ScoreProb
Eredivisie Netherlands Round 12 2026

ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam

ADO Den Haag Home · Elo 1,618
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sparta Rotterdam Away · Elo 1,507
WerkTalent Stadion, Den Haag Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: ADO Den Haag win
ADO Den Haag winPick
50.0%
Draw
20.7%
Sparta Rotterdam win
29.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.4%
No39.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.6%
Under 2.538.4%

How much we know

ADO Den Haag history68 matches
Sparta Rotterdam history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 17:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why ADO Den Haag are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • ADO Den Haag are rated 111 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,618 against 1,507. On rating alone ADO Den Haag would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • ADO Den Haag score more

    2.13 goals a game over 68 matches for ADO Den Haag, against 1.58 over 65 for Sparta Rotterdam.

  • ADO Den Haag concede fewer

    ADO Den Haag concede 1.18 a game, Sparta Rotterdam 1.55.

  • ADO Den Haag games more often go over 2.5 goals

    68% of ADO Den Haag matches, against 55% for Sparta Rotterdam. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
ADO Den Haag
Sparta Rotterdam
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1618.2
ELO
1507.3
68
ELO · Matches
65
1618.2
Current Team ELO
1507.3
1507.3
Current Opponent ELO
1618.2
111.0
Current ELO Difference
-111.0
0.65
Expected score
0.35
68
History Matches
65
0.08
Residual Mean
0.01
55.99
Overperformance
50.52
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.80
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.20
2.20
Goals for per game
1.80
1.50
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.25
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.57
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.55
Overall performance9 signals
90
68
Matches
65
2.06
PPG
1.43
64.7%
Win rate
40.0%
11.8%
Draw rate
23.1%
23.5%
Loss rate
36.9%
77.9%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
67.6%
Over 2.5 rate
55.4%
41.2%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.22
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
32
2.06
PPG
1.38
65.6%
Win rate
40.6%
9.4%
Draw rate
15.6%
25.0%
Loss rate
43.8%
78.1%
Over 1.5 rate
81.3%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
68.8%
40.6%
Over 3.5 rate
46.9%
1.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.56
32
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.13
Goals for per game
1.58
83.8%
Scoring rate
78.5%
57.4%
BTTS rate
50.8%
2.13
Goals for per game
1.69
84.4%
Scoring rate
78.1%
59.4%
BTTS rate
53.1%
0.67
Goals for per game
2.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
68
History Matches
65
2.13
Goals Mean
1.58
1.57
Goals Std
1.42
83.8%
Scored 1+ rate
78.5%
58.8%
Scored 2+ rate
41.5%
41.2%
Scored 3+ rate
21.5%
2.13
Venue Goals Mean
1.69
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.18
Goals against per game
1.55
69.1%
Conceding rate
69.2%
1.22
Goals against per game
1.72
65.6%
Conceding rate
71.9%
3.00
Goals against per game
1.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
68
History Matches
65
1.18
Conceded Mean
1.55
1.10
Conceded Std
1.47
30.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.5%
13.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
30.8%
1.22
Venue Conceded Mean
1.72
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.9%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
16.2%
Failed-to-score rate
21.5%
34.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
15.6%
Failed-to-score rate
21.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
30.9%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
16.2%
Failed-to-score rate
21.5%
34.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
15.6%
Failed-to-score rate
21.9%
30.9%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
68
History Matches
65
0.80
Result entropy
0.98
1.91
Goal Difference Std
2.22
20.45
Stability score
2.35
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
68
Eligible Matches
65
32
Lead Matches
22
93.8%
Lead Win Rate
81.8%
0.96
Lead Points Retention
0.86
12
Trailing Matches
20
33.3%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
5.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
68
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
0.93
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
1.21
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.02
0.66
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.98
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.31
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
9
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.78
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
37
Normal Rest History Matches
35
2.14
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.29
21
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.71
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.00
PPG
1.33
0.0%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
100.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.33
-2.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.33
7
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.92
Portability PPG Std
0.27
2.50
Portability PPG Range
0.74
35.18
Portability Score
65.10
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
68
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO111.0
PPG0.63
GF0.55
GA-0.38
PPG-1.33
PPG0.69
PPG-0.40
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate0.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate6.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.55
Goals Std0.15
Scored 1+ rate5.4%
Scored 2+ rate17.3%
Scored 3+ rate19.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.44
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.69
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.38
Conceded Std-0.37
Clean-sheet rate0.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.08
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.18
Goal Difference Std-0.31
Stability score18.10
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.02
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate11.9%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate13.3%
Trailing Win Rate11.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.36
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.32
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.67
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.65
Portability PPG Range1.76
Portability Score-29.92
Rest days-0.73
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches6
Short Rest Points Per Match0.78
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.85
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.21
Current Team ELO111.0
Current Opponent ELO-111.0
Current ELO Difference221.9
Expected score0.31
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance5.47
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

ADO Den Haag

L
PEC Zwolle1–0ADO Den Haag1 Nov · away
Pick: PEC Zwolle 50% · hit
L
ADO Den Haag2–3Heerenveen24 Oct · home
Pick: ADO Den Haag 49% · missed
W
ADO Den Haag2–1PSV Eindhoven17 Oct · home
Pick: PSV Eindhoven 51% · missed
D
Feyenoord2–2ADO Den Haag30 Aug · away
Pick: Feyenoord 66% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Sparta Rotterdam

W
Groningen2–3Sparta Rotterdam1 Nov · away
Pick: Sparta Rotterdam 38% · hit
L
Sparta Rotterdam1–2Ajax25 Oct · home
Pick: Ajax 49% · hit
W
Sparta Rotterdam3–2Willem II17 Oct · home
Pick: Sparta Rotterdam 46% · hit
L
Excelsior2–1Sparta Rotterdam29 Aug · away
Pick: Excelsior 54% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

ADO Den Haag and Sparta Rotterdam meet in Eredivisie on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:45 UTC. The match is played at WerkTalent Stadion, Den Haag. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: ADO Den Haag win 50.0%, draw 20.7%, Sparta Rotterdam win 29.3%. The pick is ADO Den Haag win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.6%. Both teams to score: 60.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.