ScoreProb
Eredivisie Netherlands Round 12 2026

AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen

AZ Alkmaar Home · Elo 1,665
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Groningen Away · Elo 1,499
AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: AZ Alkmaar win
AZ Alkmaar winPick
71.6%
Draw
17.5%
Groningen win
10.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.5%
No45.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.573.0%
Under 2.527.0%

How much we know

AZ Alkmaar history95 matches
Groningen history63 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (71.6%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why AZ Alkmaar are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • AZ Alkmaar are rated 166 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,665 against 1,499. On rating alone AZ Alkmaar would be expected to take 72% of the points on offer.

  • AZ Alkmaar score more

    2.02 goals a game over 95 matches for AZ Alkmaar, against 1.46 over 63 for Groningen.

  • AZ Alkmaar concede fewer

    AZ Alkmaar concede 1.29 a game, Groningen 1.60.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    66% of AZ Alkmaar matches, against 62% for Groningen. The model puts this match at 73% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
AZ Alkmaar
Groningen
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1665.0
ELO
1498.6
95
ELO · Matches
63
1665.0
Current Team ELO
1498.6
1498.6
Current Opponent ELO
1665.0
166.4
Current ELO Difference
-166.4
0.72
Expected score
0.28
95
History Matches
63
0.09
Residual Mean
0.00
57.80
Overperformance
50.31
0.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
2.00
3.00
Goals for per game
1.60
0.60
Goals against per game
1.40
100.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.40
PPG
1.30
2.80
Goals for per game
1.30
1.10
Goals against per game
1.90
70.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.27
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.51
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.49
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.15
Overall performance9 signals
90
95
Matches
63
1.80
PPG
1.32
51.6%
Win rate
38.1%
25.3%
Draw rate
17.5%
23.2%
Loss rate
44.4%
85.3%
Over 1.5 rate
87.3%
66.3%
Over 2.5 rate
61.9%
47.4%
Over 3.5 rate
34.9%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
Venue performance10 signals
100
52
Matches
30
2.10
PPG
1.03
59.6%
Win rate
30.0%
30.8%
Draw rate
13.3%
9.6%
Loss rate
56.7%
88.5%
Over 1.5 rate
93.3%
67.3%
Over 2.5 rate
53.3%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
52
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.02
Goals for per game
1.46
88.4%
Scoring rate
77.8%
58.9%
BTTS rate
61.9%
2.33
Goals for per game
1.23
94.2%
Scoring rate
76.7%
63.5%
BTTS rate
63.3%
2.67
Goals for per game
2.33
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
100.0%
95
History Matches
63
2.02
Goals Mean
1.46
1.32
Goals Std
1.22
88.4%
Scored 1+ rate
77.8%
61.1%
Scored 2+ rate
42.9%
33.7%
Scored 3+ rate
15.9%
2.33
Venue Goals Mean
1.23
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.29
Goals against per game
1.60
68.4%
Conceding rate
79.4%
1.10
Goals against per game
1.93
67.3%
Conceding rate
86.7%
0.33
Goals against per game
2.33
33.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
95
History Matches
63
1.29
Conceded Mean
1.60
1.21
Conceded Std
1.30
36.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.0%
17.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.6%
1.10
Venue Conceded Mean
1.93
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
20.6%
11.6%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
32.7%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
5.8%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
20.6%
11.6%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
32.7%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
5.8%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
20.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
95
History Matches
63
0.94
Result entropy
0.94
1.95
Goal Difference Std
1.99
6.44
Stability score
5.99
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
95
Eligible Matches
63
38
Lead Matches
19
76.3%
Lead Win Rate
89.5%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.89
22
Trailing Matches
18
31.8%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
18.2%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
95
Halftime Coverage Matches
63
0.88
First Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
1.14
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.92
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.05
Rest days
77.14
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
27
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.70
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.25
49
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.92
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.38
18
Long Rest History Matches
34
1.72
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.29
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
3.00
PPG
2.00
100.0%
Win rate
66.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.94
3
Current Competition Matches
3
3.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
2.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
10
Competition Season Count
6
9
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.50
Portability PPG Std
0.37
1.60
Portability PPG Range
1.00
50.06
Portability Score
57.68
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
95
Clean History Matches
63
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO166.4
PPG0.48
GF0.56
GA-0.31
PPG1.00
PPG1.06
PPG1.00
PPG1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches32
Clean-sheet rate10.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches22
Clean-sheet rate19.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches32
Goals Mean0.56
Goals Std0.10
Scored 1+ rate10.6%
Scored 2+ rate18.2%
Scored 3+ rate17.8%
Venue Goals Mean1.09
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.29
History Matches32
Conceded Mean-0.31
Conceded Std-0.09
Clean-sheet rate10.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.84
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.38
History Matches32
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.04
Stability score0.45
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.67
Eligible Matches32
Lead Matches19
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate15.2%
Trailing Win Rate18.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches32
First Half Goals For Mean0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean0.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.33
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count5
Portability PPG Std0.13
Portability PPG Range0.60
Portability Score-7.63
Rest days0.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches23
Short Rest Points Per Match0.45
Normal Rest History Matches25
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.54
Long Rest History Matches-16
Long Rest Points Per Match0.43
Current Team ELO166.4
Current Opponent ELO-166.4
Current ELO Difference332.8
Expected score0.45
History Matches32
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance7.49
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.26

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

AZ Alkmaar

L
Ajax1–0AZ Alkmaar31 Oct · away
Pick: AZ Alkmaar 47% · missed
L
AZ Alkmaar0–2Twente25 Oct · home
Pick: AZ Alkmaar 63% · missed
W
Ararat-Armenia0–4AZ Alkmaar22 Oct · away
Pick: AZ Alkmaar 42% · hit
D
Cambuur2–2AZ Alkmaar18 Oct · away
Pick: AZ Alkmaar 57% · missed
W
AZ Alkmaar2–1Hapoel Beer Sheva15 Oct · home
Pick: AZ Alkmaar 49% · hit

Groningen

L
Groningen2–3Sparta Rotterdam1 Nov · home
Pick: Sparta Rotterdam 38% · hit
L
Groningen0–2Emmen29 Oct · home
Pick: Groningen 46% · missed
D
NEC Nijmegen2–2Groningen25 Oct · away
Pick: NEC Nijmegen 64% · missed
L
Groningen2–5Ajax18 Oct · home
Pick: Ajax 54% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

AZ Alkmaar and Groningen meet in Eredivisie on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:45 UTC. The match is played at AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: AZ Alkmaar win 71.6%, draw 17.5%, Groningen win 10.9%. The pick is AZ Alkmaar win. Over 2.5 goals: 73.0%. Both teams to score: 54.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.