9%

How much we know

FC Liefering history58 matches
Austria Salzburg history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 17:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.5%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why FC Liefering are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,597 against 1,593. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.88 goals a game over 58 matches for FC Liefering, against 1.79 over 62 for Austria Salzburg.

  • Defences are close

    FC Liefering concede 1.21 a game, Austria Salzburg 1.24.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    57% of FC Liefering matches, against 55% for Austria Salzburg. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 21 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Liefering
Austria Salzburg
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1597.5
ELO
1592.6
58
ELO · Matches
62
1597.5
Current Team ELO
1592.6
1592.6
Current Opponent ELO
1597.5
4.91
Current ELO Difference
-4.91
0.51
Expected score
0.49
58
History Matches
62
0.10
Residual Mean
0.07
57.79
Overperformance
55.32
0.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.40
2.40
Goals for per game
3.00
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.50
PPG
2.10
2.90
Goals for per game
2.70
1.00
Goals against per game
1.30
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.70
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.42
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.58
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.85
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
62
1.79
PPG
1.66
51.7%
Win rate
46.8%
24.1%
Draw rate
25.8%
24.1%
Loss rate
27.4%
77.6%
Over 1.5 rate
79.0%
56.9%
Over 2.5 rate
54.8%
46.6%
Over 3.5 rate
40.3%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.15
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
32
2.03
PPG
1.38
61.1%
Win rate
34.4%
19.4%
Draw rate
34.4%
19.4%
Loss rate
31.3%
80.6%
Over 1.5 rate
78.1%
61.1%
Over 2.5 rate
46.9%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
34.4%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
36
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.88
Goals for per game
1.79
79.3%
Scoring rate
82.3%
51.7%
BTTS rate
53.2%
2.17
Goals for per game
1.34
86.1%
Scoring rate
75.0%
52.8%
BTTS rate
53.1%
2.50
Goals for per game
2.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
58
History Matches
62
1.88
Goals Mean
1.79
1.43
Goals Std
1.53
79.3%
Scored 1+ rate
82.3%
58.6%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
29.3%
Scored 3+ rate
19.4%
2.17
Venue Goals Mean
1.34
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.21
Goals against per game
1.24
63.8%
Conceding rate
62.9%
1.17
Goals against per game
1.38
58.3%
Conceding rate
68.8%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.50
75.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
58
History Matches
62
1.21
Conceded Mean
1.24
1.24
Conceded Std
1.27
34.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.7%
13.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.9%
1.17
Venue Conceded Mean
1.38
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
36.2%
Clean-sheet rate
37.1%
20.7%
Failed-to-score rate
17.7%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
13.9%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
36.2%
Clean-sheet rate
37.1%
20.7%
Failed-to-score rate
17.7%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
13.9%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
36.2%
Clean-sheet rate
37.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
62
0.93
Result entropy
0.96
1.92
Goal Difference Std
2.15
6.50
Stability score
3.54
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
61
24
Lead Matches
28
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.76
12
Trailing Matches
12
41.7%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
0.93
First Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
0.95
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.92
0.66
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.50
27
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.74
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.38
28
Long Rest History Matches
28
1.82
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.79
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.75
PPG
2.25
50.0%
Win rate
75.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.75
Current Competition PPG
2.25
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
5
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.21
Portability PPG Std
0.58
0.59
Portability PPG Range
1.49
70.55
Portability Score
46.28
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO4.91
PPG0.13
GF0.09
GA-0.04
PPG-0.50
PPG0.65
PPG-0.40
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate2.9%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate10.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-4
Goals Mean0.09
Goals Std-0.10
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate8.6%
Scored 3+ rate10.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.82
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.59
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean-0.04
Conceded Std-0.02
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate0.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.21
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.10
History Matches-4
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.22
Stability score2.97
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.24
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.28
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate11.9%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate8.3%
Trailing Win Rate8.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.37
Portability PPG Range-0.89
Portability Score24.27
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.36
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.04
Current Team ELO4.91
Current Opponent ELO-4.91
Current ELO Difference9.81
Expected score0.01
History Matches-4
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.48
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FC Liefering

W
Rapid Wien II1–2FC Liefering31 Oct · away
Pick: FC Liefering 47% · hit
D
FC Liefering2–2Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz24 Oct · home
Pick: FC Liefering 60% · missed
L
FC BW Linz4–1FC Liefering17 Oct · away
Pick: FC BW Linz 62% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Austria Salzburg

W
Austria Salzburg3–0SKU Amstetten30 Oct · home
Pick: Austria Salzburg 47% · hit
L
Austria Salzburg0–1FC BW Linz23 Oct · home
Pick: Austria Salzburg 40% · missed
W
Wacker Innsbruck0–1Austria Salzburg16 Oct · away
Pick: Wacker Innsbruck 48% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

FC Liefering and Austria Salzburg meet in 2. Liga on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 17:30 UTC. The match is played at Red Bull Arena, Salzburg. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: FC Liefering win 37.5%, draw 27.5%, Austria Salzburg win 34.9%. The pick is FC Liefering win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.1%. Both teams to score: 58.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.